CAMELOT FANTASIES

Hi all! 

Well, I was waiting for the end of Madrid to say anything due to the up and down nature of Rafa's comeback this year.

And it manifested itself again.

But let's look on the bright side for a moment, shall we?

1. Rafa made it to the semis in Monte Carlo and lost to Djokovic - which was like playing a final.  He got 4 matches in.  He disappointed in Barcelona only getting 2 matches in, but in Madrid, he made it to the final and got 5 matches in. That's 11 matches.  If he can get 4 or 5 matches in Rome, that gives him 15/16.  If he can make it to the QF at RG, he'll have 5 more in for 20/21.  That's enough to win RG, if he plays well of course.

2. He looks to be pretty healthy.  He is gradually getting more fit.

3. From his effort, it looks like he is gaining confidence though still not sure of himself against the top guns, because he hasn't beaten them recently.

Unfortunately, there is a down side, as you all have pointed out.

1. Inconsistent play - looking great on some shots, but horrendous on others, and too many of those.

2. He has gotten outplayed by lesser players at the business end of the match indicating insufficient fitness still.

3. His confidence is not all there, even on clay with 46 titles and 9 RG.

4. Technically, he is still suffering.  Don't let his wins over Berdych or Dimitrov fool you.  He took advantage of Berdych, who doesn't move well enough and therefore defend well enough to compete with the best on clay.  As soon as he reached both a competent shot maker and defender in Andy Murray, Rafa's weaknesses were all exposed for all to see.  He couldn't match the Murray backhand to his forehand exchanges, which was a huge factor.  Why?  Rafa's forehand was just inconsistent.  Balls were flying on him and sailing out. But I believe the reason is that Rafa hit too many off balance, due to not having the speed/fitness to reach them.  Rafa's backhand and return were extremely short, those that went over the net giving Murray time and opportunity to step in to the court and hit wider angles deep to Rafa's forehand or backhand.  Rafa was often on the back foot meters behind the baseline.   

The bright point was Rafa's play at the net.  He won virtually everything there.  The trouble was that he didn't get more than 10 or so opportunities there. 

His forehand was inconsistent at best.  He hit many long or wide.  His backhand was woeful at times, I think at least a couple hit the bottom of the net or didn't make it there.  After getting broken in his first service game of the first set, Rafa hung in the set well on serve, but couldn't get through on Murray's serve.  The second set started the same or worse I should  say.  He couldn't hold his serve the opening two service games, and couldn't make a dent in Murray's. 

Sure, a lot of this was Murray's good, aggressive play, especially on his backhand wing.  The trouble was that Rafa couldn't take his opportunities, and they were there.  Murray's serve wasn't particularly good, hovering around 50% first serves in much of the match, ending up at 59%.  And Rafa let Murray get away with winning 80+ percent of his second serves by standing too deep, instead of standing inside the baseline and whipping Murray's 84 mph serves back at him, like most of the rest of the tour has been doing. When Murray embarrassingly missed a drive volley in the second set at 2-0 his ad on Rafa's serve, it seemed a great opportunity for Rafa to turn the match around.  Instead, he meekly lost his service game.  Rafa just didn't play well enough to string a few points in a row and get enough rhythm. 

Rafa said he just wants to delete this match from his mind and focus on his good matches.  Well, good luck with that.  You can't hide from your poor performances.  You have to look at them in cold light and make the improvements necessary, or else you will run into those problems again, the next time you meet a top player.

We've said it before, Rafa needs to work on his fitness, his return of serve, and depth of shots.  If he can't solve those, he won't be winning against top players, and he can lose to anyone who moves well on clay (like a Fognini).

The good news is there is still a little time, and he can make improvements if he works hard. But that window is closing fast.

Respectfully,
masterclass

great post. I could not agree more.



he has to go out there and work it all out on the practice courts and on the fitness front.


I firmly believe that it is a crisis of fitness and physicality.


his game is very heavily dependent on those two factors.


in the absence of that he can at least go out there try to hit the ball 7-8 hours a day. he is not willing to do that and hence the inconsistency.

these are short matches. he can beat them with consistency at least for now but that wont come unless he ditches the world and just goes out there on the practice courts and stays on them. he has to dedicate himself to the sport.


90 minute sessions where he is pretty much just doing what he wants to do is not allowing him to get it done when it counts. he remains terrified of hitting backhands in practice. he refuses to practice his returns. they waste a lot of time in those already short practice sessions.


he spent his now limited physical and mental capital in getting to the final and had nothing left to give against Andy.


in the old days he could fight tooth and nail even when limping around and still beat them all on the red clay. he had his fitness and his physical strength to help him get through.


players say he looks almost frail and weak. well  this is not rocket science.

we all can see that. there has been too much inactivity. some due to injuries and but most due to lost focus.


only way to make all that up now is to work 6-8 hours a day on the practice courts.



nothing short of 2 practice sessions a day lasting at least 7 hours will fix some of the issues in the short run.


in the long run he has to work on his fitness and his physicality. if for nothing else then at least to prevent the next big injury which will end his career.



he gets 2 easy matches in rome after a bye and then we are in the same boat again.


he is terrified of djokovic now.


it is djokovic who should be terrified of nadal.

rafa has to change his mentality and then just get out there on the practice courts and work it all out.


he can do it. it is all up to him.


window is not only closing fast but it may even close permanently. he let these horses get too far out in front.



one final thing: he is also accepting all this which is not good. he cant accept this. he has to go out there and change his stars.