CAMELOT FANTASIES

Hi all! 

Well, I was waiting for the end of Madrid to say anything due to the up and down nature of Rafa's comeback this year.

And it manifested itself again.

But let's look on the bright side for a moment, shall we?

1. Rafa made it to the semis in Monte Carlo and lost to Djokovic - which was like playing a final.  He got 4 matches in.  He disappointed in Barcelona only getting 2 matches in, but in Madrid, he made it to the final and got 5 matches in. That's 11 matches.  If he can get 4 or 5 matches in Rome, that gives him 15/16.  If he can make it to the QF at RG, he'll have 5 more in for 20/21.  That's enough to win RG, if he plays well of course.

2. He looks to be pretty healthy.  He is gradually getting more fit.

3. From his effort, it looks like he is gaining confidence though still not sure of himself against the top guns, because he hasn't beaten them recently.

Unfortunately, there is a down side, as you all have pointed out.

1. Inconsistent play - looking great on some shots, but horrendous on others, and too many of those.

2. He has gotten outplayed by lesser players at the business end of the match indicating insufficient fitness still.

3. His confidence is not all there, even on clay with 46 titles and 9 RG.

4. Technically, he is still suffering.  Don't let his wins over Berdych or Dimitrov fool you.  He took advantage of Berdych, who doesn't move well enough and therefore defend well enough to compete with the best on clay.  As soon as he reached both a competent shot maker and defender in Andy Murray, Rafa's weaknesses were all exposed for all to see.  He couldn't match the Murray backhand to his forehand exchanges, which was a huge factor.  Why?  Rafa's forehand was just inconsistent.  Balls were flying on him and sailing out. But I believe the reason is that Rafa hit too many off balance, due to not having the speed/fitness to reach them.  Rafa's backhand and return were extremely short, those that went over the net giving Murray time and opportunity to step in to the court and hit wider angles deep to Rafa's forehand or backhand.  Rafa was often on the back foot meters behind the baseline.   

The bright point was Rafa's play at the net.  He won virtually everything there.  The trouble was that he didn't get more than 10 or so opportunities there. 

His forehand was inconsistent at best.  He hit many long or wide.  His backhand was woeful at times, I think at least a couple hit the bottom of the net or didn't make it there.  After getting broken in his first service game of the first set, Rafa hung in the set well on serve, but couldn't get through on Murray's serve.  The second set started the same or worse I should  say.  He couldn't hold his serve the opening two service games, and couldn't make a dent in Murray's. 

Sure, a lot of this was Murray's good, aggressive play, especially on his backhand wing.  The trouble was that Rafa couldn't take his opportunities, and they were there.  Murray's serve wasn't particularly good, hovering around 50% first serves in much of the match, ending up at 59%.  And Rafa let Murray get away with winning 80+ percent of his second serves by standing too deep, instead of standing inside the baseline and whipping Murray's 84 mph serves back at him, like most of the rest of the tour has been doing. When Murray embarrassingly missed a drive volley in the second set at 2-0 his ad on Rafa's serve, it seemed a great opportunity for Rafa to turn the match around.  Instead, he meekly lost his service game.  Rafa just didn't play well enough to string a few points in a row and get enough rhythm. 

Rafa said he just wants to delete this match from his mind and focus on his good matches.  Well, good luck with that.  You can't hide from your poor performances.  You have to look at them in cold light and make the improvements necessary, or else you will run into those problems again, the next time you meet a top player.

We've said it before, Rafa needs to work on his fitness, his return of serve, and depth of shots.  If he can't solve those, he won't be winning against top players, and he can lose to anyone who moves well on clay (like a Fognini).

The good news is there is still a little time, and he can make improvements if he works hard. But that window is closing fast.

Respectfully,
masterclass