CAMELOT FANTASIES

Quote from: thetruth on November 12, 2015, 02:22:19 pm

Wow, this is a great article. Not good for me as a fan, but the truth is the truth.

Statisfaction: Looking at Nadal's Difficult 2015

By Chris Oddo | Wednesday, November 11, 2015

http://www.tennisnow.com/News/2015/November/Statisfaction-Looking-at-Nadal-s-Difficult-2015.aspx

Rafael Nadal's struggles against the top-10 have hindered his progress in the second half of 2015.

It has been a trying year for Rafael Nadal—that’s no secret. He's gone 4-10 vs. the Top-10 and won only one of eight vs. the Top-5. But the burning question still remains: why has Nadal’s once legendary game been diluted so much? Has Nadal just been the victim of nerves and are his struggles simply related to a lack of confidence in the big points? Or, are his issues larger and less correctable? Has the explosiveness and potency left his game, leaving his movement a step slow and his power less potent? If so, can he remedy this by 2016?

All year we’ve been curious to know what exactly is holding Nadal back. Rather than speculate we headed over to Tennis Abstract to get some cold, hard statistical insight into Nadal’s 2015. Has it really been as bad as it seems? Is he close to pulling out of it? We pulled five stats that tell the story of Rafael Nadal’s struggles. While they are no means a death sentence—it feels like Nadal is getting closer to finding his missing mojo every week—they do paint a picture of a player who has at least temporarily lost his dominion over the elite.

All stats come courtesy of Tennis Abstract:

1: Service Games Held: After spending 2012 and 2013 in the top-5 of this category, Nadal’s numbers have slipped in the last two years.
Service Games Held, Overall ranking/ Pct

2015: 16th, 84.1
2014: 13th, 85.3
2013: 5th, 88.1

2. Serving Woes vs. Top-10: Nadal has struggled even more vs. the ATP’s elite. This is where we really begin to see the difference in Nadal’s statistics.

Service Games Held vs. Top-10, Ranking/Pct

2015: 21st, 70.8
2014: 18th, 78.7
2013: 5th, 82.7

3. Sets won vs Top-10: Winning sets has been a challenge vs. the top-10. Again, the numbers are quite startling.
Sets Won vs. Top-10, Pct:

2015: 10-23, 30.3
2014: 18-12, 60
2013: 52-19, 73.2
4. Struggling to break Top-10 also: Our belief is that Nadal’s serve, and his difficulty holding serve, has been his biggest issue in 2015. But the stats show that he’s struggling to break against elite players as well:
Return games won vs. Top-10, Pct/ overall ranking
2015: 14.6, 18th
2014: 29.5, 3rd
2013: 31.5, 1st

Nadal’s doing fine in his return games overall, however:

Return Games Won, Overall, PCT/ overall ranking:

2015: 34.8, 2nd
2014: 35, 1st
2013: 33.8, 2nd

Note: Nadal broke 37.4 percent of the time on clay against the ATP this year, but against the Top-10 on clay, he only broke 19.7 percent of the time (in six matches). Apparently, Nadal has a mountain to climb on clay, just as he does on hard.
Do these statistics help shed any light on Nadal’s form, and give any guidance as to what he might need to do to improve his results? They probably make his situation look far worse than it really is. In reality, it doesn’t seem like he’s in a different league as the ATP’s Top-10 at the moment. But the stats do tell a different story.
We should find out a whole lot more next week in London, when only the Top-8 will be in play at the World Tour Finals. It’s the perfect opportunity for Nadal to get his confidence back against the players he’ll need to beat next year if he is to return to Grand Slam and Masters 1000 winning form.

that just shows that this fall was not by accident but by design. he walked away. that is why the casualties are so heavy on every front.

we have been saying that here for a while now.


also I saw this coming nearly 4 years ago. this drop is nearly 4 years in the making.


now you know what he is up against. this article says that he has a mountain to climb on clay as well.

well that is where they are wrong. he was never going to be much of a factor on the hard courts after that dream run of hard courts titles in 2013.

too many injury setbacks were right around the corner and they happened. that is one thing. secondly, little by little he was giving away his clay kingdom.

he was slowly and surely losing his unique competitive edge on the red clay. some of that was by design and some of that was injuries sustained on the hard courts.

at some point he was going to lose his competitive advantage on the red clay. it had to happen and it did.

excessive infatuation with the hard courts cost him. there was a time to back off the hard courts and it was right after 2013 U.S. Open title.

he foolishly chased #1 rank and ran his body into the ground to a point where it would hit the wall at the Australian Open.

sometimes in 2015--most likely after Barcelona--he called off the dogs and walked away.


this is why the casualties are so heavy. this is not a crisis of confidence. this is a crisis of lack of sufficient hunger and drive which led to doing as little as possible with the game and the fitness.

in the mean time his global popularity continues to soar and the world places huge demands on his time but also throws millions and millions at him for that time.

sometime after Barcelona he walked away.


he also prepared for his clay season in a worst possible way. he went on a vacation to costa rica before indian wells and he went to Miami where he nearly sprained his ankle. he accomplished nothing in indian wells and in Miami this time around.

he had skipped Miami last year.


so to prepare a little bit for monte carlo he brought in his buddy Monaco. not surprisingly his practice sessions were lame and pretty much a joke. they laughed and wasted a lot of time.

so it is possible that he walked away even before Indian Wells. but you can see the results of such little activity.


everything is suffering. he has no consistency at all. his serve is weak. his shots lack the depth and the pace.

his movement is horrible at best. his court positioning is now worse because he is trying to compensate for his lack of proper fitness.


he has a very tall mountain to climb. and it has to start on clay. if he cant beat them there then he cant beat them anywhere.

he did all this to himself and only he can fix it. by immense amount of hard work.


more on this later.

Quote from: thetruth on November 15, 2015, 09:06:57 am

I have some questions that maybe you guys can answer, because honestly, a lot of what I hear doesn't jibe with what I see.

1. What is this "punishing style" of play that Rafa has, and is he the only one in the history of the sport to have this "punishing style?" Before Rafa I had never heard that term before and I have been watching tennis for decades. I usually watch matches twice, the first time without sound because I can't stand to hear the commentators all use the same phrases and vernacular. I think that's odd. It's like they all share the same brain. It's the sameness that irks me. Does anyone have a different POV? Who is someone else who has a punishing style? There has to be someone  else. To me, the game is extremely physical and everyone looks like they're working hard out there.

2. Why do they say that Agassi is a better returner than Novak? I don't see that either. Agassi doesn't have half the movement that Novak has, or return. So that confuses me as well.

These questions may seem odd to you all, but they really bother me because I don't think it's true, maybe you all can answer it, because someone saying something ad nauseum is not enough to convince me. I need cold, hard, facts!

Hi Lady TT,

1. I think I'll defer this one to general hercules.  But from experience I'll say the topspin game is very hard on a player, which is what I think is meant as "punishing".  Generally, one has to stay farther behind the baseline because one needs more time to be able to give the big swing that is needed to provide the rotation on the ball. One is also hitting the ball on the decline instead of the rise.  That means the ball is slowing down, so requires more of one's own  power. It also equals more power needed to get the produce the distance and spin, more leg strength, more arm strength.  The other part is that he does a lot of running behind the baseline, often because he likes to run around the backhand to hit his forehand.  If it is not an outright winner, he often has to run across to cover the opened up forehand wing.

2. Cold hard facts about Agassi's return game.  Hmm.  I watched Agassi, and yes, he had a great return, but even better baseline game. He could hit many on the half volley, and returned early (on the rise) and not a great deal of clearance over the net (but more than Connors who also had a great flat return).  But hard facts? What about stats? 

Return games won percentage Career on All surfaces:
Agassi is 4th, behind Coria 35%, Nadal 33%, Ferrer 32%, Agassi 32%, and Djokovic is 5th. 
On hard court, return games won pct. for career, Agassi is 2nd behind Andy Murray, Djokovic is 3rd. 

2nd serve return points won % for career on all surfaces?  Agassi is on top, Ferrer 3rd, Nadal 4th, and Djokovic 5th. 

Career 1st serve return pts won on all surfaces? Coria 1st, Ferrer 2nd, Nadal 3rd, Murray 4th, Federer 10th, and Djokovic 11th, Agassi 26th.  But even though there is a relatively large separation on placement, note the percentage differences are often tiny.  In this stat, Coria had 36%. Ferrer, Nadal, and Murray at 34 and fraction, Federer and Djokovic at 33% and a fraction, Agassi at 32% and a fraction.

Of course, some players return better on grass, or hard, or clay.

And lastly, Agassi did it mostly back in the day when the surfaces were more different.  Fast inconsistent grass instead of the higher bouncing table top grass of the last few years. Slow clay.  Faster hard courts and carpet.  So I judge that it was more difficult to return and the baseline game was more difficult to play on 3 of 4 surfaces.  Whereas today, the baseline game is almost the only one that gets played because of the generally slower, higher bouncing surfaces.  This started in 2002 with grass, later with hard courts - 2006 or so, and carpet was steadily replaced during the early-mid 2000's, and  was totally removed by 2009. There are exceptions of course, like Cincinnati, which has stayed about medium fast, Dubai, and some of the 250 tournaments, like Brisbane and Sydney, and a couple in France, but for the most part everything other than clay has been slowed down from what I saw in the 70's , 80's, and 90's.  So I give Agassi extra credit for his ability to return on generally faster surfaces.

Those are the stats. 

Respectfully,
masterclass

heavy topspin strokes--backhand and the forehand require an extreme expenditure of energy.

and that is each and every single shot executed requires almost 2 times the energy expenditure of somebody just hitting it flat and early.

andre Agassi is an example of that. djokovic is another example except that it is even less than usual energy expenditure because of the leverage he enjoys due to his height.

just look the RPMs Rafa generates on his forehand wing with each and every single shot hit from that wing and usually from deep behind the baseline.

heavy topspin players like vilas, muster, borg, and rafa had to develop extreme fitness to practice their trade on the courts.

muster had no problem running for 20 miles after 3-4 hours of practice.

borg could practice for 6+ hours and not even break a sweat.

vilas once practiced for nearly 3 hours after one of his matches at the Italian Open.

translation: these men were called the iron men of tennis because they had to be. their game and their style of play demanded it.

finally extreme fitness (physical endurance) was not enough alone. they had to be very strong physically as well. meaning they needed supreme physicality as well.


Rafa failed to maintain and even improve his fitness and his physicality so vital to his trade. that is the biggest reason for his decline.

he simply fades away in the middle of his matches. uncle tony said he "checks out". and then he also said that Rafa lost his fighting spirit.


Rafa became a little bit complacent after 2010. he failed to maintain his extreme fitness and his immense physicality. this led to enormous number of injuries and also a staggering number of losses to djokovic.

djokovic, in the mean time, saw an opportunity and never looked back. he took his fitness higher than ever before while Rafa allowed himself to stagnate.

Rafa also failed to progress and innovate his game which caused the rest of the world to catch up a little bit.

what djokovic saw is this: he saw that he could own the world if he could win the long rally. he basically stole Rafa's book.

Rafa was the greatest baseliner on the planet in 2010. that alone allowed him to bag 4 more RG crowns.

but he started to lose the long rally. meaning that he could not fight to death for every single point like he always had. he could not control the baseline as he always had. he could not outwill and outlast them time and again. so the losses started to become more frequent.

djokovic saw what was happening and took full advantage. now he owns the long rally and the world.

own the long rally and you can own the world.

this is what djokovic did to andy murray in Bercy. he took nearly 70% of the points from the baseline. he took the long rally and totally demolished andy murray. looked at another way, Rafa was able to win just 10% of the points from the baseline against Berdych in Melbourne and accordingly got destroyed in the process.

but getting back what we were talking about, the heavy topspin strokes--by their very mechanics and nature--require extreme energy expenditure.

it is the most demanding style of play on the planet.

the sport is very demanding today and becoming more so with each passing week no matter what your style of play is but the heavy topspin game is the most demanding of all styles of play.


more next time.

Quote from: thetruth on November 15, 2015, 09:06:57 am

I have some questions that maybe you guys can answer, because honestly, a lot of what I hear doesn't jibe with what I see.

1. What is this "punishing style" of play that Rafa has, and is he the only one in the history of the sport to have this "punishing style?" Before Rafa I had never heard that term before and I have been watching tennis for decades. I usually watch matches twice, the first time without sound because I can't stand to hear the commentators all use the same phrases and vernacular. I think that's odd. It's like they all share the same brain. It's the sameness that irks me. Does anyone have a different POV? Who is someone else who has a punishing style? There has to be someone  else. To me, the game is extremely physical and everyone looks like they're working hard out there.

2. Why do they say that Agassi is a better returner than Novak? I don't see that either. Agassi doesn't have half the movement that Novak has, or return. So that confuses me as well.

These questions may seem odd to you all, but they really bother me because I don't think it's true, maybe you all can answer it, because someone saying something ad nauseum is not enough to convince me. I need cold, hard, facts!

Hi Lady TT,

1. I think I'll defer this one to general hercules.  But from experience I'll say the topspin game is very hard on a player, which is what I think is meant as "punishing".  Generally, one has to stay farther behind the baseline because one needs more time to be able to give the big swing that is needed to provide the rotation on the ball. One is also hitting the ball on the decline instead of the rise.  That means the ball is slowing down, so requires more of one's own  power. It also equals more power needed to get the produce the distance and spin, more leg strength, more arm strength.  The other part is that he does a lot of running behind the baseline, often because he likes to run around the backhand to hit his forehand.  If it is not an outright winner, he often has to run across to cover the opened up forehand wing.

2. Cold hard facts about Agassi's return game.  Hmm.  I watched Agassi, and yes, he had a great return, but even better baseline game. He could hit many on the half volley, and returned early (on the rise) and not a great deal of clearance over the net (but more than Connors who also had a great flat return).  But hard facts? What about stats? 

Return games won percentage Career on All surfaces:
Agassi is 4th, behind Coria 35%, Nadal 33%, Ferrer 32%, Agassi 32%, and Djokovic is 5th. 
On hard court, return games won pct. for career, Agassi is 2nd behind Andy Murray, Djokovic is 3rd. 

2nd serve return points won % for career on all surfaces?  Agassi is on top, Ferrer 3rd, Nadal 4th, and Djokovic 5th. 

Career 1st serve return pts won on all surfaces? Coria 1st, Ferrer 2nd, Nadal 3rd, Murray 4th, Federer 10th, and Djokovic 11th, Agassi 26th.  But even though there is a relatively large separation on placement, note the percentage differences are often tiny.  In this stat, Coria had 36%. Ferrer, Nadal, and Murray at 34 and fraction, Federer and Djokovic at 33% and a fraction, Agassi at 32% and a fraction.

Of course, some players return better on grass, or hard, or clay.

And lastly, Agassi did it mostly back in the day when the surfaces were more different.  Fast inconsistent grass instead of the higher bouncing table top grass of the last few years. Slow clay.  Faster hard courts and carpet.  So I judge that it was more difficult to return and the baseline game was more difficult to play on 3 of 4 surfaces.  Whereas today, the baseline game is almost the only one that gets played because of the generally slower, higher bouncing surfaces.  This started in 2002 with grass, later with hard courts - 2006 or so, and carpet was steadily replaced during the early-mid 2000's, and  was totally removed by 2009. There are exceptions of course, like Cincinnati, which has stayed about medium fast, Dubai, and some of the 250 tournaments, like Brisbane and Sydney, and a couple in France, but for the most part everything other than clay has been slowed down from what I saw in the 70's , 80's, and 90's.  So I give Agassi extra credit for his ability to return on generally faster surfaces.

Those are the stats. 

Respectfully,
masterclass