CAMELOT FANTASIES

RIP: Rafael Nadal (2003-2015)?

by Sean Randall | July 2nd, 2015, 7:08 pm



 
18 Comments


All great athletes rise, all great athletes fall. Falling and failing, that’s what’s happening right now to Rafael Nadal.

Earlier today, as many of you saw, Nadal was sent out of Wimbledon for the fourth year in a row by a player who had no business beating a former No. 1. After head-scratching losses to Lukas Rosol, Steve Darcis and Nick Kyrgios, today the man who ended his grass season and effectively ended Nadal’s hopes of ever winning another Wimbledon, was Dustin Brown, a 102nd-ranked journeyman best known for having dreadlocks and once playing the tour out of a van.

The same issues that plagued Nadal all season once again spelled the demise of the Spaniard today. Brown did what he was supposed to do, pump the serve, play aggressive, keep the points short and close if given the opportunity. Brown checked all four boxes.

But Nadal just couldn’t find the range. Balls were carelessly sprayed, balls were landing short, his court positioning was poor, and he just couldn’t make the passing shots when he had to. On numerous occasions, Rafa couldn’t even manage to get a basic ball back. And sometimes the only thing he could hit with his racquet was his body.

Nadal once was on top of the world, threatening to eclipse Roger Federer’s greatness. Now he’s having trouble even to reach a round where he’d play Federer.

In the last year since winning the French Open, Nadal has just two titles in Buenos Aires and last month in Stuttgart, both over mediocre fields. Against his rivals, he’s been a shadow of his former self.

Since winning the French 15 months ago, he hasn’t beaten a Top 5 players, hasn’t made a Slam semifinal nor has he won a European clay title.

Of course Nadal has the experience and the talent to get back up to the top, but there’s been little evidence of that this season. Sure, guys can rebound and reboot. That happens all the time. Federer went through a slump, Murray’s had issues, and they got through.

Andre Agassi dropped to the challengers before roaring back, returning to greatness into his 30s.

Nadal’s case is vastly different, though.

Rafa isn’t even 30 yet, but unlike Agassi, he’s put more miles on his tires than most at that age. And unlike Federer, who plays a graceful, effortless games, Nadal puts his body through hell in every match.

Agassi, Federer and Murray also sought outside help when needed, bringing in new voices to help improve game. Nadal, however, has always been under the watchful eye of his uncle Toni and no one else. It’s hard to imagine him changing this now. It’s family first for Rafa.

So is this it for Rafa? Are his days of eating Grand Slam trophies and challenging for No. 1 over? Will he ever make another big final, or contend for major titles?

Sadly right now, everything points to no, no?

RIP: Rafael Nadal (2003-2015)?

by Sean Randall | July 2nd, 2015, 7:08 pm



 
18 Comments


All great athletes rise, all great athletes fall. Falling and failing, that’s what’s happening right now to Rafael Nadal.

Earlier today, as many of you saw, Nadal was sent out of Wimbledon for the fourth year in a row by a player who had no business beating a former No. 1. After head-scratching losses to Lukas Rosol, Steve Darcis and Nick Kyrgios, today the man who ended his grass season and effectively ended Nadal’s hopes of ever winning another Wimbledon, was Dustin Brown, a 102nd-ranked journeyman best known for having dreadlocks and once playing the tour out of a van.

The same issues that plagued Nadal all season once again spelled the demise of the Spaniard today. Brown did what he was supposed to do, pump the serve, play aggressive, keep the points short and close if given the opportunity. Brown checked all four boxes.

But Nadal just couldn’t find the range. Balls were carelessly sprayed, balls were landing short, his court positioning was poor, and he just couldn’t make the passing shots when he had to. On numerous occasions, Rafa couldn’t even manage to get a basic ball back. And sometimes the only thing he could hit with his racquet was his body.

Nadal once was on top of the world, threatening to eclipse Roger Federer’s greatness. Now he’s having trouble even to reach a round where he’d play Federer.

In the last year since winning the French Open, Nadal has just two titles in Buenos Aires and last month in Stuttgart, both over mediocre fields. Against his rivals, he’s been a shadow of his former self.

Since winning the French 15 months ago, he hasn’t beaten a Top 5 players, hasn’t made a Slam semifinal nor has he won a European clay title.

Of course Nadal has the experience and the talent to get back up to the top, but there’s been little evidence of that this season. Sure, guys can rebound and reboot. That happens all the time. Federer went through a slump, Murray’s had issues, and they got through.

Andre Agassi dropped to the challengers before roaring back, returning to greatness into his 30s.

Nadal’s case is vastly different, though.

Rafa isn’t even 30 yet, but unlike Agassi, he’s put more miles on his tires than most at that age. And unlike Federer, who plays a graceful, effortless games, Nadal puts his body through hell in every match.

Agassi, Federer and Murray also sought outside help when needed, bringing in new voices to help improve game. Nadal, however, has always been under the watchful eye of his uncle Toni and no one else. It’s hard to imagine him changing this now. It’s family first for Rafa.

So is this it for Rafa? Are his days of eating Grand Slam trophies and challenging for No. 1 over? Will he ever make another big final, or contend for major titles?

Sadly right now, everything points to no, no?

LOL! the experts, again. they crack me up, when they're not infuriating me.

life will be hard with no rafa in tennis.



I had hoped that he would play until he was 35-36 and leave fighting like hell as always.



we will just have re-live his glory years over and over again here at Camelot. what else can we do.


the sport of tennis will go into a steep decline after rafa and roger.

I can't even imagine tennis without Rafa. I stubbornly refuse to accept that this is the end. If I believed that this was the end I would be sad, but I don't feel that way. I always feel the heart of the people that I love, and yes I love Rafa. Rafa is not a quitter and I'll hang in there until the end.

I really don't feel like this is it for him. And you know I've never believed that "taxing style" theory. It doesn't make sense to me as I watch all of the players on tour. In fact, the only "expert" that I listen to is Brad Gilbert, I find him to be honest; the other ones not so much.

You'll see. 

at some point he just gave up the fight. shortly after that loss to wawrinka in Melbourne in 2014 he just went away.

General, you hit the nail on the head.  This is the result that delivered the crushing blow.  Wawrinka hits probably the heaviest shots in tennis. We just saw how he pummeled Novak Djokovic at Roland Garros.  If Novak were the slightest bit unfit or had any body weakness, I believe Wawrinka would have injured him. We saw how he injured Federer's back in the Master's Cup (WTF) at the very end of a tough match. He extended Federer to a point where the weakest part of his body failed.  A similar thing happened to Rafa at the 2014 Australian Open.  He wasn't quite fit enough, and Wawrinka played a monster first set and part way into the second set driving heavy shots that just extended Rafa past his physical limits, injured his back and began a decline in his confidence and mojo.

Once that happened, Rafa was struggling physically and emotionally the rest of the year and beyond.  The only thing he won of note was Roland Garros, but he did that mostly on inertia of his past glory and aura that created doubt in the minds of his opponents.  He struggled to win it, and has done virtually nothing of note since.

But the cause of these results happened before that.  I think after winning so much in 2013, holding that US Open trophy in his hand, something must have snapped in his head.  You see it often in the greats where they have accomplished something so big that they feel there is nothing left to prove and their motivation to keep achieving fails. 

I think it happened with Federer after a superb 2012, where he won Wimbledon, returned to #1, passed Sampras' record, and held it to Paris getting up to 302 weeks at #1.  What happened to him after that?  He went on a South American exhibition tour during the off season, and didn't train hard as he usually did.  He said to everyone that 2013 would be a transition year, where he would practice more and play less, and maybe experiment with some things like changing racquets.  In 2013, what happened?  His lack of training over the winter had made him vulnerable, and he reaped the whirlwind.  He hurt his back playing Dodig at Indian Wells, continued playing in the tournament instead of withdrawing, exacerbating it when managing to win against Wawrinka, then was obviously hampered by it when he lost to Nadal.  After that he wasn't the same. 

In 2013, Federer won only 1 title, in Halle.  He had averaged 4-5 titles/year from 2008 to 2012.  He shockingly lost in the second round at Wimbledon to #116 Stakhovsky, his worst loss in a major since 2002.  Sound familiar?  After that he went on the clay and experimented with switching to a larger racquet, but hurt his back again in Gstaad on clay, went back to his old racquet, but got beaten in Cinci,  and at the US Open lost to a player that had never beaten him, and should never have beaten him on hard courts, Robredo.  Sound familiar? After losing in New York early, Federer trained fairly hard and in the fall gradually began to recover his form and played decently, but didn't win anything with a final in Basel and semifinal results in Paris and London at the WTF.  In the off season between 2013 and 2014, Federer trained hard in Dubai again, got fit, and switched racquets from his old 90" to his current 97" model. 

So what happened? In 2014, he ended up making 11 finals, the most since his 12 finals in 2007.  He won only 5 of those, but two were Masters, and he was very close to winning Wimbledon. Even though his forehand was still not right after switching racquets, his backhand had more power, and his serve also was better.  But that power forehand was needed to win the close ones, and that was his goal for 2015, to win a higher percentage of finals than 50%.  So far in 2015 he has 4 wins in 6 finals, and his power forehand is coming around.  Against Querrey, I saw him unleash it like Federer of old.  So if he can keep that up, I think he'll be difficult to beat at Wimbledon this year, but we'll see, his age makes it more difficult to recover after tough ones. If he can keep winning these best of 5 in an hour until he gets to the business end he'll give himself a great chance.

I won't go into Murray's issues in detail, but it began with his victory at Wimbledon in 2013.  He achieved something monumental for himself.  He said it was his absolute dream, becoming the first British man in 77 years to win it.  After this win, he did not look as motivated, lost in some early rounds during the summer hard court season, and then finally elected to have surgery in the fall.  He couldn't train until late December.  2014 was his dead year.  He did almost nothing until the fall of 2014, where he won some minor tournaments that allowed him to qualify for the Master's Cup, but he was clearly spent and suffered heavy losses at the WTF, including his worst ever tour loss almost getting a double bagel from Federer.  Finally, Murray in the off season was able to train hard and get fit, and his results have been excellent since and he is back to #3 in the world, #2 in the race, and with a wide open draw now (Ferrer withdrawal, Nadal loss), he is almost a cinch to get to the semis at Wimbledon.

So what happened with Rafa after his 2013 US Open win?  What did he do, do you recall?  He followed Federer's example and in the off season went to South America and played in exhibitions, which cut his usual off season training. He played golf and poker. He did other things, and lost his fitness, and has paid the price since, starting with the 2014 Australian Open, and culminating with this loss to Brown at Wimbledon in 2015.  There is a difference between Nadal, and the Federer/Murray examples though.  They lost only a year. Rafa has had almost 2 years of struggling.  I think this happened purely because of poor decision making at the end of 2014. He should have taken that appendix surgery immediately, and not continued to play. Play for what?  Bad decision and I believe it cost him 2015.  After delaying that surgery, his off season training was delayed and very short.  He had no time to get fit for 2015, and we are seeing the result.

So, like Federer and Murray, I think if he wants to do it, he can train hard over the 2015-2016 off season and restore his fitness.  He has time now after Wimbledon to train some, but it isn't quite the same.  He can recover maybe 20-30% and maybe it will give him some fair results the rest of the year, not traditionally his strongest part of a season.  But he needs that off season over the winter to really train hard, and then I think you might see a different Nadal in 2016. Or should I say the Nadal of old?  But that only happens if he gets that fitness back, and if he wants it.  If not, then at his age/mileage, it won't look good for him, and he will put himself at high risk of getting injured again.  There are no short cuts (legal ones, anyway); he has to put in the hard work in the off season to perform well in 2016 and beyond.  He says he is physically healthy, so there is no excuse not to train hard, unless he just doesn't want to do it anymore. 

Rafa has excellent examples to follow, but whatever Rafa chooses to do, I wish him the best.

Respectfully,
masterclass

The sad reality is that Rafa's true rank would be outside top 100 right now and that is being generous.


I am afraid the fall is too steep.


It would take 8 months just to fix fitness.


And  then there is his game. Nothing can fix it unless he starts practicing 7-8 hours a day on clay.


He should be on clay right now. Practicing.


He does not need a coach. He needs his fire and hunger and drive back.

Federer and serena should have been more than enough motivation for Rafa but he just does not care to win anymore.

general hercules, news out of Bastad in the last day is that the Swedish Open tournament director is holding a wild card for Nadal and they are talking to him.

": I saved a wild card for special surprises like this. We will of course pay him a sum, but he has such a large market so we can take the discussion later in this case, says Swedish Open's tournament director Christer Hult."

We should know more on Monday...

----

So many pundits like McEnroe talking about Nadal axing Toni Nadal. McEnroe is just trying to stir the pot and get attention.  I'm almost sure it will never happen. Uncle Toni might walk away at a point of his own choosing but he won't be railroaded out, and neither will Nadal fire him.  I don't think this is an Uncle Toni problem.

Now what I think would be a great move is for Nadal to hire not a coach but a new physio trainer and for the team to put an emphasis on recovering his fitness.

If I could get Muster's physio I would.  No matter the cost of tearing him away from Djokovic, if he is still with him.  Or somebody like him.

But again, Rafa has to want it.  I think he has two choices if he wants it enough.  Get out there and play in some clay events, or don't play but train hard.

Respectfully,
masterclass