CAMELOT FANTASIES
Camelot Tennis Universe => TENNIS INSTRUCTION CENTER => Topic started by: Slasher1985 on September 05, 2013, 01:38:14 am
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There has been a lot of chatter lately on this. Nadal will 95% get a penalty for this withdrawal, but about 80% of the penalties ever given have been lifted after 1 or 2 weeks (Haas' after 6 months) due to a player appeal. This is one of the worst rules ATP have deemed worthy to be in the rulebook so it's impossible to anticipate with 100% accuracy if the year end rankings will feature Nadal with a penalty or not.
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So is Rafa going to get a zero point penalty and/or fine for withdrawing from Basel and not traveling there for the promotional activities requirement?
According to the rulebook (Section VIII D.):
"Players shall not have the ranking penalty assessed if they complete the requirements for “promotional activities”; are out of competition for 30 days; or the withdrawal complied with the requirements for an on-site withdrawal. Players may appeal withdrawal penalties to a Tribunal who will determine whether the penalties are affirmed or set aside."
So, he could theoretically avoid that penalty by also withdrawing from Paris and WTF and submitting a note from the doctor, i.e. per the OOC 30 day+ consecutive rule? Though I doubt he would miss the WTF just to avoid the penalty.
Another loophole is the vague "withdrawal complied with the requirements of an on-site withdrawal", whatever that means.
Finally, he can appeal for discretionary review before a tribunal, which is again pretty vague and I don't think it is transparent, though I could be wrong. Is there somewhere where these decisions are publicly published? I don't know. It seems that we only know the end result once the rankings have been published for a period of time.
So theoretically, he could submit a doctors note to the tribunal that said he needed complete rest, no travel, no activity for a week or 10 days, and the tribunal could affirm it or set it aside.
I'm going to guess he will not get fined, but may get the 0 point penalty...
But anyway, this process is a thorn in the side of automated rankings... :)
Manual adjustment seems a necessary evil.
Respectfully,
masterclass
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we missed this tennis prodigy.
he is really going to be something if what they say is right.
he came out of the shadows to showcase his talents. a great coach and a lot of hard work should get him to where he wants to go.
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Interesting stuff there general.
One thing on the pronunciation though. Karen the male name is not pronounced in the same manner as Karen the female name:
Karen (female) /ˈkærən
Karen (male) / KARR-ən
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this kid is 6 foot 6.
some say that he could be top 20 by the end of 2015:
At a time when there are 29 players over 30 years of age in the Top 100 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, it is refreshing to witness a teenager making headlines on the ATP World Tour.
Karen Khachanov (pronounced "Karen Hachanoff") only left high school in May this year. But aged 17 and 6’6”, the Russian is already being touted as a star of the future.
Former World No. 1 Yevgeny Kafelnikov, who now works as a Kremlin Cup by Bank of Moscow tournament manager, told ATPWorldTour.com, “He will be Top 20 [in the Emirates ATP Rankings] by end of 2015, and that’s my prediction.”
This week, Khachanov has beaten Albert Ramos and Janko Tipsarevic en route to the Moscow quarter-finals. It is just his second ATP World Tour tournament and the third senior-level event of his career.
The last 17 year old to reach the last eight of an ATP World Tour event was Kei Nishikori in July 2007 at Indianapolis.
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you are so right general.
I wonder how they got that wrong.
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One thing though. The guy in the picture in that article of yours, CD... that's not Khachanov. ;D
http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/10/42/Moscow-Wednesday-Seppi-Tipsarevic.aspx (http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/10/42/Moscow-Wednesday-Seppi-Tipsarevic.aspx)
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this teen is being called a prodigy:
http://www.sportinglife.com/tennis/news/article/553/8975780/tipsarevic-upset-by-russian-teen
hard to believe that a kid ranked 808th in the world can derail a top talent like tipsy.
the kid blasted 14 aces in this match.
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jerzy, kyrgios, and dimitrov are potential top 10 players.
they have the talent.
(https://www.camelotfantasies.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1322.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fu572%2Fspartacus120%2Fspartan%2520images%2Fthis%2520is%2520sparta%2Fsparatus-1%2Fdimi-300_zpsf4bb3552.jpg&hash=16770b1ccb20dc1b77339663c0f92b1915cebfe8) (http://s1322.photobucket.com/user/spartacus120/media/spartan%20images/this%20is%20sparta/sparatus-1/dimi-300_zpsf4bb3552.jpg.html)
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affirmative general. he is another one who shows some potential.
we should throw another name into the mix: dimitrov.
dimitrov needs to take his fitness to the next level and he also needs to start playing more smaller clay events. that will take him to where he wants to go.
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I cant really think of any others. perhaps there is somebody in the pipeline in spain.
Probably mean Carreno Busta here. Another great perspective for the tour, honestly.
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nick kyrgios and jerzy have superb potential . i believe they will be heard from in the next 2-3 years.
the game has changed. now there is a maturation process involved for the youngsters. there are too many experienced sharks on the tour so it takes a while before you can start challenging them.
average age of a touring pro in the top 100 is near 27.
I cant really think of any others. perhaps there is somebody in the pipeline in spain.
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Nick Kyrgios, singles ranking #180, is a big 18 year old, and certainly has potential. He's listed at 6' 4", 171 lbs (78 kg). Once he puts on a bit more muscle mass (say to 185-190 lbs) he may show greater power/endurance, but that might take about 3 years. Let's see how he does in his native land and residence at the start of next year. :)
I'd like to see him go through qualies and make it to the second or third round at the Australian Open, but it's not easy.
He made it through the qualies at the US Open, but had to play "The Wall", David Ferrer in the first round and lost.
Here are some highlights of that match:
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VZWKTbBBfo)
Respectfully,
masterclass
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I am gonna go out on a limb and mention Kyrgios. Not exactly next year, but starting 2015, he will be challenging the top positions I'm sure.
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Any particular younger players, or are you talking as a group?
Respectfully,
masterclass
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That is a great analysis, thanks.
I am surprised as well at the Federer choice, but I agree he should be written off just yet. I see greater things in some of the younger players (younger than Dimitrov and Raonic) that will soon make us see that their generation had better development.
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Excellent and welcome thread. Thanks Marv.
I'm "predicting" Nadal will hold #1 for about 43 weeks (until just after the US Open). If he does well at Wimbledon, it will obviously be longer. If he does poorly at the Australian Open or Roland Garros and some of the other Jan-June tournaments he might lose it between Wimbledon and the US Open. But who the heck really knows. As we've seen things can change in tennis in just 6 months.
Historically, Rafa seems to be on an approximate 14 month on and 7 month off cycle. So he's been on for over 8 months now. If he continues his pattern of rather heavy play, even on hard courts, he may do well into the Australian Open, but I believe he then risks Roland Garros, similar to 2008-2009.
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Roger Federer will be the player to take #1 again. I think that those who have written him off (again), just don't realize that these days it is difficult to be at a high level for a long time. He was amazing at age 30-31 where he won 9 titles between Nov 2011 and August 2012 (Basel - Cincinnati) and returned to World #1 for another 17 weeks.
I think this year's lull was done purposely and that he'll come back with an all out attack in 2014. He can gain points just about everywhere. Then, he will relax in 2015, and have a focused attack in 2016. That's about as far as I can see. Of course that is predicated on if he can have relatively good health during this time. His back is a concern. As he gets older it is more difficult to manage and recover from incidents of spasms. Of course there is a certainty that one day, he will not have what it takes to get back to the top anymore. Many think that is the case now. I'm not so sure. We will see.
Unfortunately, I think Andy Murray is done winning majors and will have sporadic success in other big tournaments. He said that he would never be able to top winning Wimbledon. Nothing wrong with that. But it indicates to me that he will have difficulty motivating himself enough to continue winning majors. But we will see. Maybe Lendl can help instill yet greater ambition. I sincerely hope Andy makes me wrong. But to do that, I believe he absolutely has to improve his second serve. It's a major weakness in his arsenal and puts too much pressure on his 1st serve.
Djokovic is playing almost too consistently, but not well enough, if you know what I mean, to have a great chance at #1 next year. I think that these days, you have to have a few months strategic lull to allow you to gain points easier, make yourself the hunter instead of the hunted, easing pressure on yourself, and climb the ladder to #1. It becomes very cyclical. With his consistency, Novak has to up his play and confidence to 2011 levels to have a chance to gain much. But if he gives himself a bit of a lull in 2014, then I think 2015 could be an excellent year for him.
I don't think the usual other top 10er's have any chance, except for perhaps del Potro, if he can schedule a bit better, stay healthy and somehow rise another level.
Other than that, it's only the excellent youngsters that have a chance to break into the top echelon. But they have to avoid injury, become more consistent, and go up another level. I'm talking about Raonic, Carreno Busta, Janowicz, Dimitrov. Again, they have to get into the top 10 first. A big result at a major would do the trick of a couple of them.
I know Carreno Busta is only ranked 66th and Dimitrov has fallen off to 28th, but they are only 22 and I still see great potential in both of them. I think they could both stand to put a bit of meat on themselves. They are both 6'2 (188 cm) and yet weigh under 170 pounds (78 kg). More targeted slow-twitch muscle fiber mass could obviously help their endurance.
I think that with a little more work on his backhand and return, Raonic can be a force at the hard court majors, and Janowicz is an obvious threat at Wimbledon especially and the others, but he needs to mature a bit and improve shot selection to gain more consistency.
I think these youngsters are still about 2-3 years away from making a huge impact, but perhaps it could come sooner for some.
I see no one else having a chance at the moment.
Respectfully,
masterclass
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fantastic thread.
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there is such a history of domination in this sport. a handful of players have dominated the sport.
in overall scheme of things, there have not really many players who have achieved the top rank of #1.
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Would be interesting to see a short No. 1 streak for once. A few World No. 1 changes for a while is good for the sport. We also desperately need a new World No. 1, but Nadal and Djokovic just won't have it. ;D
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I was going to ask you this very question myself general.
can nadal hold on to this for a while?
he has nothing to defend at the Australian open and also at Wimbledon.
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We have a new World Number 1 streak, folks.
Nadal starts the 91st World Number 1 streak of the Computer Rankings. How long do you folks think it will last?
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I think nole will lose his #1 rank this year. there is a lot to defend still.
he has to make the final of the u.s. open which I don't see happening.
he has to defend WTF. I think andy murray will return recharged and refurbished for that.
and roger is always a huge threat at WTF.
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what is the verdict on vilas?
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what a fantastic idea general slasher.
you are bringing valuable service to tennis world with this work.
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The Live ATP rankings thread is here. ;D
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