CAMELOT FANTASIES

General, Lady TT, perhaps it's all part of the master plan?  I think Rafa doesn't want to be seen as such a solid favorite going into Roland Garros anymore. It puts too much pressure on him.  He prefers being the hunter, not the hunted. 

He was light on matches and preparation going into Rome.  Now he has 16 matches on clay going into Roland Garros.  If he can get past the first 4 matches, he'll have 20 under his belt.  That should be enough.  Let's wait for the draw to see if there are any landmines he might have in the first 4 rounds. 

If for some reason Rafa doesn't win it and gets upset, then I hope whoever does win, plays well to win it, and not get it due to injuries and poor play by the opponents.  In that case, it would be interesting if someone outside the big 4 would win.  But I can't see too many players who fit that description.  Maybe Ferrer, maybe Wawrinka. 

Ferrer has put in the time and effort.  If anyone deserves a slam win, it is him, if he can do it. 

Wawrinka is up and down, but he seems to be up at the right moments lately. IF he were to win, it would be the first time in about 20 years that someone has won the Australian and the French Open double - Jim Courier was the last to do so in 1992, and have a chance for a Grand Slam going into Wimbledon.  Wilander was the only other player to do it since Laver, four years earlier, in his 3 slam year.  Trouble is with Wilander and Courier is that their grass prowess was not so good. The same holds with Wawrinka.

Nishikori might be a dark horse, but he just seems to get injured too much to win 7 matches in a row.  He is certainly competent enough on the clay.  I can't see any other non-big 4 member getting it done.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Lady TT, I feel best of 5 on clay hurts Raonic and his primary weapon, the serve.  He is not the fittest player.  It's very difficult for a server to maintain his focus for 5 sets.  Isner was one who almost got it done a couple of years ago against Rafa in the first round at Roland Garros, but he just couldn't keep that serve going  for the whole 5 sets, plus it was Rafa.   

Also, these top guys return so well, it puts a lot of pressure on the server. 

Now Raonic has improved off the ground.  I see him going to the net more, his forehand is a weapon, and his backhand has improved from what it was.  But he more or less has to play like a Soderling, play high risk tennis, hit the ball hard and try to end points quickly.  That strategy might upset a few players, but it's difficult to keep that up for 7 matches on clay.  Clay helps him in some ways like it helps Isner.  It slows play down enough to allow him to get to balls easier than grass or faster hard.  And the ball bounces higher, which goes into the tall players strike zone.  This is primarily why Isner and Raonic have had some success on clay vs. grass.   

Grass requires better footwork than they have, especially on fresh slippery grass.  Once you get into the second week at Wimbledon, it gets easier for those that don't have the best footwork, since the baseline becomes more like dirt, especially if the weather has been sunny and dry.  But it's not always easy to make it to the second week there.   It would surprise me to see Raonic progress past the QF at Roland Garros.  But of course, it depends on how the draw is and how it plays out.   

I think Tsonga at his best with the right draw might have a chance.  But he hasn't been at his best this year, and for some reason has been unlucky with draws lately.  Also, there is more pressure on him in Paris, being French.  He really should have beaten Djokovic a couple of years ago in the QF.  He was up 2 sets to 1 and had him in that 4th set and it slipped away,  and he lost the tiebreaker 10-8. 
Tsonga has the ability to raise his level very high, but he can't seem to keep it for more than a couple of matches.  Berdych can beat anybody but Rafa, and Djokovic too perhaps, but he also is not consistent from match to match. 

Del Potro being out of the picture helps the top players since he can beat any of them on his day, or at least give them a close enough battle that they will be tired for the next match.   So I'm guessing that at least 2 of the top 4 will make the semifinals.  But who knows, eh? That's why they play.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Quote from: masterclass on May 19, 2014, 01:22:37 am

General, Lady TT, perhaps it's all part of the master plan?  I think Rafa doesn't want to be seen as such a solid favorite going into Roland Garros anymore. It puts too much pressure on him.  He prefers being the hunter, not the hunted. 

He was light on matches and preparation going into Rome.  Now he has 16 matches on clay going into Roland Garros.  If he can get past the first 4 matches, he'll have 20 under his belt.  That should be enough.  Let's wait for the draw to see if there are any landmines he might have in the first 4 rounds. 

If for some reason Rafa doesn't win it and gets upset, then I hope whoever does win, plays well to win it, and not get it due to injuries and poor play by the opponents.  In that case, it would be interesting if someone outside the big 4 would win.  But I can't see too many players who fit that description.  Maybe Ferrer, maybe Wawrinka. 

Ferrer has put in the time and effort.  If anyone deserves a slam win, it is him, if he can do it. 

Wawrinka is up and down, but he seems to be up at the right moments lately. IF he were to win, it would be the first time in about 20 years that someone has won the Australian and the French Open double - Jim Courier was the last to do so in 1992, and have a chance for a Grand Slam going into Wimbledon.  Wilander was the only other player to do it since Laver, four years earlier, in his 3 slam year.  Trouble is with Wilander and Courier is that their grass prowess was not so good. The same holds with Wawrinka.

Nishikori might be a dark horse, but he just seems to get injured too much to win 7 matches in a row.  He is certainly competent enough on the clay.  I can't see any other non-big 4 member getting it done.

Respectfully,
masterclass

I think that back injury set rafa back. he was not able to play or practice for a while after that.


he barely got by in Rio. and then again he had to take 10 days off after that to rest his back. he said he was not able to serve for 10 days after Rio for example. his back took him out of the equation rather quickly in indian wells. he should have taken off for Mallorca right after that early loss in indian wells to go jump on the soft clay and start fixing his ground game and his return.


it is just lack of sufficient practice and match play on clay that has cost him all those titles that he could have easily snatched. he has not been working hard enough and it is costing him.

you saw what he was able to do on the hard courts last year. especially on the north American hard court circuit.


only question is this: when he was so close to challenging history, how could he lose some focus and motivation.

did he take clay for granted this year?