CAMELOT FANTASIES

Very honest and incredibly detailed  posts general.  Well done, sir.

To me, it was a sad, even if predictable day.

The previous day, I saw Roger losing to Stan in straight sets at a major. While I thought Stan was playing well enough to beat Roger, I didn't think it would happen like that. But it proves the margins are small at the top. If on the day one player plays incredibly well, and the other player not so incredible, this can happen.  I don't think Roger played poorly at all, but he didn't play well enough when it mattered. Federer probably has in his arsenal the biggest variety in tennis, but that only helps if you can use it. 

The very windy day favored the person who could do what he wanted the most and not be affected by the wind.  Usually, Federer is a pretty good wind player. Recall that he beat Agassi in a gale wind at the US Open in 2004, I think.  Even beating Nadal at Indian Wells in the cool desert strong wind of 2012  But usually the best player in wind is the one who has the ability to hit through it the strongest, and with a low ball toss and strong serve.  And this day it was Wawrinka.  He did it better and stronger than Federer, simple as that.  Federer didn't serve well enough and got broken, and he couldn't return the monster Wawrinka 1st serve (averaging 130 mph) well enough to break, because he kept Federer guessing where it was going and placed it well.  You can't win if you can't break.  It's also difficult to use the volley on a windy day because the wind can make the balls that one can usually volley easily (like the floaters) dip or sail or go left and right at the last second, and it is easy to make an error.  The drop shot can also be a tricky proposition. Sometimes it works well, when the wind is against you, but other times it is just not worth it.  The slice and lobs can also be very tricky in wind to get right.  And slice is the shot that Roger usually uses against Wawrinka to change up the pace of the game and throw Wawrinka out of his power game rhythm.  Federer just couldn't use it enough. 

Give Wawrinka credit.  He was hitting incredibly well, hard, from a few meters behind the baseline and getting the ball to the Federer baseline.  To me, Stan basically played the Rafa rally game when Rafa was near his best.  But Stan also has the big serve.  He executed better and deservedly won.  I think he has a big chance to win the tournament if he plays like he did against Federer.  Roger said he will take a few days off and then go right to work on his grass game, which fits the aggressive style he has been playing anyway.

Now back to Nadal and Djokovic.  Unfortunately, it was no surprise to me or others who have followed him.  We all saw it coming and he saw it coming. No tournaments won during the clay season. Inconsistent play and losses to players he used to own. Rafa didn't have enough good clay matches in him to improve enough before he played Djokovic.  He played with a lot of heart in the first set, coming back from a 0-4 deficit, but then couldn't even make it to the tiebreaker with his poor service game and lost the first set.  He fought pretty well in the second set, but got broken again at the usual crucial stage of the set and couldn't break back and dropped the second.  We won't even talk about the 3rd.  I think that even if Rafa had won the close first set somehow, I don't think the result would have been much different.  It's clear he doesn't have the endurance needed.  We all talked about some of the reasons for this, and it is likely a combination of things.  Fitness in terms of endurance is one component, but it is not the only one. He didn't lose the first set or second set because of lack of endurance.  Strength maybe, but not endurance.

But one thing is for sure for me.  If Rafa no longer has the real motivation to do what it takes (what he says publicly may different), then it is going to be very difficult to stay near the top.
If he does have the motivation, the drive, then I think he can come back as long as he is healthy enough to do so.  But it's not going to come from getting out on the courts and just working on his forehand.  Uncle Toni said after the match that Nadal is not executing the forehand as he should and that it needs a lot of work.  Maybe it is not, and maybe Team Nadal knows better than I do, but I think it's a mistake to focus on the forehand.  I think the forehand is under too much pressure at this stage of Nadal's career.  I believe Nadal needs to adapt to his aging and his body's capabilities, much like Federer has had to do.  For him, Rafa, I think he needs more balanced play.  I don't think he can play the extremes, on the edge, as he was used to.  He was able to do that when he was more physical, younger, when he had more burst speed.

Aside from fitness improvements, which may be limited to his current physical health, I would work on the following technical issues:

If it were me, one of the first things I would do, is get Rafa to stop running around the forehand so much.  He needs to play a more balanced game.  He needs to work on that backhand so that he can get it back repeatedly, not just 3, 4, or 5 times before he nets it or sails one.  As soon as that happens in the match, and he loses confidence in the backhand drive, you will see he either runs around it, and puts himself way out of the court to hit the forehand, or he uses the defensive backhand slice, which is a safer shot, but tends to sit up for the opponent and he loses the offensive advantage.  Instead, if were to really work on his two handed backhand, make it as dependable as other top player's backhands, like Djokovic, then he wouldn't need to do that.  And, he could automatically cover his forehand side easier, putting less pressure on himself to make a fantastic forehand shot on the run. He wouldn't have to rely on his speed as much if he plays more balanced.  If he improved the backhand, I think the forehand would take care of itself.

Second, the return needs work.  If he can't get the return back to decent depth more than he is, he is going to have a hard time breaking serve.  I don't think he can stand so far back anymore. Now perhaps this is because of a drop in physical strength.  If so, and he can't get it back for whatever reason, then he needs to get closer to the baseline.  He needs to work with a big server and get some confidence standing closer and returning sooner, so that it puts some pressure back on the server.  He is giving the server too much time and space to dominate the point.

Third, he could stand to improve his serve and get some easier points.  Even Djokovic has done this, since hiring Becker, and he has benefited from it.  It doesn't have to be a great deal of improvement, but some would help.

Fourth, he should begin considering using his good volley skills more to shorten points on occasion to mix things up.  Now, he only seems to volley when he absolutely needs to or is forced to because of a short ball.  More doubles would help him, only if he plays doubles correctly, coming to net and playing the volley game to enhance his reflexes.

Anyway, this is what I would advise, but again, I'm not privy to all that is going on with him, so take it for what it is worth.

Finally,  to put it in perspective, he's won 9 titles at Roland Garros. Nobody can take from him. 
On the other hand, he has come up empty during his best part of the season.  If Tsonga should somehow beat Wawrinka (I doubt it, but you never know with the French crowd, etc.), then Rafa is out of the top 10 for the first time since early 2005, as Wimbledon approaches.  The good news is he has almost no points to defend after that, and has a great opportunity to get that ranking back up there so that he avoids playing top players too early in draws.  So he needs to decide how much more work and effort he wants to put into his tennis.  Don't write him off just yet. You can't do that with the great ones until they hang up their racquets.

Respectfully,
masterclass

fantastic post general.



wawrinka has been putting in major time in the gym and on the fitness front. he has endurance to burn and power to kill.

also you don't get that sharp off the ground by accident. you know his coaches have out there on the practice courts.

the man was hitting 136 MPH serves with ease. Justin gimelstob marveled at his physicality at age 30+.


that is called motivation, drive, and hunger. he simply wont go away.




as for rafa, he has to become the rafa of the past. fearless, hungry, and driven beyond belief.

he has to find his relentless will to win and his killer instinct again.


it is either that or I think we see retirement at the end of 2016.


it was the saddest day of my life even thought I saw it coming near the end of 2013. I saw what he was doing.

I knew it would lead to injuries, time away from clay, time away from the game, and quite possibly an abrupt end of a career.

and I knew it would kill his ground game which is all he has. that is how he came to conquer the world.

I even said so right here that it was a huge mistake to chase the #1 ranking at all those indoor hard courts.

his body said NO finally as it was going to at the Australian open. his body hit the wall.



more on this later.


he had also not doing enough with fitness. we all knew what was going to happen.

Quote from: masterclass on June 04, 2015, 07:37:23 am

Very honest and incredibly detailed  posts general.  Well done, sir.

To me, it was a sad, even if predictable day.

The previous day, I saw Roger losing to Stan in straight sets at a major. While I thought Stan was playing well enough to beat Roger, I didn't think it would happen like that. But it proves the margins are small at the top. If on the day one player plays incredibly well, and the other player not so incredible, this can happen.  I don't think Roger played poorly at all, but he didn't play well enough when it mattered. Federer probably has in his arsenal the biggest variety in tennis, but that only helps if you can use it. 

The very windy day favored the person who could do what he wanted the most and not be affected by the wind.  Usually, Federer is a pretty good wind player. Recall that he beat Agassi in a gale wind at the US Open in 2004, I think.  Even beating Nadal at Indian Wells in the cool desert strong wind of 2012  But usually the best player in wind is the one who has the ability to hit through it the strongest, and with a low ball toss and strong serve.  And this day it was Wawrinka.  He did it better and stronger than Federer, simple as that.  Federer didn't serve well enough and got broken, and he couldn't return the monster Wawrinka 1st serve (averaging 130 mph) well enough to break, because he kept Federer guessing where it was going and placed it well.  You can't win if you can't break.  It's also difficult to use the volley on a windy day because the wind can make the balls that one can usually volley easily (like the floaters) dip or sail or go left and right at the last second, and it is easy to make an error.  The drop shot can also be a tricky proposition. Sometimes it works well, when the wind is against you, but other times it is just not worth it.  The slice and lobs can also be very tricky in wind to get right.  And slice is the shot that Roger usually uses against Wawrinka to change up the pace of the game and throw Wawrinka out of his power game rhythm.  Federer just couldn't use it enough. 

Give Wawrinka credit.  He was hitting incredibly well, hard, from a few meters behind the baseline and getting the ball to the Federer baseline.  To me, Stan basically played the Rafa rally game when Rafa was near his best.  But Stan also has the big serve.  He executed better and deservedly won.  I think he has a big chance to win the tournament if he plays like he did against Federer.  Roger said he will take a few days off and then go right to work on his grass game, which fits the aggressive style he has been playing anyway.

Now back to Nadal and Djokovic.  Unfortunately, it was no surprise to me or others who have followed him.  We all saw it coming and he saw it coming. No tournaments won during the clay season. Inconsistent play and losses to players he used to own. Rafa didn't have enough good clay matches in him to improve enough before he played Djokovic.  He played with a lot of heart in the first set, coming back from a 0-4 deficit, but then couldn't even make it to the tiebreaker with his poor service game and lost the first set.  He fought pretty well in the second set, but got broken again at the usual crucial stage of the set and couldn't break back and dropped the second.  We won't even talk about the 3rd.  I think that even if Rafa had won the close first set somehow, I don't think the result would have been much different.  It's clear he doesn't have the endurance needed.  We all talked about some of the reasons for this, and it is likely a combination of things.  Fitness in terms of endurance is one component, but it is not the only one. He didn't lose the first set or second set because of lack of endurance.  Strength maybe, but not endurance.

But one thing is for sure for me.  If Rafa no longer has the real motivation to do what it takes (what he says publicly may different), then it is going to be very difficult to stay near the top.
If he does have the motivation, the drive, then I think he can come back as long as he is healthy enough to do so.  But it's not going to come from getting out on the courts and just working on his forehand.  Uncle Toni said after the match that Nadal is not executing the forehand as he should and that it needs a lot of work.  Maybe it is not, and maybe Team Nadal knows better than I do, but I think it's a mistake to focus on the forehand.  I think the forehand is under too much pressure at this stage of Nadal's career.  I believe Nadal needs to adapt to his aging and his body's capabilities, much like Federer has had to do.  For him, Rafa, I think he needs more balanced play.  I don't think he can play the extremes, on the edge, as he was used to.  He was able to do that when he was more physical, younger, when he had more burst speed.

Aside from fitness improvements, which may be limited to his current physical health, I would work on the following technical issues:

If it were me, one of the first things I would do, is get Rafa to stop running around the forehand so much.  He needs to play a more balanced game.  He needs to work on that backhand so that he can get it back repeatedly, not just 3, 4, or 5 times before he nets it or sails one.  As soon as that happens in the match, and he loses confidence in the backhand drive, you will see he either runs around it, and puts himself way out of the court to hit the forehand, or he uses the defensive backhand slice, which is a safer shot, but tends to sit up for the opponent and he loses the offensive advantage.  Instead, if were to really work on his two handed backhand, make it as dependable as other top player's backhands, like Djokovic, then he wouldn't need to do that.  And, he could automatically cover his forehand side easier, putting less pressure on himself to make a fantastic forehand shot on the run. He wouldn't have to rely on his speed as much if he plays more balanced.  If he improved the backhand, I think the forehand would take care of itself.

Second, the return needs work.  If he can't get the return back to decent depth more than he is, he is going to have a hard time breaking serve.  I don't think he can stand so far back anymore. Now perhaps this is because of a drop in physical strength.  If so, and he can't get it back for whatever reason, then he needs to get closer to the baseline.  He needs to work with a big server and get some confidence standing closer and returning sooner, so that it puts some pressure back on the server.  He is giving the server too much time and space to dominate the point.

Third, he could stand to improve his serve and get some easier points.  Even Djokovic has done this, since hiring Becker, and he has benefited from it.  It doesn't have to be a great deal of improvement, but some would help.

Fourth, he should begin considering using his good volley skills more to shorten points on occasion to mix things up.  Now, he only seems to volley when he absolutely needs to or is forced to because of a short ball.  More doubles would help him, only if he plays doubles correctly, coming to net and playing the volley game to enhance his reflexes.

Anyway, this is what I would advise, but again, I'm not privy to all that is going on with him, so take it for what it is worth.

Finally,  to put it in perspective, he's won 9 titles at Roland Garros. Nobody can take from him. 
On the other hand, he has come up empty during his best part of the season.  If Tsonga should somehow beat Wawrinka (I doubt it, but you never know with the French crowd, etc.), then Rafa is out of the top 10 for the first time since early 2005, as Wimbledon approaches.  The good news is he has almost no points to defend after that, and has a great opportunity to get that ranking back up there so that he avoids playing top players too early in draws.  So he needs to decide how much more work and effort he wants to put into his tennis.  Don't write him off just yet. You can't do that with the great ones until they hang up their racquets.

Respectfully,
masterclass

fantastic post general.



wawrinka has been putting in major time in the gym and on the fitness front. he has endurance to burn and power to kill.

also you don't get that sharp off the ground by accident. you know his coaches have out there on the practice courts.

the man was hitting 136 MPH serves with ease. Justin gimelstob marveled at his physicality at age 30+.


that is called motivation, drive, and hunger. he simply wont go away.




as for rafa, he has to become the rafa of the past. fearless, hungry, and driven beyond belief.

he has to find his relentless will to win and his killer instinct again.


it is either that or I think we see retirement at the end of 2016.


it was the saddest day of my life even thought I saw it coming near the end of 2013. I saw what he was doing.

I knew it would lead to injuries, time away from clay, time away from the game, and quite possibly an abrupt end of a career.

and I knew it would kill his ground game which is all he has. that is how he came to conquer the world.

I even said so right here that it was a huge mistake to chase the #1 ranking at all those indoor hard courts.

his body said NO finally as it was going to at the Australian open. his body hit the wall.



more on this later.


he had also not doing enough with fitness. we all knew what was going to happen.

Let's see what happens in the next couple of months general.  It could tell us a lot.  I read somewhere, but I can't remember where, that Rafa has also been depressed or upset about the Olympics in Rio next year not being on clay, and he may decide not to play.  I think he has a few things to sort out in his mind.  We'll know if he decides to get back to where he was. His play and the results will tell us. 

Nothing lasts forever in tennis.  Those playing well today might not be up there next year. In the last 3 years we have had Roger having a poor year in 2013, Murray in 2014, and Rafa in 2015. Maybe next year it is Novak's turn.  Who knows?  Eventually some of the youngsters have to rise and take their turn on the throne. It is inevitable.

In the 70's I watched the old stars of the 50's and 60's slowly fade away, Pancho Gonzales, Rod Laver, Ken Rosewall and the rest.  I watched the great Bjorn Borg call it quits still near the top of the game, upset at having the tennis organizations at the time telling him he had to play in x amount of tournaments, then after hurriedly leaving the US Open after getting threats on his life and getting beaten by McEnroe in his final Grand Slam match, he essentially retired at 26 years of age.  John McEnroe, for all his elegant game, for his over 70 singles titles and over 70 doubles titles left the top 10 at 30 and faded away. I watched Jimmy Connors hanging on at 39 at the US Open on his sheer fighting spirit to win, but even he had to call it quits.  We watched young Becker and young Chang, and young Sampras come in and take their place at the top as the super fit Lendl finally gave in to back problems. 

It's always a little sad when your old favorites and greats leave the game, yet it's exciting when we see new blood rise.   It's not poker, it's not fishing, it's not golf.  It's a very physical and mental sport that takes its toll. Players have a limited time to play at their best, make the most of the time, talent and energy they have, and then it's over.   It's the cycle of the sport of tennis.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Quote from: Clay Death on June 03, 2015, 07:20:22 pm

success of serena, Federer, djokovic, and now andy murray should provide plenty of motivation.


serena and Federer are older than dirt and they are doing it. one is ranked #1 and the other one is #2.

djokovic is outworking them all. he works out 3 times a day and never misses a day. he also practices year around on clay as much as possible. that keeps his knees and joints healthy and also keeps his ground game tuned up and sharp.

and now andy murray is working very hard also.



unless rafa starts training 7-8 hours a day on clay it is going to be extremely hard for him to win even a 250 level tournament going forward.

that is how much his game and his fitness has dropped.


it is really that simple. he has to work if he wants it bad enough.


and the in the off season--which is a lot longer now than it used to be--he has to put in very long and hard yards on the fitness front.


there is no other way out.

I think he is tired and unmotivated right now. That simple. Everyone sits down for a minute. So did the people you mentioned. Andy had his time, Serena, and Federer. You have to hit a brick wall to recharge your batteries. I don't think it matters what his ranking is, once HE decides what he wants to do, nothing is going to change.

Everyone is acting like Nole was so spectacular. That's not what I saw. I saw a weary, non-battle test combatant who wasn't sure what he wanted to do. It wasn't health, it was a lack of motivation. If Rafa's mind was in the right place I think he would have won. But, right now he's not interested in winning. There are some life's questions that he's thinking about that has nothing to do with legacy, majors, history, or any of that.

If it was, his practice sessions wouldn't be the joke that they are. While his fans may want all of these things, I don't think Rafa does at this point. He has always said that he wouldn't play beyond the time that he wasn't motivated to do so. When he came back in 2013, he had something to prove to himself. The comeback in 2015 never had that feeling, from the beginning to now. He didn't pick up tournaments for points, he didn't work on his fitness like he did in the past. Instead, he focused on his foundation and his works. That says a lot.

The first two sets he was competitive, but not at his usual level. This brings me back to Nole. How do you lose a two break lead in the first set, against a guy who has been losing left and right? A guy low on confidence who has lost more this season than he has in ten years? Nole was beatable in this match. He wasn't supreme like everyone else seems to think, at least not to me.

Rafa is at a turning point. He is not injured and there is no reason for his lack of motivation, except that he's going through things in his own life. i think Rafa is deciding whether he wants to play or start a new chapter in his life. That simple.

It doesn't bother me that he lost RG this year, or if he even decides to play next year. That is my concern, does he want to play?

All signs point to maybe, or maybe not.

Great post.


I think he comes back.


At some point he will realize that his world is tennis.


He will also get tired of getting abused and thrashed.


His Warrior spirit  and  his warrior heart will re-awaken at some point.


He will realize that he is still out there on the front lines. It serves no real purpose to not fight to win.

Quote from: thetruth on June 04, 2015, 08:38:45 am

Quote from: Clay Death on June 03, 2015, 07:20:22 pm

success of serena, Federer, djokovic, and now andy murray should provide plenty of motivation.


serena and Federer are older than dirt and they are doing it. one is ranked #1 and the other one is #2.

djokovic is outworking them all. he works out 3 times a day and never misses a day. he also practices year around on clay as much as possible. that keeps his knees and joints healthy and also keeps his ground game tuned up and sharp.

and now andy murray is working very hard also.



unless rafa starts training 7-8 hours a day on clay it is going to be extremely hard for him to win even a 250 level tournament going forward.

that is how much his game and his fitness has dropped.


it is really that simple. he has to work if he wants it bad enough.


and the in the off season--which is a lot longer now than it used to be--he has to put in very long and hard yards on the fitness front.


there is no other way out.

I think he is tired and unmotivated right now. That simple. Everyone sits down for a minute. So did the people you mentioned. Andy had his time, Serena, and Federer. You have to hit a brick wall to recharge your batteries. I don't think it matters what his ranking is, once HE decides what he wants to do, nothing is going to change.

Everyone is acting like Nole was so spectacular. That's not what I saw. I saw a weary, non-battle test combatant who wasn't sure what he wanted to do. It wasn't health, it was a lack of motivation. If Rafa's mind was in the right place I think he would have won. But, right now he's not interested in winning. There are some life's questions that he's thinking about that has nothing to do with legacy, majors, history, or any of that.

If it was, his practice sessions wouldn't be the joke that they are. While his fans may want all of these things, I don't think Rafa does at this point. He has always said that he wouldn't play beyond the time that he wasn't motivated to do so. When he came back in 2013, he had something to prove to himself. The comeback in 2015 never had that feeling, from the beginning to now. He didn't pick up tournaments for points, he didn't work on his fitness like he did in the past. Instead, he focused on his foundation and his works. That says a lot.

The first two sets he was competitive, but not at his usual level. This brings me back to Nole. How do you lose a two break lead in the first set, against a guy who has been losing left and right? A guy low on confidence who has lost more this season than he has in ten years? Nole was beatable in this match. He wasn't supreme like everyone else seems to think, at least not to me.

Rafa is at a turning point. He is not injured and there is no reason for his lack of motivation, except that he's going through things in his own life. i think Rafa is deciding whether he wants to play or start a new chapter in his life. That simple.

It doesn't bother me that he lost RG this year, or if he even decides to play next year. That is my concern, does he want to play?

All signs point to maybe, or maybe not.

Wonderful post Lady TT.  I notice you tend to look at the human side a bit more; always nice to have a different perspective.  I agree with what you said about Novak. He was beatable, he did get nervous, when Rafa made it close, but Rafa wasn't really in the state to take advantage of it. Let's see what happens in the semifinals.  All of these players remaining are good enough to take the title if they get hot.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Thanks masterclass. You're right, I always look at things from a humanistic POV. We all go through strange phenomena, and sometimes we get tired right before the goal. Rafa did not come back with the hunger, nor did he do what was needed to get there. He didn't seem fazed or upset at all about the losses like he would have in the past. Just a shrug of his shoulders and on to the next tournament.

I read somewhere that in a press conference that he called Maria, his girlfriend, his fiancee. There was also speculation that they were already married. This is interesting, if true. Rafa has always said that he wouldn't do both, be married, have a family, and continue to play. I don't know how true it is that they got married, or are getting married, but that would definitely throw a wrench in his plans. You never know.

Rafa's achievements are immortalized and we will be celebrating them forever and ever.

But the man is still playing. And still out there on the front lines.


My take is simple:

If he wants to come back stronger next year so he can be competitive then that next year starts now.


He has to start now. Get back on clay after Wimbledon.


Not to qualify for London but to try to come back much stronger next year.

Next year starts today. make plans to practice and play on clay after Wimbledon.


Get back in the game Rafa. Start today.

I can't tell if he wants to play, or did he just come back out of habit? Because it's something he's been doing all his life; because it's his job. There is no love of the game right now, no passion, no motivation. The only loss he seemed to care about was when Fognini got him twice in a row. He was ticked the second time, but all of the other losses he wasn't even bothered when he came to the net, nor in his press conferences. His attitude was flippant. "I played well, the other guy was too good."

What? Rafa? That's not who he is. He's not listening to Toni or his other coaches. He doesn't seem to care. This is a rough time, but he has a lot of questions to ask of himself, and the number one question is does he want to come back? Yes, he has a chance to stare down history, the question is, does he want to? How do you work yourself beyond the point that you're satisfied?

When hasn't Rafa been motivated to improve? He's changed his entire game to adjust to other surfaces. He learned how to win on grass and hard courts.

He can come back next year, and I hope that he does, but if his motivation doesn't change I can see him quitting after the French, not because he's done, but because he simply wants to move on, and the pressure from the fans is probably whats driving him right now. He doesn't want to disappoint us, but it's obvious that his heart and will is not in it. Right now.

Fingers crossed, that will change.

I said he is coming back stronger and more prepared next year but in truth there is only 10 percent chance of that happening.


I am very sad about all this.

It'll work out. This may be a defining moment for him.

He said all his career long how important RG was to him.


He said it set the tone for his whole season.

He walked away from the fight.


He had spent his entire life being a gladiator of the highest order.

He came to be known for his heart and for his fighting spirit.


It is jus hard for me to see him walk away from a fight time and again.


There is just no preparation. There is only talk.


He is not playing for us. He is playing for himself. There are quests to be had.

He has his legacy at stake in a way.


He has to hit back very hard.


He can do it. he has to realize that no other all time great ever got destroyed like this on their best surfaces.

They fought to the bitter end. giving up and walking away from the fight time and again tarnishes the end a bit.

Make the end beautiful and glorius.


Hit them back harder than ever.

I agree with everything that you're saying, and to be honest it's inexplicable. There is no reason for this and it appears to have come out of nowhere. The reason it's not bothering me so much is because I saw it in his first tournament back this year. The Mudabula Championships.

When I like a player I notice a lot of indiscernible things about them, especially their countenance. If I've watched them enough I can see whether they have the fight or determination for that particular day. For some reason I'm usually right.

When Rafa came back in 2013 he was determined from the first ball. He's always willing to take his knocks because he understands what it is that he wants to do, so although he didn't win his first tournament, the desire was there, and subsequently he went on to tear up the courts that year.

In 2014, when he hurt his back in the AO final, that took a lot of him. Dealing with all the injuries and getting to the final only to have his back go out was one of the most difficult losses he suffered. I think that took a lot out of him, but again he regrouped and won the French, but the rest of the season turned into a bust as he lost early at Wimbledon and then suffered another round of freak injuries and his season was wrapped up.

2015, when he came back he chose to start on hard courts, a strange decision, and one he hadn't done before. He went out to his pigeon. The old Rafa would've gotten on clay and built his confidence back up, but he didn't do that and he also passed on many small tournaments that he could've played to groove his game again, but he didn't.

I think he's just tired, mentally, physicially, and emotionally. That's it. The question is how much does he  want it? Right now it's hard to say. Rafa has always been satisfied with his accomplishments and felt very blessed to have accomplished so much. But he's never struck me as having the "champion's" mentality, as much as he had the "competitor's" mentality. Much like Lleyton. They want to play and win, and the trophies are great, but that's not the pinnacle for them.

What Rafa decides to do, we can only wait and see. I hope he decides to play, but it's going to be on his own terms. I seriously think that Rafa will quit if he's no longer enjoying it. I don't think he'll play for titles and legacy. That doesn't strike me as his personality. He's nowhere near done, but who knows what path he'll take.