CAMELOT FANTASIES

Quote from: thetruth on March 27, 2015, 02:37:38 am

Quote from: Clay Death on March 26, 2015, 08:57:34 am

I don't want Rafa here so earliest possible loss the better.


he should have never gone to Miami with RG on the line this year.

He definitely should be on the clay. RG is looming. It'll be here before we know it, and Rafa still isn't up to speed. Hopefully, everything will work out. For now, we have to wait and see.

Rafa just wont let go of the old habits. he has won so much on clay for a decade that he takes it for granted even as it is slowly slipping away from him.


monre carlo, Barcelona, and rome were definitive locks for him in the past. and of course RG.




now other players are simply working harder than ever and are more hungry than ever. they are more focused than they have ever been.



Rafa just cant afford his RG crown. he has to try to hold on to it for at least another year.

Quote from: thetruth on March 27, 2015, 02:37:38 am

Quote from: Clay Death on March 26, 2015, 08:57:34 am

I don't want Rafa here so earliest possible loss the better.


he should have never gone to Miami with RG on the line this year.

He definitely should be on the clay. RG is looming. It'll be here before we know it, and Rafa still isn't up to speed. Hopefully, everything will work out. For now, we have to wait and see.

Rafa just wont let go of the old habits. he has won so much on clay for a decade that he takes it for granted even as it is slowly slipping away from him.


monre carlo, Barcelona, and rome were definitive locks for him in the past. and of course RG.




now other players are simply working harder than ever and are more hungry than ever. they are more focused than they have ever been.



Rafa just cant afford his RG crown. he has to try to hold on to it for at least another year.

I will say this again:

clay is the wellspring from which he flows.


he had exactly zero business being in Miami. his game is in shambles and his fitness is in a dramatic decline.

he just wasted 10 days that he could have spent on the red clay.


he cant beat anybody in this condition. why is he not getting this?

Lady TT, General Hercules, I agree with most of what you both say.  You both know Rafa and his game very well.

So I tried to step back from these recent events and look at it from the point of view since last year's Roland Garros.

If I recall correctly, Rafa in 2014 had overcome one of his poorest clay campaigns in 10 years to still win his amazing 9th title at Roland Garros.

So the good news for him is that even though he only played 16 matches on clay prior to Roland Garros, by the time he faced Djokovic, he was playing his 23rd match on clay.

Usually he has at least 20 matches on clay prior to Roland Garros, but he didn't last year.  On the other hand, he went deep on Miami's slow court last year prior to the clay season, which may have hurt him a bit for the clay season.

So let's use last year as a barometer of sorts.   Unfortunately, I don't think he is coming into this clay season as fit as previously, though he may be healthier after those maladies post Wimbledon last year and lack of playing time for the last 9 months or so.  I think he needs to do better this clay season than last year from both fitness and confidence perspective.   I think if he can get 18 matches on clay and at least 2 titles (preferably either MC or Rome Masters), he should be ok for RG. Less than those results, and it's not so good.   

The worst that can happen is he loses at RG.  Well, he still has 9 titles there.  Nobody can take those from him. 

It's more important that he stays healthy to be fit and play more if that is what he wants to do.  If he doesn't then, he has already had a great career that will go down as one of the greatest in tennis history.  Could it have been even greater? Maybe, but it could have been worse also.  I believe as fans of great tennis and Nadal, one has to look at it from that bigger perspective.

We also have to look at the other players.  Rafa doesn't play in a vacuum.  Some of the younger players are beginning to step up a bit, like Raonic and Nishikori and others.  But maybe more importantly, Djokovic is fit as any player on the planet and playing as well as ever, and Federer is not doing badly, though surprising that at his age, he is still one of the few that seems capable of stopping Djokovic.  Murray looks like he is improved from last year, but still with not quite enough to challenge the top 2.  Why are the top guys so far above the rest?  They have supreme fitness, good scheduling, and of course the talent, match fitness, and confidence to play at that level. 

IF Rafa wants to get back to their level, he simply must have more match play that he lost after Wimbledon in 2014 through the end of the year.  But 2015 started relatively equally.  He needed to work hard to get his level back.  The top two are way ahead of him in that manner.  Federer and Djokovic have been playing each other to higher levels and leaving the rest behind.  To get back to that, he needs to stop losing to guys that he has owned in the past.  He has to work hard at his fitness and energy levels, so that he feels like he can get to any ball, at any stage of a 3 set match, at least (he has gone away in latter stages recently), not to mention best of 5, and then start winning these, to give him some confidence and not be so nervous.  He also has to play correctly.  He has seemed confused at what to do out there at times when he loses the plot.  His return of serve is certainly worrying.  He's doing that returning from the stands again and is lucky to get the ball back past the service line.  These big hitters like Verdasco must salivate.  Then when he gets behind, he tries to play with more aggression, but starts spraying balls as he moves up nearer the baseline or inside it.  His usual dependable forehand has been hot and cold and wandered away just when he needs it to work.   I still believe fitness and return of serve are the key for him.   

Ask yourself this question also.  Why has his game deteriorated so much against left handers recently?  He is 73-11 career against southpaws now, but only 5-4 in the last 52 weeks.  He's lost to Klizan, Feli Lopez, Berrer, and Verdasco.  He should handle these guys like he has handled them in the past.  But he hasn't.  The five lefties he has beaten in the last year don't generally have as good a serve or big forehands as these guys.  Rafa isn't returning them well enough, and he is not lasting long enough.   Miami in my opinion was time thrown away.  I don't know why he played, maybe they twisted his arm. He has never won there.  Exiting Larry Ellison's grounds and heading back to Manacor's clay courts and working on his clay court game 5-6 hours/day and playing practice matches with his considerable friends would have done him more good in my opinion, but I guess many could say, who am I? 

I haven't played tennis at anywhere near their level, but I have personally observed the greats and contenders from Laver, Pancho Gonzalez, Rosewall, Connors, Borg, McEnroe, Lendl, Sampras, Agassi, Federer,  Nadal, Djokovic, etc., to this day, and I've seen what it takes and what they do to win at the highest level and what happens when they lose what it takes to stay up there.  When their game or fitness level is off, and they have the burning desire to improve, they go off court and work like the devil on their games and fitness.  Otherwise, they are often distracted by other things in life, they begin to lose their ability and passion for the game, and they hang it up.  Their is no shame in that. It happens to all sportsmen in time.  When that time comes, one has to congratulate them for their contribution to the game and wish them well as they go on.   I won't pretend to know how Rafa feels at the moment; he says he wants to fix what is wrong, so we shall see what happens and wish him the best.  One thing I've learned over the years observing the greats, you can never write them off till they leave the game forever.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Lady TT, General Hercules, I agree with most of what you both say.  You both know Rafa and his game very well.

So I tried to step back from these recent events and look at it from the point of view since last year's Roland Garros.

If I recall correctly, Rafa in 2014 had overcome one of his poorest clay campaigns in 10 years to still win his amazing 9th title at Roland Garros.

So the good news for him is that even though he only played 16 matches on clay prior to Roland Garros, by the time he faced Djokovic, he was playing his 23rd match on clay.

Usually he has at least 20 matches on clay prior to Roland Garros, but he didn't last year.  On the other hand, he went deep on Miami's slow court last year prior to the clay season, which may have hurt him a bit for the clay season.

So let's use last year as a barometer of sorts.   Unfortunately, I don't think he is coming into this clay season as fit as previously, though he may be healthier after those maladies post Wimbledon last year and lack of playing time for the last 9 months or so.  I think he needs to do better this clay season than last year from both fitness and confidence perspective.   I think if he can get 18 matches on clay and at least 2 titles (preferably either MC or Rome Masters), he should be ok for RG. Less than those results, and it's not so good.   

The worst that can happen is he loses at RG.  Well, he still has 9 titles there.  Nobody can take those from him. 

It's more important that he stays healthy to be fit and play more if that is what he wants to do.  If he doesn't then, he has already had a great career that will go down as one of the greatest in tennis history.  Could it have been even greater? Maybe, but it could have been worse also.  I believe as fans of great tennis and Nadal, one has to look at it from that bigger perspective.

We also have to look at the other players.  Rafa doesn't play in a vacuum.  Some of the younger players are beginning to step up a bit, like Raonic and Nishikori and others.  But maybe more importantly, Djokovic is fit as any player on the planet and playing as well as ever, and Federer is not doing badly, though surprising that at his age, he is still one of the few that seems capable of stopping Djokovic.  Murray looks like he is improved from last year, but still with not quite enough to challenge the top 2.  Why are the top guys so far above the rest?  They have supreme fitness, good scheduling, and of course the talent, match fitness, and confidence to play at that level. 

IF Rafa wants to get back to their level, he simply must have more match play that he lost after Wimbledon in 2014 through the end of the year.  But 2015 started relatively equally.  He needed to work hard to get his level back.  The top two are way ahead of him in that manner.  Federer and Djokovic have been playing each other to higher levels and leaving the rest behind.  To get back to that, he needs to stop losing to guys that he has owned in the past.  He has to work hard at his fitness and energy levels, so that he feels like he can get to any ball, at any stage of a 3 set match, at least (he has gone away in latter stages recently), not to mention best of 5, and then start winning these, to give him some confidence and not be so nervous.  He also has to play correctly.  He has seemed confused at what to do out there at times when he loses the plot.  His return of serve is certainly worrying.  He's doing that returning from the stands again and is lucky to get the ball back past the service line.  These big hitters like Verdasco must salivate.  Then when he gets behind, he tries to play with more aggression, but starts spraying balls as he moves up nearer the baseline or inside it.  His usual dependable forehand has been hot and cold and wandered away just when he needs it to work.   I still believe fitness and return of serve are the key for him.   

Ask yourself this question also.  Why has his game deteriorated so much against left handers recently?  He is 73-11 career against southpaws now, but only 5-4 in the last 52 weeks.  He's lost to Klizan, Feli Lopez, Berrer, and Verdasco.  He should handle these guys like he has handled them in the past.  But he hasn't.  The five lefties he has beaten in the last year don't generally have as good a serve or big forehands as these guys.  Rafa isn't returning them well enough, and he is not lasting long enough.   Miami in my opinion was time thrown away.  I don't know why he played, maybe they twisted his arm. He has never won there.  Exiting Larry Ellison's grounds and heading back to Manacor's clay courts and working on his clay court game 5-6 hours/day and playing practice matches with his considerable friends would have done him more good in my opinion, but I guess many could say, who am I? 

I haven't played tennis at anywhere near their level, but I have personally observed the greats and contenders from Laver, Pancho Gonzalez, Rosewall, Connors, Borg, McEnroe, Lendl, Sampras, Agassi, Federer,  Nadal, Djokovic, etc., to this day, and I've seen what it takes and what they do to win at the highest level and what happens when they lose what it takes to stay up there.  When their game or fitness level is off, and they have the burning desire to improve, they go off court and work like the devil on their games and fitness.  Otherwise, they are often distracted by other things in life, they begin to lose their ability and passion for the game, and they hang it up.  Their is no shame in that. It happens to all sportsmen in time.  When that time comes, one has to congratulate them for their contribution to the game and wish them well as they go on.   I won't pretend to know how Rafa feels at the moment; he says he wants to fix what is wrong, so we shall see what happens and wish him the best.  One thing I've learned over the years observing the greats, you can never write them off till they leave the game forever.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Why are the expectations high?  I think they almost always are for a top player and they are indeed there for several if one follows the players.  Pundits/journalists often love to either bury or put the top ones on a pedestal.  And I think the great ones contribute to those expectations rightly or wrongly largely due to their own success.

We do have recent examples.  Lest people forget,  during 2013, Federer was having a poor season after Indian Wells through to autumn, he was under the microscope as would be expected when one is one of the great players, and half the pundits/journalists were saying he was done and dusted due to his age, back, competition, whatever, and just couldn't see him coming back against the likes of the 1, 2, punch of the younger prime players Nadal and Djokovic.  Many of the other half were wishing his form would return to be competitive at the very top but were hedging mostly due to his age.  Then as we saw in 2014, after completing his racquet change and restoring his health, he indeed did come back to compete well at the top, and despite not winning a slam, was good enough in the other tournaments that he still had a chance to be year end #1 before the last tournament.  Expectations from the pundits/press are somewhat more limited now with him then they were in the past (after his huge success from 2004-2007), mostly due to his age relative to the others, but they are still there to an extent depending on how much success he has.  Expectations will probably continue to be pretty high for him at Wimbledon as long as he continues to produce there.

Oh, and by the way, Federer has earned his exemptions from playing in the required masters like anyone else who has earned them.  The rules came in place for commitment players (top 30) long ago, and they basically are:  The commitment players are required to play in at least 8 of 9 masters (MC is optional). One can earn 1 tournament exemption credit for playing over 12 years on tour.  Another for playing over 600 matches, and  another exemption for being over 31 years old.  If you have all 3, you get complete exemption.  I frankly don't understand anyone's resentment of the commitment exemption rule, as it seems as though any player who has earned these exemptions is entitled to them.  I believe Nadal is entitled to at least two exemptions now (12 years and 600 matches).  And just how often has Federer used his exemptions? Miami this year. He played 8 of 9 masters in 2014.  He played 6 of 9 in 2013 and 2012. Then at least 8 of 9, the years before.   So that's 5 in all years he has played (excepting any injuries), and he is 33 going on 34 this year.  Remember, he hasn't had to play in ANY masters 1000 since 2013, but the cash reward bonuses at the end of the year are lucrative, so as long as it fits in with his plan and health, I think he'll continue to play a high percentage of them.

Also, who can forget Nadal's astounding 2013?  Nadal certainly helped raise the comeback expectations himself, after a 7 month absence from the game from his loss at Wimbledon 2012 to Rosol to after the Australian Open in 2013.  7 months gone. No matches, nothing.  And yet, after a few minor clay matches in South America, he came back like gangbusters at Indian Wells and went on from there to roll on clay, including winning his 8th Roland Garros title.  After the blip that was Wimbledon (Darcis), he swept the North American hard court series,  including the US Open.  He ended up as year end #1.  So, in a manner of speaking, his own rather unusual success following a lengthy layoff set the stage for great expectations in the future even after having little or no play.   His long time, almost legendary warrior success of dealing successfully after injuries, mishaps, setbacks only seems to reinforce the expectations, though as he gets older, I think this is misplaced. It can only be getting more difficult for him as time is an enemy of every sportsman.

Unfortunately for him, it hasn't quite come to pass in the same way as 2012-2013.  Instead, in 2014, he returned from his post Wimbledon wrist injury in the fall, which is traditionally, his worst part of the season.  He did not do well, and then there was the appendicitis issue, and did not do well either.  He was playing some matches, but with no reward, and perhaps losing confidence.  So in a sense, it was almost worse than being totally out of action as in 2012.  After the winter break, he played in Doha and was beaten in his first match, then Australia and after a couple of promising early round matches, got dismantled by Berdych in the QF, who had not beaten him in an age - something like 16 straight since 2006 Madrid, if I recall correctly.  Nadal did go to South America again, and finally won his 1st title since 2014 RG, in the minor Buenos Aires tourney against his good friend Juan Monaco.  And we know the latest.  So, in this case, the expectations that he would return and do well have not come to pass, YET, and rightly or wrongly, he is even under the microscope more, as people speculate about what is wrong.  Well, the clay season is almost here, and most hope and feel that this is what he needs to escalate his game, again, raising expectations due to his past tremendous success on the surface.

Djokovic?  Hmm, certainly since his 3 slam year in 2011, many expected that Novak would begin dominating the tour.   Well, as pointed out, it hasn't really happened at the slams. Of course this isn't only due to his "failure" to meet expectations, but with guys like Murray, Nadal, and Federer still in the mix, along with a couple of new winners, Wawrinka and Cilic, it hasn't happened for him at the Slams.  But he still has been the most consistent player since 2011, ending up at Year End #1 every year except Nadal's 2013, where he finished a strong #2.  So many Djokovic fans might say that he is meeting or exceeding expectations in that sense, even if not winning more slams.  Again, because of his success, he is definitely under the microscope very much this year.  Many pundits are saying it may be his best chance to win at RG and even have begun talk about a Grand Slam (prematurely in my opinion).  Well, if he only takes the Aussie Open this year, many might say he failed.  But if he retains the #1 ranking, others will still say he successful.

I see Murray's fall 2013-2014 has very similar to Nadal's fall 2014-2015, or vice versa.   Murray won Wimbledon in 2013, raising expectations for himself even higher, but then had the back surgery in the fall, and his early 2014 level was in and out at best.  Then he lost Lendl, and his level deteriorated more, despite a fair showing at RG before Nadal dismantled him.  He disappointed many of his followers at Wimbledon who expected him to be back near his best after he said he was physically fine, but it was clear his level against top 10 players was not there yet as he had not beaten a single one since the previous Wimbledon.  He would eventually beat a top ten player in Tsonga, and later Ferrer, but he continued his struggle against the top 3, especially the top 2 in Djokovic and Federer.  Even though he showed some promise in winning some minor fall titles, and again raised expectations for a good showing in the season ender, he only won a single match at the World Tour Finals and got his worst career tour beating by Federer.  He made the Aussie Open final this year, but again was well beaten by Djokovic in the final, and again in Indian Wells, so he is yet to reach top level.  Miami has been good to him, so many expect/hope that he will do well there, as well as Wimbledon again based on his past exploits, which lead to those dreaded expectations again.  After his back surgery, I personally feel there should have been some expectations that he may never reach top level again.  Most undergoing back surgery have not. But hope springs eternal as they say.

Even up and coming players have expectations.  Look at Grigor Dimitrov or Dynamitrov as some affectionately have named him.  He was being called baby Fed for quite awhile.  He had some good results and people have had the expectations he would advance to the fore rapidly.  But, he has not.  Some of it is him and his team, some of it is unrealistic expectations, some of it is other players. Thanks to some success and the ATP hype machine, he is one of the young players under the microscope, like Raonic.  Raonic has established himself as a solid top 10 player, but like some others that have hung out there much longer, has not shown it in a slam yet.  From what I've seen in his case, he seems to have more expectations than many pundits do.  That might change with more success, and then he'll come under the microscope.  It was interesting and telling that in a recent interview, Federer was asked if young Coric plays like Djokovic.  Federer's response was basically: "Don't put that on him, please. It's tough enough."  Expectations and the microscope of public and press have indeed hampered many a career, and I think Federer was saying give the kid a chance to get better without the comparisons, and rightly so.

Respectfully,
masterclass