CAMELOT FANTASIES

Lady TT, General Hercules, I agree with most of what you both say.  You both know Rafa and his game very well.

So I tried to step back from these recent events and look at it from the point of view since last year's Roland Garros.

If I recall correctly, Rafa in 2014 had overcome one of his poorest clay campaigns in 10 years to still win his amazing 9th title at Roland Garros.

So the good news for him is that even though he only played 16 matches on clay prior to Roland Garros, by the time he faced Djokovic, he was playing his 23rd match on clay.

Usually he has at least 20 matches on clay prior to Roland Garros, but he didn't last year.  On the other hand, he went deep on Miami's slow court last year prior to the clay season, which may have hurt him a bit for the clay season.

So let's use last year as a barometer of sorts.   Unfortunately, I don't think he is coming into this clay season as fit as previously, though he may be healthier after those maladies post Wimbledon last year and lack of playing time for the last 9 months or so.  I think he needs to do better this clay season than last year from both fitness and confidence perspective.   I think if he can get 18 matches on clay and at least 2 titles (preferably either MC or Rome Masters), he should be ok for RG. Less than those results, and it's not so good.   

The worst that can happen is he loses at RG.  Well, he still has 9 titles there.  Nobody can take those from him. 

It's more important that he stays healthy to be fit and play more if that is what he wants to do.  If he doesn't then, he has already had a great career that will go down as one of the greatest in tennis history.  Could it have been even greater? Maybe, but it could have been worse also.  I believe as fans of great tennis and Nadal, one has to look at it from that bigger perspective.

We also have to look at the other players.  Rafa doesn't play in a vacuum.  Some of the younger players are beginning to step up a bit, like Raonic and Nishikori and others.  But maybe more importantly, Djokovic is fit as any player on the planet and playing as well as ever, and Federer is not doing badly, though surprising that at his age, he is still one of the few that seems capable of stopping Djokovic.  Murray looks like he is improved from last year, but still with not quite enough to challenge the top 2.  Why are the top guys so far above the rest?  They have supreme fitness, good scheduling, and of course the talent, match fitness, and confidence to play at that level. 

IF Rafa wants to get back to their level, he simply must have more match play that he lost after Wimbledon in 2014 through the end of the year.  But 2015 started relatively equally.  He needed to work hard to get his level back.  The top two are way ahead of him in that manner.  Federer and Djokovic have been playing each other to higher levels and leaving the rest behind.  To get back to that, he needs to stop losing to guys that he has owned in the past.  He has to work hard at his fitness and energy levels, so that he feels like he can get to any ball, at any stage of a 3 set match, at least (he has gone away in latter stages recently), not to mention best of 5, and then start winning these, to give him some confidence and not be so nervous.  He also has to play correctly.  He has seemed confused at what to do out there at times when he loses the plot.  His return of serve is certainly worrying.  He's doing that returning from the stands again and is lucky to get the ball back past the service line.  These big hitters like Verdasco must salivate.  Then when he gets behind, he tries to play with more aggression, but starts spraying balls as he moves up nearer the baseline or inside it.  His usual dependable forehand has been hot and cold and wandered away just when he needs it to work.   I still believe fitness and return of serve are the key for him.   

Ask yourself this question also.  Why has his game deteriorated so much against left handers recently?  He is 73-11 career against southpaws now, but only 5-4 in the last 52 weeks.  He's lost to Klizan, Feli Lopez, Berrer, and Verdasco.  He should handle these guys like he has handled them in the past.  But he hasn't.  The five lefties he has beaten in the last year don't generally have as good a serve or big forehands as these guys.  Rafa isn't returning them well enough, and he is not lasting long enough.   Miami in my opinion was time thrown away.  I don't know why he played, maybe they twisted his arm. He has never won there.  Exiting Larry Ellison's grounds and heading back to Manacor's clay courts and working on his clay court game 5-6 hours/day and playing practice matches with his considerable friends would have done him more good in my opinion, but I guess many could say, who am I? 

I haven't played tennis at anywhere near their level, but I have personally observed the greats and contenders from Laver, Pancho Gonzalez, Rosewall, Connors, Borg, McEnroe, Lendl, Sampras, Agassi, Federer,  Nadal, Djokovic, etc., to this day, and I've seen what it takes and what they do to win at the highest level and what happens when they lose what it takes to stay up there.  When their game or fitness level is off, and they have the burning desire to improve, they go off court and work like the devil on their games and fitness.  Otherwise, they are often distracted by other things in life, they begin to lose their ability and passion for the game, and they hang it up.  Their is no shame in that. It happens to all sportsmen in time.  When that time comes, one has to congratulate them for their contribution to the game and wish them well as they go on.   I won't pretend to know how Rafa feels at the moment; he says he wants to fix what is wrong, so we shall see what happens and wish him the best.  One thing I've learned over the years observing the greats, you can never write them off till they leave the game forever.

Respectfully,
masterclass

that is a great post general.



he has had plenty of setbacks in the past and overcame them all but one thing is different this year:


dramatic and significant decline in fitness precisely at the time others really stepped up their fitness and took it to the next level.


this applies to players nearly 7-10 years older than him also.


so needless to say but that COMPOUNDS his fitness issues.


the wrist injury was to the right hand. he still could have hit a million forehands. he could have worked on his net game.

you don't even need legs to be supremely fit. he could have done more cycling and other fitness related work in gym.

and then there is the pool. he could have done more swimming.


I don't have to believe tony or anybody else. I know Rafa's fitness and his game better than Tony.


that said Tony is right: Rafa is often worn out after just 40 minutes of hard play and often exits the match right in the middle of it.

I will say this again: Rafa had the talent and the speed. and he had the relentless will. but what set him apart from the rest of the world was his fitness and his sheer physicality. he was simply stronger than all of them.

accordingly he was able to outwork them and outhustle them and overpower them. he could go the extra mile or two.


that physicality is now considerably diminished. you are not going to be able to get that physicality back in 2 months.


this is why guys like Federer and nole never miss a single day with their fitness work.

Federer routinely even stretches 2-3 times a day.


Rafa just has to get his fitness and his physicality back. he is sitting duck out there without those 2 things.

you saw what berdych did to him in melbourne. you saw that fognini blasted him right off the court in rio in those last 2 sets.

rafa did not have his physicality and he was worn out. he complained that it was too hot there in Rio.



it will take a great deal of luck to capture RG this year. now you know why tony is worried to death.

only me and general masterclass saw this coming many years ago.


and the bigger and more profound issue is not that Rafa fails to capture RG: the problem for Rafa is that Nole could run past him in total slam count.

and with the RG crown nole will end up being too far out in front.


Rafa is the only one that can stop Nole from getting too far out in front.


right now Nole has no competition at slams. nobody can match his fitness and his work ethic. he brought in Becker. he is constantly bringing in people to help him and to advise him.



translation: Rafa needs to wake up. nole stole the page from Rafa's own book. he is beating the world on his fitness and his physicality.

Rafa needs to relish this challenge and rise again. he has to find the hunger and the relentless will to win again.

he is just 29 in a few days so there is some time left but the window will close very quickly.