CAMELOT FANTASIES

Ok

Happy Mothers Day Lady TT

Thank you. I'm assuming you are not a mother, yet? What a thoughtful thing to remember. Muah.

Hi all! 

Well, I was waiting for the end of Madrid to say anything due to the up and down nature of Rafa's comeback this year.

And it manifested itself again.

But let's look on the bright side for a moment, shall we?

1. Rafa made it to the semis in Monte Carlo and lost to Djokovic - which was like playing a final.  He got 4 matches in.  He disappointed in Barcelona only getting 2 matches in, but in Madrid, he made it to the final and got 5 matches in. That's 11 matches.  If he can get 4 or 5 matches in Rome, that gives him 15/16.  If he can make it to the QF at RG, he'll have 5 more in for 20/21.  That's enough to win RG, if he plays well of course.

2. He looks to be pretty healthy.  He is gradually getting more fit.

3. From his effort, it looks like he is gaining confidence though still not sure of himself against the top guns, because he hasn't beaten them recently.

Unfortunately, there is a down side, as you all have pointed out.

1. Inconsistent play - looking great on some shots, but horrendous on others, and too many of those.

2. He has gotten outplayed by lesser players at the business end of the match indicating insufficient fitness still.

3. His confidence is not all there, even on clay with 46 titles and 9 RG.

4. Technically, he is still suffering.  Don't let his wins over Berdych or Dimitrov fool you.  He took advantage of Berdych, who doesn't move well enough and therefore defend well enough to compete with the best on clay.  As soon as he reached both a competent shot maker and defender in Andy Murray, Rafa's weaknesses were all exposed for all to see.  He couldn't match the Murray backhand to his forehand exchanges, which was a huge factor.  Why?  Rafa's forehand was just inconsistent.  Balls were flying on him and sailing out. But I believe the reason is that Rafa hit too many off balance, due to not having the speed/fitness to reach them.  Rafa's backhand and return were extremely short, those that went over the net giving Murray time and opportunity to step in to the court and hit wider angles deep to Rafa's forehand or backhand.  Rafa was often on the back foot meters behind the baseline.   

The bright point was Rafa's play at the net.  He won virtually everything there.  The trouble was that he didn't get more than 10 or so opportunities there. 

His forehand was inconsistent at best.  He hit many long or wide.  His backhand was woeful at times, I think at least a couple hit the bottom of the net or didn't make it there.  After getting broken in his first service game of the first set, Rafa hung in the set well on serve, but couldn't get through on Murray's serve.  The second set started the same or worse I should  say.  He couldn't hold his serve the opening two service games, and couldn't make a dent in Murray's. 

Sure, a lot of this was Murray's good, aggressive play, especially on his backhand wing.  The trouble was that Rafa couldn't take his opportunities, and they were there.  Murray's serve wasn't particularly good, hovering around 50% first serves in much of the match, ending up at 59%.  And Rafa let Murray get away with winning 80+ percent of his second serves by standing too deep, instead of standing inside the baseline and whipping Murray's 84 mph serves back at him, like most of the rest of the tour has been doing. When Murray embarrassingly missed a drive volley in the second set at 2-0 his ad on Rafa's serve, it seemed a great opportunity for Rafa to turn the match around.  Instead, he meekly lost his service game.  Rafa just didn't play well enough to string a few points in a row and get enough rhythm. 

Rafa said he just wants to delete this match from his mind and focus on his good matches.  Well, good luck with that.  You can't hide from your poor performances.  You have to look at them in cold light and make the improvements necessary, or else you will run into those problems again, the next time you meet a top player.

We've said it before, Rafa needs to work on his fitness, his return of serve, and depth of shots.  If he can't solve those, he won't be winning against top players, and he can lose to anyone who moves well on clay (like a Fognini).

The good news is there is still a little time, and he can make improvements if he works hard. But that window is closing fast.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Great post, as usual, masterclass!

Rafa losing those forehand-to-backhand rallies was really painful to watch, it used to be only Djokovic (and, to some extend Nalbandian) who could do that to him. But Rafa is indeed a step slower, what really boggles my mind is that he plays passive, short balls and he relies too much on defending. Well, he is not 26 anymore, those days are long gone!
I have a question for you - do you thing that at this point of his career Rafa would benefit from hiring a coach? I am not talking about replacing Toni but rather hiring somebody on his team with perhaps a fresh perspective on his game.

Excellent post general, and Lady TT.  It's indeed up to Rafa.  And to answer General Tee, I don't think another coach would help him at this point, unless he could get a physiotherapist like Gebhard Phil-Gritsch, Muster's former physio.  If he is motivated enough to work hard, I think he'll get it done.  If not, then what can you say. He's done everything to do in tennis and more as one of the greatest players ever.  Maybe he'll coast awhile, but I don't know if he can afford to do that for too long.  The other top players and now some of the others are not standing still.  It gets harder to catch up with them, and becomes a vicious circle. You stop winning enough matches to be competitive with the top ones, and even some lesser ranked players, and you lose your level, and you lose more, and you lose confidence, and you lose more, and it takes a long time to get back to where you were originally, if you ever do.  Many of the greatest in the past couldn't get their level back after missing too much time and going down too long, and simply had to retire.  For what it's worth, I personally think Rafa is trending up, but I'm not sure he has the time to get it done at RG. He took a couple of steps forward to make the Madrid finals, but took a step back against Murray, and lost his #4 rank, dropping to 7.  Soon, he can't afford any back sliding.  If he does not do well in Rome, and heaven forbid, RG, he's in danger of falling out of the top 10.  I don't think it will happen, but that is what he is facing.

Federer, as you mention Lady TT, had a tough 2013 (2012 was excellent as he went to #1 until Paris after winning Wimbledon), winning only the Halle title, and it really took until almost 2014 before he found his better level again, and even then with the change of racquets, he had a hard time getting the forehand consistent until maybe Cincinnati and Shanghai last year.  I still think he lacks control on it at times as he floats more long these days, but he definitely looks better on the backhand.  But these days, in 2015, as in the past at times, he is eligible to getting beaten by some player that has not much to lose and plays extremely well on the day, especially if Federer is a bit off.   He won Brisbane, but got beaten in Australia by Seppi, who said it was the best match he ever played - I thought Federer was around average that day.  He won in Dubai vs Djokovic,  then was edged out by Djokovic at Indian Wells, playing well, obviously, but was soundly beaten by Monfils in Monte Carlo.  Monfils said it was one of the best matches he played.  Then Federer went to Istanbul to kick off that inaugural tournament, and won the title and got more matches in on clay. Even though he did not seem at his best, he was good enough to beat the players he faced.

Then in Madrid, Federer lost his 4th match of the year when he got edged out in 3 very close sets by on fire youngster Kyrgios, and we know this guy is a monster when his serve and forehand are on.  Even Federer hammering 50 winners to 36 unforced compared to Kyrgios 45 winners to 41 unforced couldn't swing it for Federer.  Roger won 2 more points on serve and 2 more points on return more than Nick, and had the better stats.  But Kyrgios simply played the biggest points in the 2 tie breakers he won better than Federer. coming up with some amazing clutch shots to overcome Federer's match points and won the last tiebreaker 14-12 and that was it.  Federer though, also has a problem.  Here and there he is failing to protect his serve when he goes ahead in a match.  It seems he relaxes a bit.  He had the set lead and a break for a 2-1 lead on Kyrgios, but played a poor service game and allowed Kyrgios back in the match.  “I think this is the greatest win of my career,” said Kyrgios, short as it is so far.   Did any of those players (other than Nole) go on to win the title?  No, as often happens,  those players lost their next match or within a couple, as is many times the case when conquering a top player, it's tough to reproduce that extremely good form match after match.  No reason for Federer fans to panic, even though he had that 2nd round defeat, it wasn't a bad match.  Since post Roland Garros 2014, Federer has had 8 titles (inc. Davis Cup), and 4 finals in 19 tournaments, and the guy is pushing 34 now.  He's #2 for a reason. But with guys like Djokovic and Murray playing so well, Federer has to keep playing well if he wants to stay up there and can't afford to lose early in too many tournaments.

Anyway, there is a lot of tennis to come.  We are in the home stretch of the clay season, and the grass season follows.  Let's see where we are at when the dust settles and the grass is worn out.
We might get the same "Big 4" players winning the biggest tournaments, or maybe we will get some new blood.  We are very much past due for the new blood to start taking more important titles.

Respectfully,
masterclass

This is what Rafa said:

Nadal: "It's a pleasure play in Madrid. Today I had a day to forget but this week I recovered good feelings. Now I'll try again in Roma.
I feel that this week is positive. I'm not disappointed. I'm looking for play in a good level for two weeks in a row.
I lost my confidence from the beginning. My backhand today didn't work at well. Murray was better than me. I couldn't pressure him.
I didn't play well at the key moments to comeback in the match. I had chances but I did a bad game at the beginning of second set.
I'll arrive tomorrow to Roma. I want to have a positive week. It's different play without altitude conditions. I'll die to try.
Be ranked No.7 changes nothing for Roland Garros. Maybe if I'm out of Top8. It's normal when you're out by six months.
Reach a final never is a bad result. I'll fight to end the season into the Top4. If I can't reach it, I'll accept that situation


Rafa:"The backhand, I will fix", Nadal in english. Says wanna forget this day cause it's not time to be negative. "I cannot leave Madrid not happy. I have to leave Madrid happy and just delete what happened today."
"Be ranked No.7 changes nothing for Roland Garros. Maybe if I'm out of Top8. It's normal when you're out by six months".
‪#‎Nadal‬: "I'll arrive tomorrow to Roma. I want to have a positive week. It's different play without altitude conditions. I'll die to try"
#Nadal: "Reach a final never is a bad result. I'll fight to end the season into the Top4. If I can't reach it, I'll accept that situation".

Excellent read. Thanks for posting it lady TT.


We will hope for the best for Rafa.


No more injuries and no more setbacks.


He can't afford any injuries in 2015.


It is hard enough to catch those horses so far out in front without any injuries.


May the gods give him the strength to retain his RG crown.


That will fix quite a few issues instantly.

again we all called this at Camelot.


and so did Rafa actually. he said he will have to work hard.



now we will wait and see if he can show some progress in Rome.

there is no other way out: he has to get on those practice courts and stay on them for 6-8 hours a day to recapture some of the consistency.

the idiot press is asking Rafa about a coaching change.



these clueless fools just cant comprehend anything.


that is an insult to Rafa and to his uncle. he is more than a coach. he is family.

Quote from: masterclass on May 11, 2015, 02:57:25 am

Hi all! 

Well, I was waiting for the end of Madrid to say anything due to the up and down nature of Rafa's comeback this year.

And it manifested itself again.

But let's look on the bright side for a moment, shall we?

1. Rafa made it to the semis in Monte Carlo and lost to Djokovic - which was like playing a final.  He got 4 matches in.  He disappointed in Barcelona only getting 2 matches in, but in Madrid, he made it to the final and got 5 matches in. That's 11 matches.  If he can get 4 or 5 matches in Rome, that gives him 15/16.  If he can make it to the QF at RG, he'll have 5 more in for 20/21.  That's enough to win RG, if he plays well of course.

2. He looks to be pretty healthy.  He is gradually getting more fit.

3. From his effort, it looks like he is gaining confidence though still not sure of himself against the top guns, because he hasn't beaten them recently.

Unfortunately, there is a down side, as you all have pointed out.

1. Inconsistent play - looking great on some shots, but horrendous on others, and too many of those.

2. He has gotten outplayed by lesser players at the business end of the match indicating insufficient fitness still.

3. His confidence is not all there, even on clay with 46 titles and 9 RG.

4. Technically, he is still suffering.  Don't let his wins over Berdych or Dimitrov fool you.  He took advantage of Berdych, who doesn't move well enough and therefore defend well enough to compete with the best on clay.  As soon as he reached both a competent shot maker and defender in Andy Murray, Rafa's weaknesses were all exposed for all to see.  He couldn't match the Murray backhand to his forehand exchanges, which was a huge factor.  Why?  Rafa's forehand was just inconsistent.  Balls were flying on him and sailing out. But I believe the reason is that Rafa hit too many off balance, due to not having the speed/fitness to reach them.  Rafa's backhand and return were extremely short, those that went over the net giving Murray time and opportunity to step in to the court and hit wider angles deep to Rafa's forehand or backhand.  Rafa was often on the back foot meters behind the baseline.   

The bright point was Rafa's play at the net.  He won virtually everything there.  The trouble was that he didn't get more than 10 or so opportunities there. 

His forehand was inconsistent at best.  He hit many long or wide.  His backhand was woeful at times, I think at least a couple hit the bottom of the net or didn't make it there.  After getting broken in his first service game of the first set, Rafa hung in the set well on serve, but couldn't get through on Murray's serve.  The second set started the same or worse I should  say.  He couldn't hold his serve the opening two service games, and couldn't make a dent in Murray's. 

Sure, a lot of this was Murray's good, aggressive play, especially on his backhand wing.  The trouble was that Rafa couldn't take his opportunities, and they were there.  Murray's serve wasn't particularly good, hovering around 50% first serves in much of the match, ending up at 59%.  And Rafa let Murray get away with winning 80+ percent of his second serves by standing too deep, instead of standing inside the baseline and whipping Murray's 84 mph serves back at him, like most of the rest of the tour has been doing. When Murray embarrassingly missed a drive volley in the second set at 2-0 his ad on Rafa's serve, it seemed a great opportunity for Rafa to turn the match around.  Instead, he meekly lost his service game.  Rafa just didn't play well enough to string a few points in a row and get enough rhythm. 

Rafa said he just wants to delete this match from his mind and focus on his good matches.  Well, good luck with that.  You can't hide from your poor performances.  You have to look at them in cold light and make the improvements necessary, or else you will run into those problems again, the next time you meet a top player.

We've said it before, Rafa needs to work on his fitness, his return of serve, and depth of shots.  If he can't solve those, he won't be winning against top players, and he can lose to anyone who moves well on clay (like a Fognini).

The good news is there is still a little time, and he can make improvements if he works hard. But that window is closing fast.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Great post, as usual, masterclass!

Rafa losing those forehand-to-backhand rallies was really painful to watch, it used to be only Djokovic (and, to some extend Nalbandian) who could do that to him. But Rafa is indeed a step slower, what really boggles my mind is that he plays passive, short balls and he relies too much on defending. Well, he is not 26 anymore, those days are long gone!
I have a question for you - do you thing that at this point of his career Rafa would benefit from hiring a coach? I am not talking about replacing Toni but rather hiring somebody on his team with perhaps a fresh perspective on his game.

it is not a coaching issue. it is a much deeper issue:



he lost his focus, his hunger, and his relentless will to win a while back.



at the same time he is bigger than ever in many ways. he made over $41 million last year and is on track to make over $50 million this year.



he has too many outside interests and also the whole damn world wants his time and his attention.



there is the borg syndrome going on also: Rafa won too much too early in his career. and he beat them all. he has a winning record against 100% of the top 30 players. he is a bit burned out from having to fight so hard to stay at the top for nearly a decade. he dominated the red clay for a whole decade. winning on clay is not easy. it requires massive mental and physical capital.

it is a drive and hunger issue that led him to drop his fitness and physicality. he also started doing much shorter practice sessions. they were almost like token practice sessions.



he wont win if he doesn't want it bad enough.


I am just worried about injuries now at this point. he is extremely vulnerable to injury in his current state.


he was totally and utterly spent against Andy in the final. he had absolutely nothing left to give.


taking out dimitrov and berdych took too much out of him.


take a look at this article:

http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2015-05-11/19297.php




they leave out the deeper issues like lack of sufficient drive and hunger. which translate clearly to significantly diminished fitness and his usual physicality. it is Rafa's life and his career so he will do what he wants with it.


all we can do is speculate and have our discussions about what has gone wrong.



he has no fitness and physicality given his demanding style of play compared to his own standards of the old days.

he looks frail and weak. there is no depth and there is much diminished pace on his shots.


ferru and fognini are 1/2 the men Rafa is and yet they are hitting the ball significantly harder. in fact they are hitting harder than they ever have before.


I am just worried to death because his diminished state of fitness and physicality can lead to injury which will surely end his career next time.


he is going to have to work on his fitness after Wimbledon. and he will also need to get back on clay to find his ground game again.


not sure what he can do at RG. we are going to need a lot of luck.

Djokovic does not take a single day off from his work on the practice courts and  from his work on the fitness front. he is outworking them all which is what he said he had to do.

longer the match goes now the greater the probability that he will destroy you. you may not even win a game in the deciding frames against him.

that is how strong he is now.


Rafa was the only one who could have stopped him.