CAMELOT FANTASIES

Nadal is like the hunted beast at Rafael Garros.  Everybody knows he is the favorite every year he plays.
He is one of the top 3 clay court players in history, maybe the best.
Best of 5 sets on clay is always on his racquet. The only thing that can stop him is himself if he overplays and gets himself hurt or exhausted.
He only needs about 15 matches on clay before RG to be ready.   I would not play Madrid if I were in his shoes.

Play Monte-Carlo the week of April 13-20.
Play Barcelona the following week - April 21-27. 
Skip Madrid the week of May 4-11. 
Play Rome the following week, May 12-18.
Rest a week and get to Roland Garros May 25th, fresh and ready to win his 9th French Open and 14th slam overall to tie him with the great Pete Sampras.

Before the clay season, he should limit his hard court play.  Play Indian Wells, singles only.  Withdraw from Miami and get back to Majorca and start practicing on the clay. 

If he does all of the above, he can make it to each of the clay finals, and probably win them all.   Then he might have enough gas to do better at Wimbledon.  If he overplays before RG, either on hard or clay,  I think he is risks getting beaten at RG.

Respectfully,
masterclass
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I have to get Rafa's personal email and send this information to him.

It sounds perfectly well thought and logical.

Lady TT, if you hear about someone being bet as even money, that is 1-1 odds.  It usually means they have a great chance of winning compared to the rest of the field.
From a monetary point of view it means for every dollar (or whatever currency), you put in, if your pick wins, you get your dollar back plus another dollar.   Bet a dollar get back a total of 2 dollars.   2 to 1 or 2/1,  means put in a dollar and you get a total of 3 dollars back, your original dollar plus 2 dollars.

So in Rafa's case at 4/5 it means bet 5 dollars and get 9 dollars back,  your 5 plus 4.

Djokovic - 19/10 - bet 10 and get 19 back plus your original 10 for a total of 29.

Stan - 25/1 -  For every dollar you bet, you get back 25 plus your dollar.  So a $40 bet on Stan would return you $1000 plus your original $40.

Now how do they decide what the odds are?  Usually the bookies or some authority determine the starting odds.  But then as money is bet, the odds change, reflecting the money bet per contestant, as compared to the total pool.

In Thoroughbred Horse racing, the sport of kings, I recall the great Secretariat going off at 1/10 odds, an overwhelming favorite to win the Triple Crown at the Belmont Stakes, the third and final leg of the Thoroughbred USA Triple Crown races.  He paid $2.20 for a 2 dollar bet to win in his thrilling record breaking romp.  Or if you had bet $10 you would get $11 dollars back, 1 dollar plus your original 10.

Here is that race for your viewing pleasure.  Set view settings for HD.

I'll never forget the announcer exclaiming: 
"He's moving like a tremendous machine..." 


Respectfully,
masterclass

Quote from: Clay Death on February 12, 2014, 05:35:16 pm

Quote from: masterclass on February 12, 2014, 08:42:52 am

Nadal is like the hunted beast at Rafael Garros.  Everybody knows he is the favorite every year he plays.
He is one of the top 3 clay court players in history, maybe the best.
Best of 5 sets on clay is always on his racquet. The only thing that can stop him is himself if he overplays and gets himself hurt or exhausted.
He only needs about 15 matches on clay before RG to be ready.   I would not play Madrid if I were in his shoes.

Play Monte-Carlo the week of April 13-20.
Play Barcelona the following week - April 21-27. 
Skip Madrid the week of May 4-11. 
Play Rome the following week, May 12-18.
Rest a week and get to Roland Garros May 25th, fresh and ready to win his 9th French Open and 14th slam overall to tie him with the great Pete Sampras.

Before the clay season, he should limit his hard court play.  Play Indian Wells, singles only.  Withdraw from Miami and get back to Majorca and start practicing on the clay. 

If he does all of the above, he can make it to each of the clay finals, and probably win them all.   Then he might have enough gas to do better at Wimbledon.  If he overplays before RG, either on hard or clay,  I think he is risks getting beaten at RG.

Respectfully,
masterclass

great post general.

I could not agree more.



he is likely to get a few more match than just 15 going into that final at RG:


1. he will get 6 at RG (going into the final)
2. he may get 4 at rio open. I think he loses to ferru there while he gradually tries to increase intensity
3. he gets 5 at monte carlo: (he is going to take back monte carlo this year)
4. he will get 5 in Barcelona: he wins barcelona
5. he will get 5 in rome: he wins rome masters


i am not sure if he is going to skip Madrid. lets assume he does. that gives him a total of 25 matches on clay going into the final.


historically----before nadal's reign of terror at rg---winners there have needed to play 20 matches on clay on the average going into paris.


I changed the equation for nadal: we might as well count the 6 that he is going to play going into the final.



he is going to be very hard to stop in the final.

Well, now that time has passed, let's see how many clay matches Rafa will actually have..

General, I'm not going to count Rio, since he played 2 tournaments on hard court after that and didn't keep practicing on clay.  And his results on clay thereafter show that lack of preparation.

So that leaves us with:

Monte Carlo:  3
Barcelona: 3
Madrid: 5 (almost had to play here after MC and Barca fiascos)
Rome: 2 so far
RG:

So he has only 13 so far.  He must make it to the final in Rome, which will give him 2 or 3 wins more for 15 or 16 maximum.
That's a bit light historically going into Rafa Garros, but then as you say, he'll have 6 matches prior to the final, which will give him 21 or 22 matches going into the final at RG.  That should be enough as long as he makes it to the final.  He knows his way around RG.

Respectfully,
masterclass