CAMELOT FANTASIES

roger looks more lean general masterclass.

that is lean muscle tissue there general.

I think he is putting in the hard yards on the road and in the gym.

you know he snatched this title in 2012.


that field packs some major punch.

Good question Lady TT.  I think he mustn't panic or get down on himself for sure.

Nole has to regroup and refocus just a bit. But it's no shame to lose to a Federer playing vintage stuff. Boris Becker has to get Nole to realize that when the Federer genius comes out, that he shouldn't panic, ride the tide, and then look for opportunities to turn the match around. Easier said then done, but Nole has to have a bit more calm. He retrieves and returns as well as anyone. It will help him when he gets back on slower courts. These medium-fast courts in Dubai are probably just a bit too fast for him against someone with the ability and aggression of Federer when he is executing well. There is only so much one can defend, even for the best defenders in the world.   

And it's not only Federer.  Nole has to maintain his calm against whomever his beating him, whether it be Rafa, Andy, or ?
He also has to try to avoid these irritating lulls in a match, but then, that is tough for any player, especially in a five set match. One just to find ways to limit those lulls as much as possible. I don't know if Nole hired Becker to help him on his net and overhead play, but it might be a mistake to try and change his previously winning formula now.  I think Becker needs to emphasize that Nole should try to stay calm and steady throughout the match and maintain his level as much as possible.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Lady TT, I think you are spot on with this analysis, especially regarding Nole's difficulty with variety executed at a high level.

I've always said that Novak is like a metronome.  If one keeps banging balls to him with constant pace, back and forth, one is going to lose the battle.  He loves it, and usually the more consistent pace the better for him as he is an elite aggressive baseliner combined with the retrieving skills of a counter puncher.  He'll keep the pressure on, returning almost everything and find a way to eventually get a shorter or higher ball and put it away from either wing. 

In general, slower conditions on hard courts help him, as his great lateral movement allows him to get almost anything, but he is still very competent probably up to the low range of a medium-fast conditions.  And the only reason he is not quite as good in faster conditions is that he can't defend as well, like anyone else.  But since defense is so strong a part of his games, that hurts him.  Even though he has fantastic lateral movement, he doesn't have the best footwork and has trouble with it on occasion.  Better footwork is needed in faster conditions and on the natural surfaces, especially when it is slippery grass or inconsistent clay.

As you say, the way to beat him is with variety and give him a lack of rhythm.  Variety of pace and shots.  One is probably better off keeping rally balls toward the center of the court but deep.  Hitting rally type balls near the tram lines is dangerous as it creates an angle for him to exploit either sharply cross court or a change of direction down the line to an open court.  Bringing him in is also a good tactic as he is not in his comfort zone near the net, and though he can usually get to most drop shot balls, his footwork is such that he is often out of balance, and if one can return his initial shot, one usually has an excellent chance of ending the point. His movement is not as good up and down the court as it is laterally, because usually better footwork is required to make that transition.  So a combination of a good drop shot and a good lob will usually work well.  And of course, since he is a two hander, he is not as comfortable hitting a good low slice on the backhand wing.  He usually can't do much with it, he will usually hit up on it, and give one an opportunity to set up a winner in short order.

As you mention, one can also beat him by hitting very hard, but that is always going to be a risky strategy for any player to continuously implement.  I think if one has the ability to hit hard winners even in slower conditions, one has to still choose their moments of aggression, be patient and wait for their moment to strike it hard.  Players like Berdych and Del Potro do have this ability.

Still, to employ these strategies against Novak requires the skill to do so and consistent execution.  If one starts hitting slower pace for variety to the wrong spot at the wrong time it is going to get punished.  Too high a drop shot is going to get punished.  A slice that is not hit low enough or to the wrong spot is going to get punished.

Roger knows how to beat Novak, but sometimes he fails to execute well, sometimes he gets too anxious to win the point too soon, especially when conditions don't favor it, and sometimes he fails to use the variety he has.  I think all too often he gets stubborn, and he believes that he can beat Novak at his own game, which 9 times out of 10 is not going to happen.  Also, for Roger, he has to be serving well, and vary his placement to put Djokovic off balance and to make Novak less confident and himself more confident, and force pressure on Novak's own service game.  Too low a first serve percentage won't cut it.  Too many weak second serves won't cut it.  His second serves have to have variety in placement, pace, and spin. 

Federer's returns also have to vary.  Too many weak bunted blocks back will not work.  Occasionally he must come over the ball on the return and get it back deeper and quicker to keep Novak honest.  And since 2011, one is not going to beat him on hard courts by just hitting balls back and forth trying to outlast him.  Ask Rafa.  The 2012 Australian Open almost destroyed both players.  Neither one was quite the same that year after that marathon battle, though Novak did finally get better at the end of the year.

All this said, it is easier said than done.  Most players simply can't do what needs to be done.  That's why Nole has been #1 or #2 in the world since 2011.  But it's possible, especially now that Nole seems to have a tendency to suffer lulls during the match at the business end of the tournament.  One has to be ready to exploit that when it is offered.

Respectfully,
masterclass