CAMELOT FANTASIES

Quote from: Mr.Tee on May 11, 2015, 08:45:38 am

Quote from: masterclass on May 11, 2015, 02:57:25 am

Hi all! 

Well, I was waiting for the end of Madrid to say anything due to the up and down nature of Rafa's comeback this year.

And it manifested itself again.

But let's look on the bright side for a moment, shall we?

1. Rafa made it to the semis in Monte Carlo and lost to Djokovic - which was like playing a final.  He got 4 matches in.  He disappointed in Barcelona only getting 2 matches in, but in Madrid, he made it to the final and got 5 matches in. That's 11 matches.  If he can get 4 or 5 matches in Rome, that gives him 15/16.  If he can make it to the QF at RG, he'll have 5 more in for 20/21.  That's enough to win RG, if he plays well of course.

2. He looks to be pretty healthy.  He is gradually getting more fit.

3. From his effort, it looks like he is gaining confidence though still not sure of himself against the top guns, because he hasn't beaten them recently.

Unfortunately, there is a down side, as you all have pointed out.

1. Inconsistent play - looking great on some shots, but horrendous on others, and too many of those.

2. He has gotten outplayed by lesser players at the business end of the match indicating insufficient fitness still.

3. His confidence is not all there, even on clay with 46 titles and 9 RG.

4. Technically, he is still suffering.  Don't let his wins over Berdych or Dimitrov fool you.  He took advantage of Berdych, who doesn't move well enough and therefore defend well enough to compete with the best on clay.  As soon as he reached both a competent shot maker and defender in Andy Murray, Rafa's weaknesses were all exposed for all to see.  He couldn't match the Murray backhand to his forehand exchanges, which was a huge factor.  Why?  Rafa's forehand was just inconsistent.  Balls were flying on him and sailing out. But I believe the reason is that Rafa hit too many off balance, due to not having the speed/fitness to reach them.  Rafa's backhand and return were extremely short, those that went over the net giving Murray time and opportunity to step in to the court and hit wider angles deep to Rafa's forehand or backhand.  Rafa was often on the back foot meters behind the baseline.   

The bright point was Rafa's play at the net.  He won virtually everything there.  The trouble was that he didn't get more than 10 or so opportunities there. 

His forehand was inconsistent at best.  He hit many long or wide.  His backhand was woeful at times, I think at least a couple hit the bottom of the net or didn't make it there.  After getting broken in his first service game of the first set, Rafa hung in the set well on serve, but couldn't get through on Murray's serve.  The second set started the same or worse I should  say.  He couldn't hold his serve the opening two service games, and couldn't make a dent in Murray's. 

Sure, a lot of this was Murray's good, aggressive play, especially on his backhand wing.  The trouble was that Rafa couldn't take his opportunities, and they were there.  Murray's serve wasn't particularly good, hovering around 50% first serves in much of the match, ending up at 59%.  And Rafa let Murray get away with winning 80+ percent of his second serves by standing too deep, instead of standing inside the baseline and whipping Murray's 84 mph serves back at him, like most of the rest of the tour has been doing. When Murray embarrassingly missed a drive volley in the second set at 2-0 his ad on Rafa's serve, it seemed a great opportunity for Rafa to turn the match around.  Instead, he meekly lost his service game.  Rafa just didn't play well enough to string a few points in a row and get enough rhythm. 

Rafa said he just wants to delete this match from his mind and focus on his good matches.  Well, good luck with that.  You can't hide from your poor performances.  You have to look at them in cold light and make the improvements necessary, or else you will run into those problems again, the next time you meet a top player.

We've said it before, Rafa needs to work on his fitness, his return of serve, and depth of shots.  If he can't solve those, he won't be winning against top players, and he can lose to anyone who moves well on clay (like a Fognini).

The good news is there is still a little time, and he can make improvements if he works hard. But that window is closing fast.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Great post, as usual, masterclass!

Rafa losing those forehand-to-backhand rallies was really painful to watch, it used to be only Djokovic (and, to some extend Nalbandian) who could do that to him. But Rafa is indeed a step slower, what really boggles my mind is that he plays passive, short balls and he relies too much on defending. Well, he is not 26 anymore, those days are long gone!
I have a question for you - do you thing that at this point of his career Rafa would benefit from hiring a coach? I am not talking about replacing Toni but rather hiring somebody on his team with perhaps a fresh perspective on his game.

it is not a coaching issue. it is a much deeper issue:



he lost his focus, his hunger, and his relentless will to win a while back.



at the same time he is bigger than ever in many ways. he made over $41 million last year and is on track to make over $50 million this year.



he has too many outside interests and also the whole damn world wants his time and his attention.



there is the borg syndrome going on also: Rafa won too much too early in his career. and he beat them all. he has a winning record against 100% of the top 30 players. he is a bit burned out from having to fight so hard to stay at the top for nearly a decade. he dominated the red clay for a whole decade. winning on clay is not easy. it requires massive mental and physical capital.

it is a drive and hunger issue that led him to drop his fitness and physicality. he also started doing much shorter practice sessions. they were almost like token practice sessions.



he wont win if he doesn't want it bad enough.


I am just worried about injuries now at this point. he is extremely vulnerable to injury in his current state.


he was totally and utterly spent against Andy in the final. he had absolutely nothing left to give.


taking out dimitrov and berdych took too much out of him.


take a look at this article:

http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2015-05-11/19297.php




they leave out the deeper issues like lack of sufficient drive and hunger. which translate clearly to significantly diminished fitness and his usual physicality. it is Rafa's life and his career so he will do what he wants with it.


all we can do is speculate and have our discussions about what has gone wrong.



he has no fitness and physicality given his demanding style of play compared to his own standards of the old days.

he looks frail and weak. there is no depth and there is much diminished pace on his shots.


ferru and fognini are 1/2 the men Rafa is and yet they are hitting the ball significantly harder. in fact they are hitting harder than they ever have before.


I am just worried to death because his diminished state of fitness and physicality can lead to injury which will surely end his career next time.


he is going to have to work on his fitness after Wimbledon. and he will also need to get back on clay to find his ground game again.


not sure what he can do at RG. we are going to need a lot of luck.

Djokovic does not take a single day off from his work on the practice courts and  from his work on the fitness front. he is outworking them all which is what he said he had to do.

longer the match goes now the greater the probability that he will destroy you. you may not even win a game in the deciding frames against him.

that is how strong he is now.


Rafa was the only one who could have stopped him.

Rafa will rise again. he will get the urge to dominate again. he is not that old.

he will do some deep soul searching this season and try to figure out what he really wants to do and achieve going forward.

he is a bright fellow. he knows what has to be done to get near the top again.

I think he is going to want to return a lot stronger next year.

Rafa may look at Serena and Federer and find all the motivation he needs.

i am just speculating here. lets hope i am right.

Andy could win the Rome masters if he keeps improving.


That would be a monumental achievement.