CAMELOT FANTASIES

You've said it all general hercules and Lady TT.  Great posts.

It's sad to see Rafa fail to win a single clay tournament in Europe leading up to Roland Garros.  It hasn't happened to him since he was 17, in 2004, before he won his first title in Sopot, Poland in August later the same year.

It's a survival of the fittest out there these days.

In the semis top half we have:

#1 Novak Djokovic, soon to turn 28 in 6 days, the fittest player on the planet, who when he is not playing trains for hours in Monte Carlo.
 vs.
#7 David Ferrer, who just turned 33 years old last month, known as the Wall, for running all day and getting so many shots back. He trains like the devil, 1.5 hours in the gym with a variety of strength and flexibility training in the morning, 2-3 hours practice, and 1 hour running in the afternoon.

and in the semis bottom half we have:

#2 Roger Federer, who turns 34 in 3 months, straight setted Tomas Berdych today and it wasn't as close as the score 6-3, 6-3 indicated.

vs.

#8 Stan Wawrinka, who turned 30 a couple of months ago, is known for having one of the most punishing backhands on tour, and his serve and forehand are not far behind.  He is one of the strongest men on tour.  His issue has always been consistency at the top level, but when he is peaking in his play, and he definitely did today against Rafa, he is tough to beat if you cannot find a way to keep him behind the baseline and limit his powerful strokes. 

I think Rafa's court positioning 3-5 meters behind the baseline was the key factor today and lack of fitness/strength as his forehand couldn't match Wawrinka's backhand, and even though he was fighting as well as he could, you could see he got more tired/worse as the match went on, while Wawrinka got better.  Obviously, the loss of the 1st set after being up 6-2 in the tiebreaker was a crushing blow.  But we must give credit to Wawrinka. He played lights out tennis to come back in the breaker and snatch the set.  Unfortunately, on most returns of serve Rafa was so close to the lines people on the back wall, he could probably have touched them.  This gives guys like Wawrinka too much time, and if Rafa doesn't return deep enough as happened, then it's like target practice out there for a guy like Wawrinka, making Rafa run like a madman. This is how a player can get injured, trying to extend himself too much for their fitness and play.  It's what happened in Australia in 2014 in my opinion.  So if Rafa comes out of Rome still healthy, that is at least a positive for Rafa. 

Rafa made it to the quarters in Rome, but he needs to get much better and fitter to win at Roland Garros this year. Most everyone on any forum is saying that Rafa is a different beast at Roland Garros and that 5 sets will help him.  I sorrowfully disagree with that today.  In the past, yes, it was always true.  But now?  I've seen such a decline in his fitness level, how is best of 5 going to help him, if he gets tired after 1.5 sets against the likes of Fognini and Wawrinka?  I don't know. Maybe the day off between matches will help him, but I'm grasping at straws for positives I guess.  The one thing that has to help him is winning 9 of 10 French Opens, but I think that probably only helps him if he makes a  final, and perhaps with some players who are still in awe of him.

But again, to put it in perspective, Rafa has done better than anyone would ever dream to win 9 of these.  Nobody can take those from him.  He can retire tomorrow if he wants and finish with one of the greatest careers in the history of the sport.  Anything more is really a bonus at this point, just like with Federer, who just passed 90 million dollars with today's victory in tennis earnings alone.  He might get that 100 million and 100 titles yet. Who knows?  Tennis fans around should be happy with seeing them both still playing, even if the results are not there as much or as often in the past.  One day they will hang up their racquets and it will be a sad day in tennis, but life goes on as they say, and there are others waiting to take on the challenges of the sport of tennis, but players like this cannot be replaced, only succeeded by the following generations who can only dream of lofty accomplishments such as theirs.

Respectfully,
masterclass

he pretty much had to win that match in Madrid in order to keep from dropping to #7 but in many ways this match is worse.

he had to win today in order to show that he was moving in the right direction. he needed to at least make the semis here so he could get some momentum going anyway.

I know what you are saying. of course wawrinka played well. and so did fognini in 4 straight sets against.


should fognini have any chance at all against rafa on the red clay? they are all playing well out there against rafa because rafa is letting them play that way.



as short as he drops the ball even a good college player would have a field day blasting away.

there is insufficient depth and then there is significantly less pace. that is allowing them to get to most of his shots while constantly putting him in defensive positions.

soderling once won the first game against rafa in rome and then proceeded to lose the next 12.



those at the match in madrid said that rafa was spent against andy which is what we said here. he spent too much mental and physical capital in getting rid of dimitrov and berdych and then had very little to give against andy.

they said that rafa was "utterly spent".

that is not the Rafa we have come to know.


this just makes the job that much more difficult. how on earth can you have any belief in such a depleted physical and mental state.




this is what tony said at the start of clay season: if we don't do well in monte carlo maybe we will try to do well in Barcelona.

and then he said if we fail in Barcelona then we still have Madrid and maybe we will try to get going there.


he went on to add that if they do well in Madrid and rome then maybe they can arrive in paris with some confidence.


now think about this: basically uncle tony was saying that he really did not know how and where we can win.

prior to that he had said that we will need luck this year.



and then finally he started to project more positivity by saying that Rafa's level is good enough for RG. he may have been saying that for public consumption and also to motivate and cheer up Rafa.



I am the greatest rafa fan ever lived so I have to call it like I see it and know it and understand it.  Rafa took a huge step back today. even a worse step back than in Madrid.


It will be hard to win even a 250 level tournament this year let alone a slam with his current level of fitness and physicality.



to put this in perspective, wawrinka had trouble winning back to back matches since Rotterdam. rafa had beaten him 12 times in a row on all surfaces prior to the back injury in 2013. in fact wawrinka failed to win a single set in those loses.


fognini had not won a single match in Barcelona in over 5 years.


this is not an ordinary fall for an all time great. this is a fall nearly 4 years in the making. he stopped paying attention to his clay domination.

he even installed an indoor hard court in Mallorca.



huge mistake. clay is the wellspring from which he flows. now he has no consistency compared to his own standards. he is robbed of the very thing that made him one of the greatest of all time. his ground game. that was all he had. that and his movement, his fitness, and his physicality. all that was backed by his relentless will.


now he has an inconsistent ground game. he does not trust his backhand and his forehand has lost its consistency and its potency.

his return has become a huge liability. it puts tremendous pressure on his own serve.

his court positioning is the worse it has ever been. he has little or no control of the center of the court and is constantly being forced to just lunge at the ball.




bottom line: he is not showing up prepared and they are taking advantage of him.


fundamentally it is up to Rafa. he has to decide to put an end to this slide.


we all know he can do it.


I just don't know what is keeping him from practicing 7-8 hours a day in light of this dramatic and significant decline.


vilas and muster are known for practicing even right after their matches to keep their ground game sharp and tuned up.


vilas was not happy with the way he was hitting so after one of his wins at the Italian open he went to the practice courts and worked on his game for over 2.5 hours.

and that was after a match that he had just won.


muster hit a million forehands while being strapped to a wooden bench.



rafa has to work. there is no other way.