CAMELOT FANTASIES

Camelot Tennis Universe => General Pro Player Discussions => Topic started by: Clay Death on April 18, 2014, 09:37:57 pm

Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on June 03, 2014, 10:18:53 am
rafa says his back issues are flaring up again.


his average serve speed today was 103 MPH. some 2nd serves were at 81 MPH.


he failed to get off the hard courts when he absolutely had to. there was no need to linger around for 10 days at indian wells and then another 10 days at Miami masters.

he should have gone home to rest, relax, and train on the soft clay. and also work on strengthening the back.

He should have, considering the approaching clay season. This is the busiest part of the season, now he has to play with a bad back, and there will be days when it's not doing so well.

But, things work out the way they're supposed to, I guess.

At some point the back will have the last say, and with Wimbledon right around the corner, then the hard court swing, the timing couldn't be worse.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on June 02, 2014, 09:37:33 am
 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on June 02, 2014, 01:18:42 am
if me and general masterclass had been 2 of his other uncles and also assigned to be his coaches, Rafa would have never lost a match on the red clay.

imagine rafa with 3 uncles as his team of coaches.

general masterclass is one of the finest  tennis analysts on the planet. he was right when he said that rafa could have used somebody like muster's fitness coach.

so who got muster's fitness coach? nole did and now look at him. nole also does not have a million other outside activities during the season. he just focuses on his game and his fitness 7 days a week.




I also said very specifically that what ails rafa is 3 things but the single greatest thing that ails him is the drop in fitness.

1. drop in fitness
2. drop in match play and practice on the red clay: clay is the wellspring from which he flows
3. lack of proper focus for clay and too much infatuation with the hard courts and all the other activities outside of tennis

sooner or later it had to cost him and that is what is happening this year.

clay had always saved him but you knew a day would come when that lack of proper detail and preparation for clay would cost him.

now he is going to need just the right luck to take RG. he needs to get rid of ferru in straights or 4 sets and leave the court without making his back worse. he will need a similar performance in the semis.


he needs nole to be slightly off in the final. nole is serving too big and returning even bigger. that gives him an instant edge and makes the assignment slightly trickier for rafa.


rafa just has to get rid of him in straights or 4 sets in the final and I think he will.


I give rafa the edge because he is 8-0 in the finals. nole will go in with some doubts. those doubts will start to weigh after rafa nails the first set.

I'm going to report you to Rafa and Uncle Toni, LOL!

You are too mad at him.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on June 01, 2014, 03:22:13 pm
if me and general masterclass had been 2 of his other uncles and also assigned to be his coaches, Rafa would have never lost a match on the red clay.

imagine rafa with 3 uncles as his team of coaches.

general masterclass is one of the finest  tennis analysts on the planet. he was right when he said that rafa could have used somebody like muster's fitness coach.

so who got muster's fitness coach? nole did and now look at him. nole also does not have a million other outside activities during the season. he just focuses on his game and his fitness 7 days a week.




I also said very specifically that what ails rafa is 3 things but the single greatest thing that ails him is the drop in fitness.

1. drop in fitness
2. drop in match play and practice on the red clay: clay is the wellspring from which he flows
3. lack of proper focus for clay and too much infatuation with the hard courts and all the other activities outside of tennis

sooner or later it had to cost him and that is what is happening this year.

clay had always saved him but you knew a day would come when that lack of proper detail and preparation for clay would cost him.

now he is going to need just the right luck to take RG. he needs to get rid of ferru in straights or 4 sets and leave the court without making his back worse. he will need a similar performance in the semis.


he needs nole to be slightly off in the final. nole is serving too big and returning even bigger. that gives him an instant edge and makes the assignment slightly trickier for rafa.


rafa just has to get rid of him in straights or 4 sets in the final and I think he will.


I give rafa the edge because he is 8-0 in the finals. nole will go in with some doubts. those doubts will start to weigh after rafa nails the first set.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on June 01, 2014, 07:01:12 am
rafa says his back issues are flaring up again.


his average serve speed today was 103 MPH. some 2nd serves were at 81 MPH.


he failed to get off the hard courts when he absolutely had to. there was no need to linger around for 10 days at indian wells and then another 10 days at Miami masters.

he should have gone home to rest, relax, and train on the soft clay. and also work on strengthening the back.

It definitely wouldn't have hurt him to take your advice. This season has been a mini-disaster for him, at least by his standards.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 31, 2014, 02:13:04 pm
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/05/nadal-extends-french-open-win-streak-31/51625/#.U4opAWdOV9A
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 31, 2014, 02:08:56 pm
rafa says his back issues are flaring up again.


his average serve speed today was 103 MPH. some 2nd serves were at 81 MPH.


he failed to get off the hard courts when he absolutely had to. there was no need to linger around for 10 days at indian wells and then another 10 days at Miami masters.

he should have gone home to rest, relax, and train on the soft clay. and also work on strengthening the back.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 26, 2014, 11:24:42 pm
thanks for posting the awesome stats general masterclass.


there are some stats that don't get revealed. for example the returns during the clutch moments in the game and the match.


rafa used to be pretty damn tough in the clutch.



even my dad made this remark the other day. and he does not even watch all that much tennis. he said rafa is not as calm as he used to be in the clutch.


well that much is pretty obvious; there are simply too many things bothering him on the court in key moments.


but that being said, where he is really getting beat is at his own game: he is getting hustled off the ground by the lesser players.

he used to hustle them all off the ground.

take the rome masters final for instance. nole basically took control of the baseline battle in the last 2 sets.


so the matter is that of insufficient practice and insufficient training on the fitness front. nadal is not that old. if he can get back to focusing on his game and his fitness, he can start beating them all again.


nole does not allow for too many distractions and works like a dog on his game and his fitness 7 days a week.

in fact a lot of players like milos, ferru, dimitrov, and the others have stepped on their fitness in order to take it to the next level.


I am seeing a drop in nadal's supreme fitness levels. he needs his supreme fitness and his physicality. that gives him a decisive edge out there in the trenches.

if he can play on the hard courts then he can step p on his fitness also.

also he should be training longer and harder on the red clay on year around basis. that will put him right back in business.


so he wont have to make stupid remarks like these:

1. "get used to it" on his losing and having trouble out there
2. "I don't know if I can win another major again"



that is fuel for the competition. and it also does not do much for your own confidence.


ferru and almagro hear these remarks and then go out there and push him around. nadal had not lose to them on the red clay in decades.


it is a confidence issue only because he is making it a confidence issue. of course it hurts your confidence if you getting bossed around in the baseline rallies by the players that have no business taking more than 2-3 games off you in a set on the red clay.


but what has led to that dropped confidence is just 2 simple factors:


1. he refuses to put in the work/hard yards on the practice courts like he used to
2. he refuses to train harder and longer on the fitness front to keep up with the competition


there is another factor: too many outside distractions and too many extracurricular activities which can wait. soon he will have over 60 years to do all that outside stuff.


how many players will ever find themselves in a position nadal is to challenge history? I will say just one and that is nadal.


the sport has become too demanding. nobody is ever going get near the slam record again.

nadal seems to be walking away from perhaps the greatest challenge ever offered an athlete. he needs to embrace it and then go after it.

He isn't as calm as he used to be, that's for sure. I hadn't seen #2 listed above, what an odd statement. Maybe he has wearied of the tennis for now and is just going through the motions. It sure looks like it on court, but then again, hasn't Rafa always done this? Play outstanding one year and so-so the next?

He has been battling for a decade now; that has to be tiring. First he had to take on Federer in his ingenue stage all by himself, then the two supremely gifted players Nole and Andy in what started in his prime.

There's more pressure on Rafa than on any other player. Fed has made his mark and can now rest on his laurels. He's set the bar so high that it's going to be difficult to catch him anyway. And while he was battling for so many years straight Nole and Andy weren't doing too much. Now, they have risen to their proper positions in the game.

Can Rafa really be expected to continue fighting year in and year out without rest? I'm not so sure. I think he's tired, physically and mentally. It'll take a great push to go after the record at this point. Does he even want to? He also has physical issues to deal with as well.

I want him to play as long as he wants, and walk away when it's no longer relevant to him. Things work out the way they're supposed to in. We'll just have to wait and see.



I think you are right. mental fatigue and the wear and tear is starting to show a little bit. he has doing this for  a long time.

still he is no ordinary athlete. he can still go far in the sport he wants to.




lets just hope it all works out just right for him.


all he really needs is to protect his turf. 2 more RG crowns and he can sail into the sunset.


nobody will ever be able to approach that record.

he says he wants to play and compete for a long time so why not just keep winning slams on natural surfaces. he can do it and I think he will.


I hear he wants to go to compete at the next Olympics also in 2016.

I think Rafa will surprise us all. I definitely think he will continue to win, but in all things there has to be lulls, and this is just a lull in his career. He's due. He's done a lot in the game. So, I just have my fingers crossed that everything ng works out to his satisfaction. Rafa will always be my favorite player. There is no one like him.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 26, 2014, 10:13:50 pm
thanks for posting the awesome stats general masterclass.


there are some stats that don't get revealed. for example the returns during the clutch moments in the game and the match.


rafa used to be pretty damn tough in the clutch.



even my dad made this remark the other day. and he does not even watch all that much tennis. he said rafa is not as calm as he used to be in the clutch.


well that much is pretty obvious; there are simply too many things bothering him on the court in key moments.


but that being said, where he is really getting beat is at his own game: he is getting hustled off the ground by the lesser players.

he used to hustle them all off the ground.

take the rome masters final for instance. nole basically took control of the baseline battle in the last 2 sets.


so the matter is that of insufficient practice and insufficient training on the fitness front. nadal is not that old. if he can get back to focusing on his game and his fitness, he can start beating them all again.


nole does not allow for too many distractions and works like a dog on his game and his fitness 7 days a week.

in fact a lot of players like milos, ferru, dimitrov, and the others have stepped on their fitness in order to take it to the next level.


I am seeing a drop in nadal's supreme fitness levels. he needs his supreme fitness and his physicality. that gives him a decisive edge out there in the trenches.

if he can play on the hard courts then he can step p on his fitness also.

also he should be training longer and harder on the red clay on year around basis. that will put him right back in business.


so he wont have to make stupid remarks like these:

1. "get used to it" on his losing and having trouble out there
2. "I don't know if I can win another major again"



that is fuel for the competition. and it also does not do much for your own confidence.


ferru and almagro hear these remarks and then go out there and push him around. nadal had not lose to them on the red clay in decades.


it is a confidence issue only because he is making it a confidence issue. of course it hurts your confidence if you getting bossed around in the baseline rallies by the players that have no business taking more than 2-3 games off you in a set on the red clay.


but what has led to that dropped confidence is just 2 simple factors:


1. he refuses to put in the work/hard yards on the practice courts like he used to
2. he refuses to train harder and longer on the fitness front to keep up with the competition


there is another factor: too many outside distractions and too many extracurricular activities which can wait. soon he will have over 60 years to do all that outside stuff.


how many players will ever find themselves in a position nadal is to challenge history? I will say just one and that is nadal.


the sport has become too demanding. nobody is ever going get near the slam record again.

nadal seems to be walking away from perhaps the greatest challenge ever offered an athlete. he needs to embrace it and then go after it.

He isn't as calm as he used to be, that's for sure. I hadn't seen #2 listed above, what an odd statement. Maybe he has wearied of the tennis for now and is just going through the motions. It sure looks like it on court, but then again, hasn't Rafa always done this? Play outstanding one year and so-so the next?

He has been battling for a decade now; that has to be tiring. First he had to take on Federer in his ingenue stage all by himself, then the two supremely gifted players Nole and Andy in what started in his prime.

There's more pressure on Rafa than on any other player. Fed has made his mark and can now rest on his laurels. He's set the bar so high that it's going to be difficult to catch him anyway. And while he was battling for so many years straight Nole and Andy weren't doing too much. Now, they have risen to their proper positions in the game.

Can Rafa really be expected to continue fighting year in and year out without rest? I'm not so sure. I think he's tired, physically and mentally. It'll take a great push to go after the record at this point. Does he even want to? He also has physical issues to deal with as well.

I want him to play as long as he wants, and walk away when it's no longer relevant to him. Things work out the way they're supposed to in. We'll just have to wait and see.



I think you are right. mental fatigue and the wear and tear is starting to show a little bit. he has doing this for  a long time.

still he is no ordinary athlete. he can still go far in the sport if he wants to.




lets just hope it all works out just right for him.


all he really needs is to protect his turf. 2 more RG crowns and he can sail into the sunset.


nobody will ever be able to approach that record.

he says he wants to play and compete for a long time so why not just keep winning slams on natural surfaces. he can do it and I think he will.


I hear he wants to go to compete at the next Olympics also in 2016.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 26, 2014, 07:06:37 pm
I just found this on twitter.

here is one of his training sessions from Paris:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsFZMGaFSdY&feature=youtu.be
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 25, 2014, 06:28:55 pm
thanks for posting the awesome stats general masterclass.


there are some stats that don't get revealed. for example the returns during the clutch moments in the game and the match.


rafa used to be pretty damn tough in the clutch.



even my dad made this remark the other day. and he does not even watch all that much tennis. he said rafa is not as calm as he used to be in the clutch.


well that much is pretty obvious; there are simply too many things bothering him on the court in key moments.


but that being said, where he is really getting beat is at his own game: he is getting hustled off the ground by the lesser players.

he used to hustle them all off the ground.

take the rome masters final for instance. nole basically took control of the baseline battle in the last 2 sets.


so the matter is that of insufficient practice and insufficient training on the fitness front. nadal is not that old. if he can get back to focusing on his game and his fitness, he can start beating them all again.


nole does not allow for too many distractions and works like a dog on his game and his fitness 7 days a week.

in fact a lot of players like milos, ferru, dimitrov, and the others have stepped on their fitness in order to take it to the next level.


I am seeing a drop in nadal's supreme fitness levels. he needs his supreme fitness and his physicality. that gives him a decisive edge out there in the trenches.

if he can play on the hard courts then he can step p on his fitness also.

also he should be training longer and harder on the red clay on year around basis. that will put him right back in business.


so he wont have to make stupid remarks like these:

1. "get used to it" on his losing and having trouble out there
2. "I don't know if I can win another major again"



that is fuel for the competition. and it also does not do much for your own confidence.


ferru and almagro hear these remarks and then go out there and push him around. nadal had not lose to them on the red clay in decades.


it is a confidence issue only because he is making it a confidence issue. of course it hurts your confidence if you getting bossed around in the baseline rallies by the players that have no business taking more than 2-3 games off you in a set on the red clay.


but what has led to that dropped confidence is just 2 simple factors:


1. he refuses to put in the work/hard yards on the practice courts like he used to
2. he refuses to train harder and longer on the fitness front to keep up with the competition


there is another factor: too many outside distractions and too many extracurricular activities which can wait. soon he will have over 60 years to do all that outside stuff.


how many players will ever find themselves in a position nadal is to challenge history? I will say just one and that is nadal.


the sport has become too demanding. nobody is ever going get near the slam record again.

nadal seems to be walking away from perhaps the greatest challenge ever offered an athlete. he needs to embrace it and then go after it.

He isn't as calm as he used to be, that's for sure. I hadn't seen #2 listed above, what an odd statement. Maybe he has wearied of the tennis for now and is just going through the motions. It sure looks like it on court, but then again, hasn't Rafa always done this? Play outstanding one year and so-so the next?

He has been battling for a decade now; that has to be tiring. First he had to take on Federer in his ingenue stage all by himself, then the two supremely gifted players Nole and Andy in what started in his prime.

There's more pressure on Rafa than on any other player. Fed has made his mark and can now rest on his laurels. He's set the bar so high that it's going to be difficult to catch him anyway. And while he was battling for so many years straight Nole and Andy weren't doing too much. Now, they have risen to their proper positions in the game.

Can Rafa really be expected to continue fighting year in and year out without rest? I'm not so sure. I think he's tired, physically and mentally. It'll take a great push to go after the record at this point. Does he even want to? He also has physical issues to deal with as well.

I want him to play as long as he wants, and walk away when it's no longer relevant to him. Things work out the way they're supposed to in. We'll just have to wait and see.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 25, 2014, 08:32:24 am
thanks for posting the awesome stats general masterclass.


there are some stats that don't get revealed. for example the returns during the clutch moments in the game and the match.


rafa used to be pretty damn tough in the clutch.


even my dad made this remark the other day. and he does not even watch all that much tennis. he said rafa is not as calm as he used to be in the clutch.


well that much is pretty obvious; there are simply too many things bothering him on the court in key moments.


but that being said, where he is really getting beat is at his own game: he is getting hustled off the ground by the lesser players.

he used to hustle them all off the ground.

take the rome masters final for instance. nole basically took control of the baseline battle in the last 2 sets.


so the matter is that of insufficient practice and insufficient training on the fitness front. nadal is not that old. if he can get back to focusing on his game and his fitness, he can start beating them all again.


nole does not allow for too many distractions and works like a dog on his game and his fitness 7 days a week.

in fact a lot of players like milos, ferru, dimitrov, and the others have stepped on their fitness in order to take it to the next level.


I am seeing a drop in nadal's supreme fitness levels. he needs his supreme fitness and his physicality. that gives him a decisive edge out there in the trenches.

if he can play on the hard courts then he can step p on his fitness also.

also he should be training longer and harder on the red clay on year around basis. that will put him right back in business.


so he wont have to make stupid remarks like these:

1. "get used to it" on his losing and having trouble out there
2. "I don't know if I can win another major again"



that is fuel for the competition. and it also does not do much for your own confidence.


ferru and almagro hear these remarks and then go out there and push him around. nadal had not lose to them on the red clay in decades.


it is a confidence issue only because he is making it a confidence issue. of course it hurts your confidence if you getting bossed around in the baseline rallies by the players that have no business taking more than 2-3 games off you in a set on the red clay.


but what has led to that dropped confidence is just 2 simple factors:


1. he refuses to put in the work/hard yards on the practice courts like he used to
2. he refuses to train harder and longer on the fitness front to keep up with the competition


there is another factor: too many outside distractions and too many extracurricular activities which can wait. soon he will have over 60 years to do all that outside stuff.


how many players will ever find themselves in a position nadal is to challenge history? I will say just one and that is nadal.


the sport has become too demanding. nobody is ever going get near the slam record again.

nadal seems to be walking away from perhaps the greatest challenge ever offered an athlete. he needs to embrace it and then go after it.



Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: masterclass on May 25, 2014, 04:16:13 am
Thanks Lady TT.  I was amazed by the difference myself.  Typically these stats don't change much for top players, since they are so consistent. 

By the way, I looked at all return stats for Rafa for 2014,  and believe it or not, they are on par with his career stats, which are excellent by the way.  He's at or near the top in every category.

So it's definitely that second serve won percentage decline that sticks out as the problem from a statistical view.

Interesting that his hard court service percentages are actually slightly higher than his career percentages.
Not a big difference, but a percent or two.

This might tell someone that he has focused more on his hard court play in recent times, perhaps to the detriment of his clay court play... something general hercules and myself have been saying.  General hercules said he took his clay court play for granted.  Well, we will see if he can recover in time for the big one. 

Roland Garros begins today!  Good luck and good health to all players!

Let the war on the battlefield of the tennis gods begin!

Who will emerge as the last one standing?

Respectfully,
masterclass
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 25, 2014, 03:27:57 am
After thinking about how tough I've felt that it has been for Rafa to hold serve lately, I checked the stats.

Some might be surprised that Nadal has been a leader in some of the career serve stats.
Here are the key ones I picked out, and then compare them to this year, and separate out by surface.

Code: [Select]
T=Total Pct. R=Rank among all players, H=Hard Court Pct., G=Grass Pct., C=Clay Pct.

Rafael Nadal                       CAREER                                    2014
                                   T - R       H - R     C - R     G - R   | T - R       H - R    C - R     G - R

1st Serve Pct.                     69%-6       67%-10    71%-10     69%-8  |  71%-2      71%-2     71%-7    N/A

1st Serve won Pct.               72%-109      72%-151    70%-73   76%-106  | 71%-38     73%-35    69%-56    N/A

2nd Serve won Pct.                 57%-1        58%-1     56%-1     59%-2  |  55%-9      59%-2    51%-46    N/A

Service Games won                 86%-12       85%-17     85%-4    89%-17  | 84%-15     87%-13    81%-32    N/A

Notice that most of the 2014 stats barely differ from the career stats. 
But there is one significant difference.  Second serve won % stats on CLAY

The second serve won % differs by a whopping 5%, 56% to 51%, and his rank from #1 to #46.  5% is huge, when you consider that year by year the difference has been never more than 1%, and that the differences between players are very small, hence the rankings drop.

The service games won% reflects this stat.  It declines from 85% to 81% on clay in 2014, a 4% drop, and rank #4 to rank #32, also a large difference.

So, what does this tell us, and why, beyond that his second serve on clay isn't up to snuff?   I think that Rafa isn't getting as much action on his second serve as he usually does on the clay. 

Now one might usually say that the second serve won percentage usually reflects the ground game as much or more than the serve itself, but I think for Rafa on clay, this is not really true.  Notice his 1st serve percentages on clay are in line with his career stats, and it being clay and Rafa's serve,  I think the ground game comes into play just about as much on 1st serve as 2nd serve. Nadal doesn't get very many free serves.   So I think this discrepancy is mostly the serve.   

Now why is this happening?  One obvious answer might be the back injury.  Maybe he can't get enough spin on the ball.  For example, it requires more twisting effort to hit a kick serve, than a flat serve.  But why are his hard court stats still good? He played in Indian Wells and Miami after the back injury.  Maybe on hard courts, he hits it flatter?  Or maybe players are taking more risk against him on his second serve on clay, because the ball tends to sit up more?

So I'm going to be paying attention to this stat as Roland Garros progresses.  If he can stay near 55-56% 2nd serves won %, I think he'll be fine.  If he slips closer to 50%, then he will be in trouble, and I'm not sure it is something he can correct, if it is related to a physical problem.  Even if he says his back hasn't hurt him for awhile, I think he has been protecting the back, by not going all out.

For his sake, let's hope he is better in this respect at Roland Garros.  If not, it could be a tough road for him.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Wow, I can't believe it! You did a graph dealing with percentages and I actually got it. Well done.

It's amazing how that little percentage can do so much damage. He said he's feeling better, I hope that's true.

You just need some sports credentials and you'd be off and running. Maybe you should go into Sports Psychology to get your foot in the door. You have such valuable insights.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: masterclass on May 25, 2014, 12:11:49 am
After thinking about how tough I've felt that it has been for Rafa to hold serve lately, I checked the stats.

Some might be surprised that Nadal has been a leader in some of the career serve stats.
Here are the key ones I picked out, and then compare them to this year, and separate out by surface.

Code: [Select]
T=Total Pct. R=Rank among all players, H=Hard Court Pct., G=Grass Pct., C=Clay Pct.

Rafael Nadal                       CAREER                                    2014
                                   T - R       H - R     C - R     G - R   | T - R       H - R    C - R     G - R

1st Serve Pct.                     69%-6       67%-10    71%-10     69%-8  |  71%-2      71%-2     71%-7    N/A

1st Serve won Pct.               72%-109      72%-151    70%-73   76%-106  | 71%-38     73%-35    69%-56    N/A

2nd Serve won Pct.                 57%-1        58%-1     56%-1     59%-2  |  55%-9      59%-2    51%-46    N/A

Service Games won                 86%-12       85%-17     85%-4    89%-17  | 84%-15     87%-13    81%-32    N/A

Notice that most of the 2014 stats barely differ from the career stats. 
But there is one significant difference.  Second serve won % stats on CLAY

The second serve won % differs by a whopping 5%, 56% to 51%, and his rank from #1 to #46.  5% is huge, when you consider that year by year the difference has been never more than 1%, and that the differences between players are very small, hence the rankings drop.

The service games won% reflects this stat.  It declines from 85% to 81% on clay in 2014, a 4% drop, and rank #4 to rank #32, also a large difference.

So, what does this tell us, and why, beyond that his second serve on clay isn't up to snuff?   I think that Rafa isn't getting as much action on his second serve as he usually does on the clay. 

Now one might usually say that the second serve won percentage usually reflects the ground game as much or more than the serve itself, but I think for Rafa on clay, this is not really true.  Notice his 1st serve percentages on clay are in line with his career stats, and it being clay and Rafa's serve,  I think the ground game comes into play just about as much on 1st serve as 2nd serve. Nadal doesn't get very many free serves.   So I think this discrepancy is mostly the serve.   

Now why is this happening?  One obvious answer might be the back injury.  Maybe he can't get enough spin on the ball.  For example, it requires more twisting effort to hit a kick serve, than a flat serve.  But why are his hard court stats still good? He played in Indian Wells and Miami after the back injury.  Maybe on hard courts, he hits it flatter?  Or maybe players are taking more risk against him on his second serve on clay, because the ball tends to sit up more?

So I'm going to be paying attention to this stat as Roland Garros progresses.  If he can stay near 55-56% 2nd serves won %, I think he'll be fine.  If he slips closer to 50%, then he will be in trouble, and I'm not sure it is something he can correct, if it is related to a physical problem.  Even if he says his back hasn't hurt him for awhile, I think he has been protecting the back, by not going all out.

For his sake, let's hope he is better in this respect at Roland Garros.  If not, it could be a tough road for him.

Respectfully,
masterclass
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 20, 2014, 01:03:11 am
Good stuff, guys, and CD thanks for sharing the fan ranking with me.

I keep forgetting all the unnecessary farting he did, LOL.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 19, 2014, 09:13:25 am
que pasa sports fans.


be advised that general Hercules (me) and general masterclass (one of the foremost tennis experts and tennis analysts in the word) are in full agreement about what has happened this season:


rafa is simply short on practice and match play on clay.

he failed to prepare properly for his clay season on both fronts: his ground game and his fitness

I know it sounds harsh as I am probably his greatest fan in the world but he was reckless and careless with respect to his preparation going into the single most important clay season of his life.

and that cost him big time.


I don't know why he doesn't get it: its not about the rankings and the points at this point in his career. for instance he said he gained 600 points as a result of making the final in rome today.


it is about losing over and over to nole. he has now lost 8 of last 9 sets to nole.


if you look at this match from a slightly different perspective, nole basically spotted him a set and then proceeded to run over him in the next 2 sets 6-3, 6-3.

nole hit nearly 50 winners on him.


simon hit even more. he hit around 60 winners.


rafa is slow and sluggish in his movement. he is also not as supremely fit as in the past. he said he was tired and that his legs were weary.

general Tee was the first to notice this in Miami. he said rafa looked slow, sluggish, and not as fit as in the past.


basically all this senseless bloodshed could have been avoided if rafa had just left for Mallorca after losing early in indian wells. that was the blessing from the gods. his back was not 100% and his clay season was approaching. he proceeded to fart around for 15 days instead.

he went to Miami for 2 simple reasons: he went there to collect his appearance fee and to grab a few cheap points. I knew that he was making a massive mistake by going there.

there was no way in hell he was going to be able to take clay for granted forever. he is older now and he had not played well after the back injury.


it was time to go home after indian wells and jump on the soft clay to protect his back and to find his ground game in time for his clay season.

he is correct when he says he is out of confidence and stuff: what he is really trying to tell you that he is not confident enough of his ground game.

and the reason why he is not confident enough is because of 2 simple reasons: he wont put in the hard yards in practice on the red clay.

and he wont work diligently on his fitness.

that leaves him sort of unarmed in a way against nole: he is not really fully able to engage him in battle off the ground. he cant stay in the rallies like he has been able to for a decade. that is why ferru ran over him at monte carlo and then almagro got in the line too in Barcelona. he too took out rafa in the quarters.


nole won the long rallies today and he has been winning majority of the long rallies in his last 4 matches against rafa. and that is where the match was won and lost.

I did not see the match and I do not intend to. I am just not going to see rafa in this way.

I know he is a lot better than that.


he lost focus after the Australian open because of the back injury and he has yet to really fully find it again.


I can assure you that his 90 minute practice sessions are not getting the job done. he claims that he does not like to hit too many backhands.


and I will claim right now and right here that he cant beat a top gun like nole without a fully functioning backhand. you cant give up too much real estate. that is the reason why nole struck nearly 50 winners today.



now the sliver lining is that hopefully these losses will force him to focus more on his game and his fitness. he is still rafa. he will search deep to find some answers.

rafa does not lose much. he still has the highest winning percentage ever in the open era.


its just that he has lost a bit too much on clay this year. last time he lost 3 times on clay in such a short period was in 2004. he was just a kid then.


all he really needs is one good match in the final and he can take home his 9th RG crown. there is no other option left for him now.

he cant give up the king of clay title while still in his prime. I think he will do it. he will beat nole in straights or 4 sets in the final.

rafa's 8 RG finals wins in as many finals will give him the edge going into the final.  nole is tough but he is not as tough as rafa on the red clay.

rafa just happen to slip up and fall down. he will get up again.

he will take this RG crown but he is going to have to come back a lot fitter and a lot more lean and mean next year.

and of course he will have to prepare better for his clay season in 2015. there is no shame in playing smaller events in south America.

it beats the hell out of losing to players like ferru, almagro, and nole. and it sure as hell beats the hell out of winning damn near nothing and struggling against everybody.

OK. you win. You're Rafa's number 1 fan. I'll take number 2! I have nothing to add, you and masterclass warned of this as the season progressed.

But, let me run this by you. Do you think there was a problem with Xisca? She hadn't been at his matches for awhile. She just turned up this week, but I hadn't seen her. I wonder if that was a factor.


I know, I'm reaching, but I'm desperate, dang it!

we will just take turns princess TT. one week I will be his greatest fan and the following week you will take over. we will just alternate.



I don't think the problem is xisca. the problem is that he was either misled or misguided or both.

there is just immense demand on him around the globe. all his sponsors and his fans are almost weighing on him a bit.


he went to Oregon while farting around indian wells because NIKE asked him to be there. they sent  jet to go pick him up.

he played poker while right in the middle of the tournament because he has a huge contract with Poker Stars.

same thing in Monte Carlo. those Poker Stars people were again hounding him. and then he went sailing while there.

he also spent a day in Madrid. he took a train when he should have taken a jet. that was waste of 2 days. he was seen at the real Madrid soccer game.


it is just one thing after another. he did not bother to go jump on clay and stay there to figure out his ground game and his return. he also did not bother to put in sufficient work on fitness.


those are the only 2 things that are costing him: he is not the ground stroking machine he once was because he does not work as hard as he used to. he also does not work hard enough on his fitness.

now add to that the fact that others have significantly stepped up their efforts on the practice and the fitness fronts.


still we have a sliver lining: they still cant beat him in a best of 5 sets match on clay because he has the time to figure things out and do some problem solving in 5 sets matches.

he now just has to get rid of them all in straight sets until the final.


so its just one match---the one in the final----that he has to play well. he has to be focused and ready to deal with who ever is on the other side of the net. he has to let it all hang out as they say and fight tooth and nail for his crown.


I think he will do it.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: masterclass on May 19, 2014, 07:07:21 am
You said it all general hercules, nothing more to add...for the short term.   

For the long term, I hope Rafa doesn't go through with that new winter league.  He needs some down time.  He can't play all year long and win everything in sight.  He's only one man.  I can almost guarantee that if he tries to play all year long through the winter, he will be hurt by the clay season.  Does he really need the money so badly?  C'mon Uncle Toni, steer Rafa away from this crap. 

 If I were Rafa at this stage in his career, I would start thinking differently.  He's got 11 years or more worth of miles in those legs.  After the WTF, I would rest completely and re-energize until after Christmas, maybe until after New Year's.  Spend time with the family and friends.  Come back fresher mentally and physically.  Then I would start practicing on clay, not that indoor hard court he had built in Manacor.  I would skip the Australian Open, just like he did in 2013.  So he misses a major, big deal.  Except for one year, the tournament has been a negative for him.  He has pushed himself hard, and sometimes even injured himself there.   Also, another benefit is that long trip across the time zones is avoided, there and back.  That takes something out of you. 

Instead, he should spend the whole month of January training on clay 2-3 hours/day or more somewhere warm, working on his backhand as much as possible and getting pop on his shots. and improving depth on the return.  Then he should hit the ground running in South America and build his match toughness and clay level up.  I would stay on the clay as much as possible.  Play in Rio, don't play in Acapulco if it stays hard court.  Skip Indian Wells if he can (don't know if he has a contract with friend Larry Ellison) and Miami.  These slow hard court Masters just are a distraction in his clay preparation.  Miami has not been that good to him either.   Play in Houston in the US Clay championship or leave the Americas and start in Casablanca and start the European clay season.  I can practically guarantee that he will sweep the European clay season if he does this.

In fact, I hope that new league doesn't get off the ground.  Sounds like some glorified exhibition stunt to me.  It's all for the money.  Is Nadal really that needy or greedy?  He has hundreds of millions.   Players were complaining left and right that the season was too long only a couple of years ago.  They tried to shorten it a bit here and there.  They took away that extra week break after Paris and before the Year End Championships, and look what happened.  Paris started to be a joke for any player eligible for the WTF. 

My 2015 schedule for Nadal (starting with winter break through Roland Garros).

After Nov - WTF
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
December  - OFF (take a break, go somewhere warm, play golf, go fishing, play poker|) Don't be tempted by hc exhibitions.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
January - Practice/training month, only on clay 
Jan 19 - Australian Open SLAM - HARD  (SKIP Australian Open)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
February   - South American Tour
Feb 02 - Vina del Mar (Chile)  250 - CLAY
Feb 16 - Rio de Janeiro  500 - CLAY
Feb 23 - Buenos Aires  250 - CLAY
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
March - North American slow hard courts
Mar 09 - Indian Wells 1000 - HARD -  (OPTIONAL - would prefer he take a week off, then practice on CLAY instead of play)
Mar 23 - Miami 1000 - HARD (SKIP Miami - practice on CLAY)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
April - European Clay season starts
Apr 06 - Casablanca or Houston 250 - CLAY -  strictly a warm up tourney for Monte Carlo
Apr 13 - Monte Carlo 1000 - CLAY
Apr 20 - Barcelona 500 - CLAY
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
May - European Clay season continues
May 04 - Madrid 1000 - CLAY
May 11 - Rome 1000 - CLAY
May 25 - Roland Garros SLAM - CLAY
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With this schedule, I think he could go undefeated.

Respectfully,
masterclass
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 19, 2014, 03:31:08 am
que pasa sports fans.


be advised that general Hercules (me) and general masterclass (one of the foremost tennis experts and tennis analysts in the word) are in full agreement about what has happened this season:


rafa is simply short on practice and match play on clay.

he failed to prepare properly for his clay season on both fronts: his ground game and his fitness

I know it sounds harsh as I am probably his greatest fan in the world but he was reckless and careless with respect to his preparation going into the single most important clay season of his life.

and that cost him big time.


I don't know why he doesn't get it: its not about the rankings and the points at this point in his career. for instance he said he gained 600 points as a result of making the final in rome today.


it is about losing over and over to nole. he has now lost 8 of last 9 sets to nole.


if you look at this match from a slightly different perspective, nole basically spotted him a set and then proceeded to run over him in the next 2 sets 6-3, 6-3.

nole hit nearly 50 winners on him.


simon hit even more. he hit around 60 winners.


rafa is slow and sluggish in his movement. he is also not as supremely fit as in the past. he said he was tired and that his legs were weary.

general Tee was the first to notice this in Miami. he said rafa looked slow, sluggish, and not as fit as in the past.


basically all this senseless bloodshed could have been avoided if rafa had just left for Mallorca after losing early in indian wells. that was the blessing from the gods. his back was not 100% and his clay season was approaching. he proceeded to fart around for 15 days instead.

he went to Miami for 2 simple reasons: he went there to collect his appearance fee and to grab a few cheap points. I knew that he was making a massive mistake by going there.

there was no way in hell he was going to be able to take clay for granted forever. he is older now and he had not played well after the back injury.


it was time to go home after indian wells and jump on the soft clay to protect his back and to find his ground game in time for his clay season.

he is correct when he says he is out of confidence and stuff: what he is really trying to tell you that he is not confident enough of his ground game.

and the reason why he is not confident enough is because of 2 simple reasons: he wont put in the hard yards in practice on the red clay.

and he wont work diligently on his fitness.

that leaves him sort of unarmed in a way against nole: he is not really fully able to engage him in battle off the ground. he cant stay in the rallies like he has been able to for a decade. that is why ferru ran over him at monte carlo and then almagro got in the line too in Barcelona. he too took out rafa in the quarters.


nole won the long rallies today and he has been winning majority of the long rallies in his last 4 matches against rafa. and that is where the match was won and lost.

I did not see the match and I do not intend to. I am just not going to see rafa in this way.

I know he is a lot better than that.


he lost focus after the Australian open because of the back injury and he has yet to really fully find it again.


I can assure you that his 90 minute practice sessions are not getting the job done. he claims that he does not like to hit too many backhands.


and I will claim right now and right here that he cant beat a top gun like nole without a fully functioning backhand. you cant give up too much real estate. that is the reason why nole struck nearly 50 winners today.



now the sliver lining is that hopefully these losses will force him to focus more on his game and his fitness. he is still rafa. he will search deep to find some answers.

rafa does not lose much. he still has the highest winning percentage ever in the open era.


its just that he has lost a bit too much on clay this year. last time he lost 3 times on clay in such a short period was in 2004. he was just a kid then.


all he really needs is one good match in the final and he can take home his 9th RG crown. there is no other option left for him now.

he cant give up the king of clay title while still in his prime. I think he will do it. he will beat nole in straights or 4 sets in the final.

rafa's 8 RG finals wins in as many finals will give him the edge going into the final.  nole is tough but he is not as tough as rafa on the red clay.

rafa just happen to slip up and fall down. he will get up again.

he will take this RG crown but he is going to have to come back a lot fitter and a lot more lean and mean next year.

and of course he will have to prepare better for his clay season in 2015. there is no shame in playing smaller events in south America.

it beats the hell out of losing to players like ferru, almagro, and nole. and it sure as hell beats the hell out of winning damn near nothing and struggling against everybody.

OK. you win. You're Rafa's number 1 fan. I'll take number 2! I have nothing to add, you and masterclass warned of this as the season progressed.

But, let me run this by you. Do you think there was a problem with Xisca? She hadn't been at his matches for awhile. She just turned up this week, but I hadn't seen her. I wonder if that was a factor.


I know, I'm reaching, but I'm desperate, dang it!
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 19, 2014, 03:21:54 am
andy is really coming along with his fitness and his conditioning.


I hope he does well at RG. he is plenty good enough on the red clay.

Very well. That match is one of my favorites. I haven't seen tennis like that in a long time.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 19, 2014, 01:01:56 am
que pasa sports fans.


be advised that general Hercules (me) and general masterclass (one of the foremost tennis experts and tennis analysts in the word) are in full agreement about what has happened this season:


rafa is simply short on practice and match play on clay.

he failed to prepare properly for his clay season on both fronts: his ground game and his fitness

I know it sounds harsh as I am probably his greatest fan in the world but he was reckless and careless with respect to his preparation going into the single most important clay season of his life.

and that cost him big time.


I don't know why he doesn't get it: its not about the rankings and the points at this point in his career. for instance he said he gained 600 points as a result of making the final in rome today.


it is about losing over and over to nole. he has now lost 8 of last 9 sets to nole.


if you look at this match from a slightly different perspective, nole basically spotted him a set and then proceeded to run over him in the next 2 sets 6-3, 6-3.

nole hit nearly 50 winners on him.


simon hit even more. he hit around 60 winners.


rafa is slow and sluggish in his movement. he is also not as supremely fit as in the past. he said he was tired and that his legs were weary.

general Tee was the first to notice this in Miami. he said rafa looked slow, sluggish, and not as fit as in the past.


basically all this senseless bloodshed could have been avoided if rafa had just left for Mallorca after losing early in indian wells. that was the blessing from the gods. his back was not 100% and his clay season was approaching. he proceeded to fart around for 15 days instead.

he went to Miami for 2 simple reasons: he went there to collect his appearance fee and to grab a few cheap points. I knew that he was making a massive mistake by going there.

there was no way in hell he was going to be able to take clay for granted forever. he is older now and he had not played well after the back injury.


it was time to go home after indian wells and jump on the soft clay to protect his back and to find his ground game in time for his clay season.

he is correct when he says he is out of confidence and stuff: what he is really trying to tell you that he is not confident enough of his ground game.

and the reason why he is not confident enough is because of 2 simple reasons: he wont put in the hard yards in practice on the red clay.

and he wont work diligently on his fitness.

that leaves him sort of unarmed in a way against nole: he is not really fully able to engage him in battle off the ground. he cant stay in the rallies like he has been able to for a decade. that is why ferru ran over him at monte carlo and then almagro got in the line too in Barcelona. he too took out rafa in the quarters.


nole won the long rallies today and he has been winning majority of the long rallies in his last 4 matches against rafa. and that is where the match was won and lost.

I did not see the match and I do not intend to. I am just not going to see rafa in this way.

I know he is a lot better than that.


he lost focus after the Australian open because of the back injury and he has yet to really fully find it again.


I can assure you that his 90 minute practice sessions are not getting the job done. he claims that he does not like to hit too many backhands.


and I will claim right now and right here that he cant beat a top gun like nole without a fully functioning backhand. you cant give up too much real estate. that is the reason why nole struck nearly 50 winners today.



now the sliver lining is that hopefully these losses will force him to focus more on his game and his fitness. he is still rafa. he will search deep to find some answers.

rafa does not lose much. he still has the highest winning percentage ever in the open era.


its just that he has lost a bit too much on clay this year. last time he lost 3 times on clay in such a short period was in 2004. he was just a kid then.


all he really needs is one good match in the final and he can take home his 9th RG crown. there is no other option left for him now.

he cant give up the king of clay title while still in his prime. I think he will do it. he will beat nole in straights or 4 sets in the final.

rafa's 8 RG finals wins in as many finals will give him the edge going into the final.  nole is tough but he is not as tough as rafa on the red clay.

rafa just happen to slip up and fall down. he will get up again.

he will take this RG crown but he is going to have to come back a lot fitter and a lot more lean and mean next year.

and of course he will have to prepare better for his clay season in 2015. there is no shame in playing smaller events in south America.

it beats the hell out of losing to players like ferru, almagro, and nole. and it sure as hell beats the hell out of winning damn near nothing and struggling against everybody.



Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 18, 2014, 07:37:55 pm
andy is really coming along with his fitness and his conditioning.


I hope he does well at RG. he is plenty good enough on the red clay.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 18, 2014, 07:34:19 pm
once Rafa lifts the trophy at RG, a lot of these short term issues will go away. he can start anew after that.


even the loss today will be forgotten quickly once the RG crown is in the bag. that will wash away so much pain and suffering almost instantly.

it is almost a given that Rafa will meet Nole in the final at RG.

I just don't see anybody being able to deal with Rafa at a RG final. maybe in a year or two but not this year.


it is the last card Rafa has left to play. he wont let anybody get in his way there. I am sure of it.

I think Murray will be a factor too. His tennis was sublime on the clay. I believe he will make a statement next week, as well. He seems to have a new belief on clay. He was dialed in.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 18, 2014, 07:03:11 pm
once Rafa lifts the trophy at RG, a lot of these short term issues will go away. he can start anew after that.


even the loss today will be forgotten quickly once the RG crown is in the bag. that will wash away so much pain and suffering almost instantly.

it is almost a given that Rafa will meet Nole in the final at RG.

I just don't see anybody being able to deal with Rafa at a RG final. maybe in a year or two but not this year.


it is the last card Rafa has left to play. he wont let anybody get in his way there. I am sure of it.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 18, 2014, 06:49:48 pm
princess TT and general masterclass have been right all along and I am in that camp also:


it is not really a confidence crisis. rafa likes to say that these days and he means well. in a way he is even right.

how can you be confident when you are not winning and you are not as supremely fit as in the past.


in the past even a bad rafa was still plenty good for his opponents on the red clay because of his physicality and because of his fitness and speed.


lady TT has said this best: this is not rocket science. we have seen this coming for 2 years now. sure he put together a few good weeks last year at the north American hard court circuit but he has--on the average---become far more vulnerable in the best of 3 sets formats.

but I can assure you that a very big reason for his success on the hard courts last year at the north American circuit was because he was able to dominate clay.

he lost the monte carlo final to nole last year but he went one to win Barcelona, Madrid, rome and RG. and that is what gave him the confidence to do so well on the north amrican hard court circuit.


at any rate I do not see this as a confidence issue. he has dominated these players for a decade on the red clay. he is not hurting for belief.


what is costing him is that he does not work as hard as he used to. both on his ground game and his fitness.

he even boasts about the fact that he does not train more than 2 hours. sometimes just 90 minutes.  well that is not going to cut it and it is not cutting it.

players 5 years older than him are working twice as hard as he is. he needs to find his motivation.


he stands alone to be able to challenge history and yet cant seem to find the proper motivation.



I did not see the match today and I have zero intentions of watching it. I know his game too well and I know exactly what happened. I don't want to see nadal this way.

nadal lost today for only 2 reasons:

1. he has not been working hard enough on his ground game on the red clay like he needs to
2. he has let some of his fitness go. he said he was tired today. that is not acceptable at his level. he is a world #1 and in a unique position to challenge history. and still only 27. why the hell was he tired? nole played 2 back to back matches that were 3 hours long each just before the final. well almost 3 hours long each. the match against milos was slightly over 3 hours and the one against ferru was 2 hours and 38 minutes.

you don't even need legs to take your fitness to some amazing level if you want to and if you want it bad enough. why has nadal chosen to drop his fitness at a time when he can least afford to. and at a time when it is so damn clear that players like nole, ferru, and so many others are working so much harder on their fitness.


he just beat nole in montreal and at flushing meadows on nole's best surface a few months back. so nole is not that much better than nadal. nole is certainly not better than nadal on the red clay.

nadal can beat them all when he is properly motivated and properly focused on his practice and his fitness.


so that is what nadal has to do: he has to hit a million balls on the practice courts and he has to improve his fitness.


he has only 1 card left to play now: he has to get into the RG final and take down who ever he faces. he just needs 1 good match in the final as far as I am concerned.

for next year he has to try to come back a lot fitter and a lot healthier and then take it from there.


rafa is not winning montreal and cincy this year. I just don't see it happening at the current rate.

This has been a rough year for Rafa. The freak injury at Montreal? That had to be deflating. Here he was on the precipice of #14 and in the first set at least, he tweaks his back. That was devastating. So, I don't think it was a confidence issue, as much as it was an emotional letdown. Had he won that match, with the French coming, he would have felt very good about his chances going forward.

But a loss like that takes months to get over, just like it did with Novak when he lost those RG's in back to back years. He took a while to get back on track. But people tend to forget that, because they only focus on Federer and Nadal, no doubt due to their dominance for so long.

I think the slump wasn't due to confidence, but the energy zapping let down, which led to his poor play over the last few months. But. slowly but surely, he is getting it back considering last week and more specifically this week. So when you consider that Nadal played all the way through and hasn't taken off, I don't think, that's a lot of tennis in those legs, no matter how fit you are. So, for him to get to the final and challenge Nole, (who I never believed had a wrist injury) I think he was making an excuse for losing to Federer (don't write me) went off and rested for two weeks. For Nadal to take it to three sets was good. Because I find it hard to believe that Nole was playing at the level that Murray was, and it still went to thee sets.

I think Nadal got a lot out of this week.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 18, 2014, 06:19:28 pm
princess TT and general masterclass have been right all along and I am in that camp also:


it is not really a confidence crisis. rafa likes to say that these days and he means well. in a way he is even right.

how can you be confident when you are not winning and you are not as supremely fit as in the past.


in the past even a bad rafa was still plenty good for his opponents on the red clay because of his physicality and because of his fitness and speed.


lady TT has said this best: this is not rocket science. we have seen this coming for 2 years now. sure he put together a few good weeks last year at the north American hard court circuit but he has--on the average---become far more vulnerable in the best of 3 sets formats.

but I can assure you that a very big reason for his success on the hard courts last year at the north American circuit was because he was able to dominate clay.

he lost the monte carlo final to nole last year but he went one to win Barcelona, Madrid, rome and RG. and that is what gave him the confidence to do so well on the north amrican hard court circuit.


at any rate I do not see this as a confidence issue. he has dominated these players for a decade on the red clay. he is not hurting for belief.


what is costing him is that he does not work as hard as he used to. both on his ground game and his fitness.

he even boasts about the fact that he does not train more than 2 hours. sometimes just 90 minutes.  well that is not going to cut it and it is not cutting it.

players 5 years older than him are working twice as hard as he is. he needs to find his motivation.


he stands alone to be able to challenge history and yet cant seem to find the proper motivation.



I did not see the match today and I have zero intentions of watching it. I know his game too well and I know exactly what happened. I don't want to see nadal this way.

nadal lost today for only 2 reasons:

1. he has not been working hard enough on his ground game on the red clay like he needs to
2. he has let some of his fitness go. he said he was tired today. that is not acceptable at his level. he is a world #1 and in a unique position to challenge history. and still only 27. why the hell was he tired? nole played 2 back to back matches that were 3 hours long each just before the final. well almost 3 hours long each. the match against milos was slightly over 3 hours and the one against ferru was 2 hours and 38 minutes.

you don't even need legs to take your fitness to some amazing level if you want to and if you want it bad enough. why has nadal chosen to drop his fitness at a time when he can least afford to. and at a time when it is so damn clear that players like nole, ferru, and so many others are working so much harder on their fitness.


he just beat nole in montreal and at flushing meadows on nole's best surface a few months back. so nole is not that much better than nadal. nole is certainly not better than nadal on the red clay.

nadal can beat them all when he is properly motivated and properly focused on his practice and his fitness.


so that is what nadal has to do: he has to hit a million balls on the practice courts and he has to improve his fitness.


he has only 1 card left to play now: he has to get into the RG final and take down who ever he faces. he just needs 1 good match in the final as far as I am concerned.

for next year he has to try to come back a lot fitter and a lot healthier and then take it from there.


rafa is not winning montreal and cincy this year. I just don't see it happening at the current rate.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 18, 2014, 04:35:52 pm
Rafa:

“My legs didn’t answer after a tough week, not [good enough] to arrive and to produce the power and to hit the ball longer so I let him play in positive positions,” Nadal said. His opening three wins were three of the four longest matches in Rome this week, with his first match against Gilles Simon lasting 3 hours and 19 minutes. It was the longest three-set match of the season. ” A lot of times when he had the first ball good, for me it was very difficult to arrive to the ball and to change the dynamic of the point. In general I can do a little bit better. But in general I am very proud about this week.”


Fitness, or lack thereof, plus his propensity to make things harder on himself with his court positioning that made matches longer than they should have been against those opponents, did him in, and Novak Djokovic is a good enough player to take advantage.

General, you know it, Rafa knows it, and so do his opponents.  There is no place to hide on the tennis court.  It's not like team sports where you can slowly play yourself into shape without affecting the outcome greatly. You have to be prepared.  It's a cruel sport and vultures are everywhere just waiting for signs of weakness.

The good news for Rafa is that he has a week and a few more matches to be ready for another RG final, if he can survive the first week.

Respectfully,
masterclass

I thought the long week without rest would be a factor. I didn't see how he would recover. You have to take into account the entire week. Getting Simon, back at his best, for a first round was difficult. Simon is going to feed and run you all day. I think that took a toll on him with Youzny. Then he had to face Murray in a long anticipated match, oh brother, and if that wasn't enough he had to subdue a young gun. So...it makes sense to me. A person can only handle so much. In these BO3's there's not enough time to recover.

However, it still comes down to his lack of fitness and preparation. He wasn't physically or emotionally prepared for the battle. He had to be expending a lot of emotional energy, because coming into Rome he hadn't been playing well at all. I don't think you can turn it on and off that quickly.

So for me, it's all good. Plus, Rafa needed this loss. I'm sure next week he will be ready, if he makes the necessary adjustments and gets the much needed rest that he needs.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: masterclass on May 18, 2014, 01:57:13 pm
Rafa:

“My legs didn’t answer after a tough week, not [good enough] to arrive and to produce the power and to hit the ball longer so I let him play in positive positions,” Nadal said. His opening three wins were three of the four longest matches in Rome this week, with his first match against Gilles Simon lasting 3 hours and 19 minutes. It was the longest three-set match of the season. ” A lot of times when he had the first ball good, for me it was very difficult to arrive to the ball and to change the dynamic of the point. In general I can do a little bit better. But in general I am very proud about this week.”


Fitness, or lack thereof, plus his propensity to make things harder on himself with his court positioning that made matches longer than they should have been against those opponents, did him in, and Novak Djokovic is a good enough player to take advantage.

General, you know it, Rafa knows it, and so do his opponents.  There is no place to hide on the tennis court.  It's not like team sports where you can slowly play yourself into shape without affecting the outcome greatly. You have to be prepared.  It's a cruel sport and vultures are everywhere just waiting for signs of weakness.

The good news for Rafa is that he has a week and a few more matches to be ready for another RG final, if he can survive the first week.

Respectfully,
masterclass
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 18, 2014, 01:19:12 pm
I did not see the match and I will make sure I don't watch it.

I don't want to see him like this.


we all know he knowingly and intentionally neglected clay which is what has led to him losing his edge on clay.


but he should have been able to close the sale today. he had the first set in the bag.


I am not buying the confidence crisis crap.

he has owned these players on clay for a decade.


it is recklessness and greed that has cost him on clay this year.

he was reckless with respect to proper and careful preparation on clay.


he has been chasing all these extracurricular activities because of all the money that is involved.


bottom line: insufficient attention to his game and his fitness is what is causing him to lose on clay this year.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 18, 2014, 09:22:18 am
I just came across this article at the bleacher report site:


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2067265-struggling-rafael-nadal-cruises-into-final-at-rome-masters

Funny article. I agree with the author, losing a set is nothing, it's how you come back. That's like saying Serena struggled in her match with Ivanovic. I don't think so.

Was she at her best throughout? No. but she re-settled back down, it was lights out tennis.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 17, 2014, 08:22:15 pm
I just came across this article at the bleacher report site:


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2067265-struggling-rafael-nadal-cruises-into-final-at-rome-masters
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 16, 2014, 02:54:03 am
rafa needs to let his backhand get into the groove.

even the writers mention it here in this article. his backhand is plenty good. he just has to trust it and not run around it all the time.

I believe it is one of the best backhands in the world. he just has to give it a chance again. in the old days he basically never missed off his backhand wing because he trusted it and was not afraid to hit it.


http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/05/nadal-through-three-sets-again-time-over-youzhny/51458/#.U3Uw0WdOV9A

That's very true. He also needs to work on closing out sets and that dreadful break point conversion. Ugh!

He acts like he doesn't want to play until his back is against the wall. A strange strategy coming from him.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 15, 2014, 04:37:44 pm
rafa needs to let his backhand get into the groove.

even the writers mention it here in this article. his backhand is plenty good. he just has to trust it and not run around it all the time.

I believe it is one of the best backhands in the world. he just has to give it a chance again. in the old days he basically never missed off his backhand wing because he trusted it and was not afraid to hit it.


http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/05/nadal-through-three-sets-again-time-over-youzhny/51458/#.U3Uw0WdOV9A
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 14, 2014, 04:14:38 pm
rafa takes 3 hours and 18 minutes to get rid of simon the pest.


I see the same patterns:

1. not returning well enough
2. not fully trusting of his backhand
3. giving them too much court/real estate to work with


shaky at the net: he offers very little threat at the net. this is just another reason why he has to work so hard to win his matches.

he has to do it all from the backcourt which is a bit difficult if you don't fully trust your backahand. nadal's backahand is one of the best in the world.

he just cant seem to get himself to let it get in the groove.


simon moves well but basically he knew exactly where nadal was going majority of the time.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 14, 2014, 04:56:06 am
His inner motivation is not as strong as it used to be and that is understandable. He is definitely distracted with all the charity work, poker, golf and whatnot. So hopefully those losses to Ferrer and Almagro plus the scare against Nishikori give him a good dose of reality and he realizes that something serious needs to be done if he wants to be a contender for any big title from now on.

Great post!
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 14, 2014, 04:53:36 am
that is exactly what it is: fame and fortune.  and endless world hunger for his time and for his attention.


this has cost him his game.

he is refusing to focus on his place in history and how he can really make his mark. he has one hell of a window right now and he is not taking advantage.


the man is world #1 and has 8 RG crowns and the tennis world is saying that stan and nishikori are the favorite for RG. how the bloody hell can that kind of talk persist with nadal ruling the clay for a decade.

he should not allow that to happen. he is still not 28 and still in his prime.


it is pretty damn clear to me that he is not listening to anybody but himself. tony is just a cheerleader at this point in time.

That is an aspect of life though, it isn't it? No matter what you've done, every starts anew. Rafa cannot afford to rest on his laurels. And if anyone should know that, it's him.

He needs to isolate himself from the fame and fortune and get his butt back to work.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 14, 2014, 04:50:42 am
we need to verify this. I saw this on facebook as I was having a lightening quick look there.



Toni Nadal said," We don't deserve the victory, Nishikori deserves it. He played better than us the whole time... We had a lot of luck today. We didn't really come back, he was hurt."



it almost sounds like uncle tony is not really happy with the way clay warrior played.


I have been looking at the highlights. rafa did not return well and he also tried running around his backhand a bit too much.

also I thought rafa's shots lacked the venom and the mustard. he did not hard enough and forcefully enough.


rafa has one hell of a window. he really needs to be taking advantage of this:

nole has wrist issues
andy murray is not 100%
roger is getting old
del potro is out of the game


rafa is allowing himself to be pushed around by the players he has not lost to in 10 years.


still there is a way out of this: just do all you can to win rome and RG and many of the issues go away temporarily.

for the long run, rafa has got to start putting in the hard yards in practice. that is the only reason others are catching up. they are more hungry and are working harder.


he has to do the following:

1. work on the backhand
2. the return
3. the serve
4. fitness

I agree with you and Toni's assessment. Nadal seems a bit too complacent at this stage in his life. It is both baffling and discomfiting. Kei did deserve the win and it's a shame he didn't get it. I am happy that Rafa won a title, maybe it will kick his butt in gear, but I also prefer that Rafa actually wins the match, than have it handled it to him.

Where is the real Rafa? I'm getting concerned.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 14, 2014, 01:04:58 am
I saw this article at the atp site:


http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/05/20/Rome-Tuesday-Preview-Nadal.aspx
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 12, 2014, 05:38:58 pm
affirmative general Tee.


what I don't understand is why he cant realize that only man in the entire history of mankind will ever be in a position he is in:

he is in a position to go up against tennis history. the sport has become too demanding and is becoming more and more demanding with each passing month.

he is in a position to go after the slam record.


no man in tennis will ever get close to that record but nadal finds himself within striking distance.


so if that does not motivate you then I don't know what does.


all the players he has owned for decades are suddenly pushing him and bossing him around this year. how the hell did that happen.


sure they are all improving but nadal had the inside track on all of them. he let his game and his fitness slip.


he wont listen to anybody. clay is the wellspring from which he flows. he has to got start training more on clay.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Mr.Tee on May 12, 2014, 12:28:15 pm
His inner motivation is not as strong as it used to be and that is understandable. He is definitely distracted with all the charity work, poker, golf and whatnot. So hopefully those losses to Ferrer and Almagro plus the scare against Nishikori give him a good dose of reality and he realizes that something serious needs to be done if he wants to be a contender for any big title from now on.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 12, 2014, 12:22:43 pm
that is exactly what it is: fame and fortune.  and endless world hunger for his time and for his attention.


this has cost him his game.

he is refusing to focus on his place in history and how he can really make his mark. he has one hell of a window right now and he is not taking advantage.


the man is world #1 and has 8 RG crowns and the tennis world is saying that stan and nishikori are the favorite for RG. how the bloody hell can that kind of talk persist with nadal ruling the clay for a decade.

he should not allow that to happen. he is still not 28 and still in his prime.


it is pretty damn clear to me that he is not listening to anybody but himself. tony is just a cheerleader at this point in time.

Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Mr.Tee on May 12, 2014, 12:15:01 pm
we need to verify this. I saw this on facebook as I was having a lightening quick look there.



Toni Nadal said," We don't deserve the victory, Nishikori deserves it. He played better than us the whole time... We had a lot of luck today. We didn't really come back, he was hurt."



it almost sounds like uncle tony is not really happy with the way clay warrior played.


I have been looking at the highlights. rafa did not return well and he also tried running around his backhand a bit too much.

also I thought rafa's shots lacked the venom and the mustard. he did not hard enough and forcefully enough.


rafa has one hell of a window. he really needs to be taking advantage of this:

nole has wrist issues
andy murray is not 100%
roger is getting old
del potro is out of the game


rafa is allowing himself to be pushed around by the players he has not lost to in 10 years.


still there is a way out of this: just do all you can to win rome and RG and many of the issues go away temporarily.

for the long run, rafa has got to start putting in the hard yards in practice. that is the only reason others are catching up. they are more hungry and are working harder.


he has to do the following:

1. work on the backhand
2. the return
3. the serve
4. fitness

I agree with you 100%, the return of serve and backhand at the moment are not even Top 20. How can Rafa not see it? Focus on that, practice twice a day if necessary. He is getting lazy with all the fame and fortune.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 12, 2014, 12:01:44 am
look at what the headlines are reading:



http://sports.yahoo.com/news/tennis-nadal-wins-madrid-title-nishikori-retires-195947948--ten.html
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 11, 2014, 11:29:53 pm
we need to verify this. I saw this on facebook as I was having a lightening quick look there.



Toni Nadal said," We don't deserve the victory, Nishikori deserves it. He played better than us the whole time... We had a lot of luck today. We didn't really come back, he was hurt."



it almost sounds like uncle tony is not really happy with the way clay warrior played.


I have been looking at the highlights. rafa did not return well and he also tried running around his backhand a bit too much.

also I thought rafa's shots lacked the venom and the mustard. he did not hard enough and forcefully enough.


rafa has one hell of a window. he really needs to be taking advantage of this:

nole has wrist issues
andy murray is not 100%
roger is getting old
del potro is out of the game


rafa is allowing himself to be pushed around by the players he has not lost to in 10 years.


still there is a way out of this: just do all you can to win rome and RG and many of the issues go away temporarily.

for the long run, rafa has got to start putting in the hard yards in practice. that is the only reason others are catching up. they are more hungry and are working harder.


he has to do the following:

1. work on the backhand
2. the return
3. the serve
4. fitness
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 09, 2014, 10:44:15 am
here is the rafa interview from Madrid:


http://rafaelnadalfans.com/2014/05/07/video-interview-with-rafael-nadal-madrid-open-2014-2/

That was nice. Thanks for sharing!
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 07, 2014, 10:09:25 pm
here is the rafa interview from Madrid:


http://rafaelnadalfans.com/2014/05/07/video-interview-with-rafael-nadal-madrid-open-2014-2/
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 07, 2014, 06:33:42 pm
No tennis player in the top 50 wants to miss any matches and Rafa is no different. However, when he came back after the Australian Open so quickly I said to some friends, "what's he doing? Last year he rested and made sure he came back 10000% -- I cannot see how he has recuperated so quickly this time."

Of course, it's easy to say that after the fact.

I'm not a doctor, but I know backs are tricky. You can play for two hours not feeling anything, and  then suddenly "BANG" - pain - and you can't do what you did a minute ago.

But then you have it in your head, no matter how healthy your DRs say you are, that sometime in the match you may get hit with "BANG". And it affects your game. And your head. And that is Rafa's problem.

Rafa IS defending 1000 points, but since Djoko is out.... #3 is far, far away from him. Still, you want to do your best, and RG is looming out there....

And Wawrinka could face him in the QFs....


you may be right general.


only thing missing right now is practice and match play. as soon as he can remove those deficiencies he will be back in business. he has to practice more and also string together a few match wins.


he could use a little more work on the fitness front also.

Do you think he was working on putting his backhand in play? I did. At one point I started counting them, because I hadn't seen the backhand for so long.

After #12, I figured he had come to Camelot and decided to listen to all the great advice here :).
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 05, 2014, 12:54:22 pm
No tennis player in the top 50 wants to miss any matches and Rafa is no different. However, when he came back after the Australian Open so quickly I said to some friends, "what's he doing? Last year he rested and made sure he came back 10000% -- I cannot see how he has recuperated so quickly this time."

Of course, it's easy to say that after the fact.

I'm not a doctor, but I know backs are tricky. You can play for two hours not feeling anything, and  then suddenly "BANG" - pain - and you can't do what you did a minute ago.

But then you have it in your head, no matter how healthy your DRs say you are, that sometime in the match you may get hit with "BANG". And it affects your game. And your head. And that is Rafa's problem.

Rafa IS defending 1000 points, but since Djoko is out.... #3 is far, far away from him. Still, you want to do your best, and RG is looming out there....

And Wawrinka could face him in the QFs....


you may be right general.


only thing missing right now is practice and match play. as soon as he can remove those deficiencies he will be back in business. he has to practice more and also string together a few match wins.


he could use a little more work on the fitness front also.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 04, 2014, 05:55:06 pm
No tennis player in the top 50 wants to miss any matches and Rafa is no different. However, when he came back after the Australian Open so quickly I said to some friends, "what's he doing? Last year he rested and made sure he came back 10000% -- I cannot see how he has recuperated so quickly this time."

Of course, it's easy to say that after the fact.

I'm not a doctor, but I know backs are tricky. You can play for two hours not feeling anything, and  then suddenly "BANG" - pain - and you can't do what you did a minute ago.

But then you have it in your head, no matter how healthy your DRs say you are, that sometime in the match you may get hit with "BANG". And it affects your game. And your head. And that is Rafa's problem.

Rafa IS defending 1000 points, but since Djoko is out.... #3 is far, far away from him. Still, you want to do your best, and RG is looming out there....

And Wawrinka could face him in the QFs....

That's very true. The doctors can see that everything is fine on an X-ray, but that doesn't take into account niggling pains, stamina, or rest and recuperation.

I hope Rafa has fully recovered, though.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: CETSVids on May 04, 2014, 02:56:54 pm
No tennis player in the top 50 wants to miss any matches and Rafa is no different. However, when he came back after the Australian Open so quickly I said to some friends, "what's he doing? Last year he rested and made sure he came back 10000% -- I cannot see how he has recuperated so quickly this time."

Of course, it's easy to say that after the fact.

I'm not a doctor, but I know backs are tricky. You can play for two hours not feeling anything, and  then suddenly "BANG" - pain - and you can't do what you did a minute ago.

But then you have it in your head, no matter how healthy your DRs say you are, that sometime in the match you may get hit with "BANG". And it affects your game. And your head. And that is Rafa's problem.

Rafa IS defending 1000 points, but since Djoko is out.... #3 is far, far away from him. Still, you want to do your best, and RG is looming out there....

And Wawrinka could face him in the QFs....
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 02, 2014, 02:48:43 pm
Rafa should have taken a wild card in Estoril and put some extra matches under his belt.

OK, I'll go with it, since you've been right on many things.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on May 02, 2014, 09:27:18 am
Rafa should have taken a wild card in Estoril and put some extra matches under his belt.


Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on May 01, 2014, 01:40:38 am
Rafa will be fine.

We can't write an all-time great off after a few matches.

Things just seem to get magnified when it's Rafa.

I have faith in him.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 30, 2014, 10:56:15 pm
que pasa princess TT.

here is another article that I just came across:


http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/04/rafael-nadal-clay-barcelona-nicolas-almagro
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 30, 2014, 03:04:47 am
I just saw this article at tennis.com:



http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/04/when-rafa-blinked/51299/#.U1-42WdOWpo

This is a great article. I agree on so many fronts.

1. The point of diminishing returns, and
2. Champions fatigue

I'm just surprised that it took so long. Everyone gets tired, even if you're at the top of the game.

This is what I thought when Federer went through his slump. People were writing him off, but I didn't see any decrease in skills. Just mental fatigue.

These two have battled at the highest level for ten years. That's ridiculously consistent.

Bodo actually got it right, this time.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 29, 2014, 09:41:05 am
I just saw this article at tennis.com:



http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/04/when-rafa-blinked/51299/#.U1-42WdOWpo
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 27, 2014, 12:24:12 am
I read some of his remarks after this loss. he admits he is not sharp enough.

and at least twice he has so far admitted that he is not fit enough.

so this is exactly what I have been saying for months.


he is not in any kind of crisis. he is in a personal crisis: he knowingly dropped his fitness and his game.

translation: he is just not working hard enough. there is way too many outside interests and way too many extracurricular activities.

he also stayed on the hard courts too long as I have suggested before. he should have gone home after his early loss in indian wells and jumped on the red clay.

he knew that the most important part of his season was coming up.

so all this senseless blood shed could have been avoided. there was nobody at monte carlo that could have challenged him if he had showed up sharp enough.

and quite obviously he could have bagged another Barcelona title also.

now it gets a little harder but I agree with general backspin:

he is still the man who will go home with the RG crown. he just has to start focusing better and start putting more time on the practice courts.

Great post, #2 Rafa Fan on the planet.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 27, 2014, 12:20:42 am
I wasn't as disappointed this time as I was after MC. In Barcelona, desite the defeat, Nadal played better than he did in Monaco. His BH was good, was moving better, and was the better player for most part of the match. He had his chances to win in straights but played too passive in the big points. His forehand lacked the usual spin and power though.

He kind of choked this time. It's mental, not his game. It's good that he has about 10 days time before Madrid. When you're struggling with your confidence, a few days away from what you do can help. I know this from my own experience. Rafa needs to enjoy his battles on court again. That's when he's at his best. Right now, he's focusing too much on winning. He needs to focus more on playing his best. And the results will follow.

Despite the loss, I think he's improving and will be close to his best by Rome. I'm confident he can win the French again.

I thought so too. He had so many chances to win that match against Almagro, but made so many mistakes. I think he'll be fine.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 27, 2014, 12:15:42 am
I am probably rafa's greatest fan on this planet.

but I am also his greatest critic. I am still not going to give up on him.


I think he has made this way too hard for himself now. it is going to be very tough for him in Madrid.


that being said, he is still the favorite for RG as far as I am concerned. all he has to do is land in the final and he can take it from there.

getting to the final will require some luck and a decent draw for him this time around.

Um, I don't know about that  :).
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 27, 2014, 12:13:51 am
I know his back was ailing him in indian wells. you could see that he was not really doing much with his serve.

so if he really is a little spent mentally then why the hell did he not leave for home instantly after his early loss in indian wells. it would have been better for the back as well to go home, rest a couple of days, and then start preparing the single most important clay season of his career.


I could hardly bear to watch him play the way he was playing in indian wells. I watched with almost one eye closed.




he is just short on practice and a little short on fitness. short on practice on clay, that is.

he does not really have to win Madrid but 5 matches there would help his cause.

I think he has to win rome. lets see how it all plays out.

rafa does not really like the Madrid event all that much. but he is in a bind now. he has 1000 points to defend there.

The way the ATP is structured is tricky. You can't just skip tournaments without jeopardizing your points. So, even if you don't want to, sometimes you have to play when you don't want to.

Mentally, I don't think he feels like competing at the highest level right now. He's lacking the necessary motivation. In past years he saw himself as an underdog and went about his business. But now, his popularity is skyrocketing, the negative press has trickled down to nonexistent.

I'm sure these things motivated him in the past. They were always saying he was only a clay-courter and would never win on grass (check), he'd never win on a hard court (check), he'd burn out by 25 (check), he'd never hit double digits (check), they said all manner of things, and in each instance he proved them wrong.

Now, many are giving him a chance to catch the record, speculating if he'll break the record, and all of that stuff. That would irritate me, because I do what I do because of me, not because of others.

At this point he's exceeded his own goals. How do you stay motivated after that?
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 27, 2014, 12:03:47 am
I just found this article at the bleacher report:


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2035499-how-much-longer-will-rafael-nadal-extend-clay-court-dominance



check it out. it is an interesting read anyway.

It was a decent read, but this is sport, and aging and burnout is inevitable.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 26, 2014, 08:55:13 am
I read some of his remarks after this loss. he admits he is not sharp enough.

and at least twice he has so far admitted that he is not fit enough.

so this is exactly what I have been saying for months.


he is not in any kind of crisis. he is in a personal crisis: he knowingly dropped his fitness and his game.

translation: he is just not working hard enough. there is way too many outside interests and way too many extracurricular activities.

he also stayed on the hard courts too long as I have suggested before. he should have gone home after his early loss in indian wells and jumped on the red clay.

he knew that the most important part of his season was coming up.

so all this senseless blood shed could have been avoided. there was nobody at monte carlo that could have challenged him if he had showed up sharp enough.

and quite obviously he could have bagged another Barcelona title also.

now it gets a little harder but I agree with general backspin:

he is still the man who will go home with the RG crown. he just has to start focusing better and start putting more time on the practice courts.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Backspin on April 26, 2014, 01:44:30 am
I wasn't as disappointed this time as I was after MC. In Barcelona, desite the defeat, Nadal played better than he did in Monaco. His BH was good, was moving better, and was the better player for most part of the match. He had his chances to win in straights but played too passive in the big points. His forehand lacked the usual spin and power though.

He kind of choked this time. It's mental, not his game. It's good that he has about 10 days time before Madrid. When you're struggling with your confidence, a few days away from what you do can help. I know this from my own experience. Rafa needs to enjoy his battles on court again. That's when he's at his best. Right now, he's focusing too much on winning. He needs to focus more on playing his best. And the results will follow.

Despite the loss, I think he's improving and will be close to his best by Rome. I'm confident he can win the French again.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 25, 2014, 10:04:30 pm
here is another interesting read:


http://www.tennishound.com/?p=20114
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 25, 2014, 09:19:04 pm
I am probably rafa's greatest fan on this planet.

but I am also his greatest critic. I am still not going to give up on him.


I think he has made this way too hard for himself now. it is going to be very tough for him in Madrid.


that being said, he is still the favorite for RG as far as I am concerned. all he has to do is land in the final and he can take it from there.

getting to the final will require some luck and a decent draw for him this time around.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 25, 2014, 09:13:42 pm
I know his back was ailing him in indian wells. you could see that he was not really doing much with his serve.

so if he really is a little spent mentally then why the hell did he not leave for home instantly after his early loss in indian wells. it would have been better for the back as well to go home, rest a couple of days, and then start preparing the single most important clay season of his career.


I could hardly bear to watch him play the way he was playing in indian wells. I watched with almost one eye closed.




he is just short on practice and a little short on fitness. short on practice on clay, that is.

he does not really have to win Madrid but 5 matches there would help his cause.

I think he has to win rome. lets see how it all plays out.

rafa does not really like the Madrid event all that much. but he is in a bind now. he has 1000 points to defend there.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 25, 2014, 09:08:38 pm
I just found this article at the bleacher report:


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2035499-how-much-longer-will-rafael-nadal-extend-clay-court-dominance



check it out. it is an interesting read anyway.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 25, 2014, 08:50:48 pm
He might just be burnt out. It happens. Ten years is a long time to bear the weight of expectations. How must it feel to be constantly be expected to win every clay tournament you enter?

It may seem to be a bad period, but it might be a blessing in disguise. At this point in his career I think he deserves to exhale. That's the only way he'll get recharged. But for now, this is an ebb. Sooner or later he'll flow again.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 25, 2014, 08:18:01 pm
general Tee was right:


it is going to be tough for him to win anything significant at this rate.


now he is very short on match play on clay.  and of course he is very seriously and dangerously short on practice on clay. he found that out first hand today against almagro. he slaved away for nearly 3 hours against him and still could not put him away.

he had him on the ropes and still he could not finish him. he took the first set so he had him on the ropes instantly.


he had almagro down 1-3 in the decider. and almagro is not exactly a mental giant. he is mental midget of the highest order.

so what does nadal do: first he loses the tiebreaker to him. and then he proceeds to lose to him in the 3rd set after leading 3-1.



I saw something on twitter today. some people who were at the match said that he looked like he did not care all that much.



nadal lost his serve 3 times in a row to pretty much gift almagro the set. so nadal beat himself.

how does nadal lose his serve to almagro 3 times in a row on clay. you spin your serve in deep and then you simply outduel him from the baseline.


the fact of the matter is that nadal's ground game is in shambles. today he could not even outduel almagro from the baseline.

he needs the red clay more now than ever before. clay is the wellspring from which he flows.

surely he can remember that he has 43 titles on clay that include 8 RG crowns.

get on the red clay fool and stay on it. 2 hour lazy practice sessions are not cutting the mustard.


stop the endless promotional and extracurricular activities before they all start beating you on every single surface.


focus on your game, your fitness and your training. time is running out.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 24, 2014, 12:02:16 pm
affirmative.

it is crunch time for Rafa. he has to dig in and fight.

It's almost time to rock 'n roll.

Robredo and Cilic are 5-3 Tommy in the 3rd break TB.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 24, 2014, 08:40:55 am
affirmative.

it is crunch time for Rafa. he has to dig in and fight.


Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 24, 2014, 02:57:58 am
I just saw this. this is what uncle tony said about rafa's match today:


Toni Nadal in l'Equipe on Rafa's win over Ramos (@chriscottthomas): It's not working. No, nothing worked. He wasn't feeling it, he didn't play well, he moved badly, he made to many errors, he had no forehand, no backhand. Pffft. He's too tense to play. His loss in Monte-Carlo affected him. He gives it too much importance. Suddenly he has doubts. He needs to win tomorrow (today against Dodig) to try and get better.

He definitely needs to win against Dodig. Their H@H is 2-1 Rafa. That's a slim margin. Although I thought he played better than he has been playing.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 24, 2014, 12:29:38 am
I just saw this. this is what uncle tony said about rafa's match today:


Toni Nadal in l'Equipe on Rafa's win over Ramos (@chriscottthomas): It's not working. No, nothing worked. He wasn't feeling it, he didn't play well, he moved badly, he made to many errors, he had no forehand, no backhand. Pffft. He's too tense to play. His loss in Monte-Carlo affected him. He gives it too much importance. Suddenly he has doubts. He needs to win tomorrow (today against Dodig) to try and get better.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 22, 2014, 12:11:07 pm
In my humble opinion, Rafa's been playing tournaments to not lose his #1 ranking. He's afraid to lose it so soon again. He's counting how many points he got from Miami final, etc. He's got to stop thinking that way.

Someone needs to tell him to forget the #1 ranking and just focus on playing his best. He showed last year that when he really wants it, he can go through anyone and win the biggest titles. Win the titles and the #1 ranking will take care of itself.

He is capable of playing much better than he has so far in 2014. I like that he said he was unhappy with his MC result. Let that motivate him to practice more and play better.

That's a good point. Maybe you're right. Before he seemed unconcerned with the losses as long as he got points, but now he's not satisfied with his play, so maybe that'll kick him into gear.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Backspin on April 22, 2014, 03:58:56 am
In my humble opinion, Rafa's been playing tournaments to not lose his #1 ranking. He's afraid to lose it so soon again. He's counting how many points he got from Miami final, etc. He's got to stop thinking that way.

Someone needs to tell him to forget the #1 ranking and just focus on playing his best. He showed last year that when he really wants it, he can go through anyone and win the biggest titles. Win the titles and the #1 ranking will take care of itself.

He is capable of playing much better than he has so far in 2014. I like that he said he was unhappy with his MC result. Let that motivate him to practice more and play better.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 21, 2014, 04:41:10 pm
that is a great point.


that has to be a variable in this equation. the back has to be a factor.

bad back has caused quite a few issues for him. for example he was not able to even serve for 10 days after Rio.

It also might be why he doesn't seem to be so affected. Ordinarily, he seems to take losses seriously, but now he appears to be so carefree. I'm not getting it.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 21, 2014, 10:44:47 am
that is a great point.


that has to be a variable in this equation. the back has to be a factor.

bad back has caused quite a few issues for him. for example he was not able to even serve for 10 days after Rio.


Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 21, 2014, 10:29:07 am
agreed. Barcelona title is a must right now.

he has to focus. I thinks his fans are also to blame for some of this slump. they just cant get enough of his time and his attention.

he is forever trying to be helpful and forever trying to please him.

but the biggest reason for his slump right now is that he chose to screw around for 15 days after his early loss in indian wells.

those 15 days could have been spent at home on the red clay. clay is the wellspring from which he flows.

he needed to work on his ground game and his movement on the red clay and he was not willing to do that.

clay has saved him for 11 years. it was not going to save him forever. they are all gaining on him.

rafa has to work harder than ever before to keep his competitive advantage on the red clay. instead he is working as little as possible on the red clay this year.


bottom line: very little time left. he cant afford to let his key competitive advantage slip away. he has to win Barcelona and rome.

it would not hurt to win Madrid also.

I know, but sometimes things have to give. We don't know if he wasn't practicing enough because of the back. Like you, I think it's way worse than he's letting on.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 21, 2014, 09:49:35 am
agreed. Barcelona title is a must right now.

he has to focus. I thinks his fans are also to blame for some of this slump. they just cant get enough of his time and his attention.

he is forever trying to be helpful and forever trying to please him.

but the biggest reason for his slump right now is that he chose to screw around for 15 days after his early loss in indian wells.

those 15 days could have been spent at home on the red clay. clay is the wellspring from which he flows.

he needed to work on his ground game and his movement on the red clay and he was not willing to do that.

clay has saved him for 11 years. it was not going to save him forever. they are all gaining on him.

rafa has to work harder than ever before to keep his competitive advantage on the red clay. instead he is working as little as possible on the red clay this year.


bottom line: very little time left. he cant afford to let his key competitive advantage slip away. he has to win Barcelona and rome.

it would not hurt to win Madrid also.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 21, 2014, 03:04:56 am
now he has to take it one tournament at a time. he pretty much has to win Barcelona.

and then do all he can to go after the rome masters. that should start to get him on the right track.


what is missing is his usual supreme fitness. he is not doing enough on the fitness front. and he is certainly not doing enough on the practice courts.

Hopefully this loss was a wake up call. He can't afford to stay on this track.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 19, 2014, 08:54:17 am
now he has to take it one tournament at a time. he pretty much has to win Barcelona.

and then do all he can to go after the rome masters. that should start to get him on the right track.


what is missing is his usual supreme fitness. he is not doing enough on the fitness front. and he is certainly not doing enough on the practice courts.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: thetruth on April 19, 2014, 12:45:31 am
It's hard to say. He may just be burnt out. I think he's played uninspired all year. He's had times when he's come out in the first couple of matches and seemed to be on track and by the third match he's back to seeming less interested than in the past.

It's rare that you see him even fist pump. I really don't know, but I do think he'll get it together. He has too much pride not to.
Title: Re: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 18, 2014, 09:44:30 pm
this is his earliest exit from monte carlo in 11 years.


so even a very bad Rafa has always been able to get through and run through the fields at monte carlo over the years.


he has had his share of slumps over the years but he has always been able to turn things around in monte carlo.
Title: What Really Ails Rafa
Post by: Clay Death on April 18, 2014, 09:37:57 pm
What is holding Rafa back?

you be the judge. you have the floor.

I am just worried at this point.