CAMELOT FANTASIES

I am sad and heart broken.

It did not have to end this way.


He really doesn't have the will to fight anymore. And the fact that he dropped his fitness and his physicality makes things that much harder.



Wawrinka has trouble winning matches and yet he runs Rafa off the courts in straights.


Wawrinka had not won back to back matches since Rotterdam.


Well it is what it is. Either he will wake up one day to find the fire once again to compete and fight to death or he will not.

Right now he can lose to anybody at RG.


Close match in finals at Rome would have given me some hope. But he could even get past wawrinka today.


But that terrible loss to Andy and this one to wawrinka of all the players gives me no hope.

I can't see Rafa even making the quarters at RG.



He is not suddenly going to turn into a world beater there in 8 days. He has near zero belief. and he knows why he does not have any belief.


Inactivity and lost dedication to his game and his fitness had a cost involved.


And  that cost is missed opportunities to capture a few more titles. And certainly capture his 10th RG. And i of course the cost in terms of a very dramatic drop in rankings.


That is not going to be happening now this year. We will be lucky to win 3 matches at RG.

You've said it all general hercules and Lady TT.  Great posts.

It's sad to see Rafa fail to win a single clay tournament in Europe leading up to Roland Garros.  It hasn't happened to him since he was 17, in 2004, before he won his first title in Sopot, Poland in August later the same year.

It's a survival of the fittest out there these days.

In the semis top half we have:

#1 Novak Djokovic, soon to turn 28 in 6 days, the fittest player on the planet, who when he is not playing trains for hours in Monte Carlo.
 vs.
#7 David Ferrer, who just turned 33 years old last month, known as the Wall, for running all day and getting so many shots back. He trains like the devil, 1.5 hours in the gym with a variety of strength and flexibility training in the morning, 2-3 hours practice, and 1 hour running in the afternoon.

and in the semis bottom half we have:

#2 Roger Federer, who turns 34 in 3 months, straight setted Tomas Berdych today and it wasn't as close as the score 6-3, 6-3 indicated.

vs.

#8 Stan Wawrinka, who turned 30 a couple of months ago, is known for having one of the most punishing backhands on tour, and his serve and forehand are not far behind.  He is one of the strongest men on tour.  His issue has always been consistency at the top level, but when he is peaking in his play, and he definitely did today against Rafa, he is tough to beat if you cannot find a way to keep him behind the baseline and limit his powerful strokes. 

I think Rafa's court positioning 3-5 meters behind the baseline was the key factor today and lack of fitness/strength as his forehand couldn't match Wawrinka's backhand, and even though he was fighting as well as he could, you could see he got more tired/worse as the match went on, while Wawrinka got better.  Obviously, the loss of the 1st set after being up 6-2 in the tiebreaker was a crushing blow.  But we must give credit to Wawrinka. He played lights out tennis to come back in the breaker and snatch the set.  Unfortunately, on most returns of serve Rafa was so close to the lines people on the back wall, he could probably have touched them.  This gives guys like Wawrinka too much time, and if Rafa doesn't return deep enough as happened, then it's like target practice out there for a guy like Wawrinka, making Rafa run like a madman. This is how a player can get injured, trying to extend himself too much for their fitness and play.  It's what happened in Australia in 2014 in my opinion.  So if Rafa comes out of Rome still healthy, that is at least a positive for Rafa. 

Rafa made it to the quarters in Rome, but he needs to get much better and fitter to win at Roland Garros this year. Most everyone on any forum is saying that Rafa is a different beast at Roland Garros and that 5 sets will help him.  I sorrowfully disagree with that today.  In the past, yes, it was always true.  But now?  I've seen such a decline in his fitness level, how is best of 5 going to help him, if he gets tired after 1.5 sets against the likes of Fognini and Wawrinka?  I don't know. Maybe the day off between matches will help him, but I'm grasping at straws for positives I guess.  The one thing that has to help him is winning 9 of 10 French Opens, but I think that probably only helps him if he makes a  final, and perhaps with some players who are still in awe of him.

But again, to put it in perspective, Rafa has done better than anyone would ever dream to win 9 of these.  Nobody can take those from him.  He can retire tomorrow if he wants and finish with one of the greatest careers in the history of the sport.  Anything more is really a bonus at this point, just like with Federer, who just passed 90 million dollars with today's victory in tennis earnings alone.  He might get that 100 million and 100 titles yet. Who knows?  Tennis fans around should be happy with seeing them both still playing, even if the results are not there as much or as often in the past.  One day they will hang up their racquets and it will be a sad day in tennis, but life goes on as they say, and there are others waiting to take on the challenges of the sport of tennis, but players like this cannot be replaced, only succeeded by the following generations who can only dream of lofty accomplishments such as theirs.

Respectfully,
masterclass

he pretty much had to win that match in Madrid in order to keep from dropping to #7 but in many ways this match is worse.

he had to win today in order to show that he was moving in the right direction. he needed to at least make the semis here so he could get some momentum going anyway.

I know what you are saying. of course wawrinka played well. and so did fognini in 4 straight sets against.


should fognini have any chance at all against rafa on the red clay? they are all playing well out there against rafa because rafa is letting them play that way.



as short as he drops the ball even a good college player would have a field day blasting away.

there is insufficient depth and then there is significantly less pace. that is allowing them to get to most of his shots while constantly putting him in defensive positions.

soderling once won the first game against rafa in rome and then proceeded to lose the next 12.



those at the match in madrid said that rafa was spent against andy which is what we said here. he spent too much mental and physical capital in getting rid of dimitrov and berdych and then had very little to give against andy.

they said that rafa was "utterly spent".

that is not the Rafa we have come to know.


this just makes the job that much more difficult. how on earth can you have any belief in such a depleted physical and mental state.




this is what tony said at the start of clay season: if we don't do well in monte carlo maybe we will try to do well in Barcelona.

and then he said if we fail in Barcelona then we still have Madrid and maybe we will try to get going there.


he went on to add that if they do well in Madrid and rome then maybe they can arrive in paris with some confidence.


now think about this: basically uncle tony was saying that he really did not know how and where we can win.

prior to that he had said that we will need luck this year.



and then finally he started to project more positivity by saying that Rafa's level is good enough for RG. he may have been saying that for public consumption and also to motivate and cheer up Rafa.



I am the greatest rafa fan ever lived so I have to call it like I see it and know it and understand it.  Rafa took a huge step back today. even a worse step back than in Madrid.


It will be hard to win even a 250 level tournament this year let alone a slam with his current level of fitness and physicality.



to put this in perspective, wawrinka had trouble winning back to back matches since Rotterdam. rafa had beaten him 12 times in a row on all surfaces prior to the back injury in 2013. in fact wawrinka failed to win a single set in those loses.


fognini had not won a single match in Barcelona in over 5 years.


this is not an ordinary fall for an all time great. this is a fall nearly 4 years in the making. he stopped paying attention to his clay domination.

he even installed an indoor hard court in Mallorca.



huge mistake. clay is the wellspring from which he flows. now he has no consistency compared to his own standards. he is robbed of the very thing that made him one of the greatest of all time. his ground game. that was all he had. that and his movement, his fitness, and his physicality. all that was backed by his relentless will.


now he has an inconsistent ground game. he does not trust his backhand and his forehand has lost its consistency and its potency.

his return has become a huge liability. it puts tremendous pressure on his own serve.

his court positioning is the worse it has ever been. he has little or no control of the center of the court and is constantly being forced to just lunge at the ball.




bottom line: he is not showing up prepared and they are taking advantage of him.


fundamentally it is up to Rafa. he has to decide to put an end to this slide.


we all know he can do it.


I just don't know what is keeping him from practicing 7-8 hours a day in light of this dramatic and significant decline.


vilas and muster are known for practicing even right after their matches to keep their ground game sharp and tuned up.


vilas was not happy with the way he was hitting so after one of his wins at the Italian open he went to the practice courts and worked on his game for over 2.5 hours.

and that was after a match that he had just won.


muster hit a million forehands while being strapped to a wooden bench.



rafa has to work. there is no other way.

I hear that Rafa has decided not to practice until next Wednesday.



he is making a mistake. he should be hitting the ball for at least 7 hours starting tomorrow. and at least 45 minutes should be devoted to practicing the return of serve.

he is making this nearly impossible for himself.

he can fix this with hard work, single minded focus, and dedication.


he is one of the greatest ever lived, let alone the greatest of the greatest on clay.


right now he can lose to anyone in the top 20 on clay. and to players nearly 5-7 years older than him.

only he can decide to fix the issues.


issues are simple: too much inactivity, lost of focus, loss of dedication to the sport, and reckless disregard for clay.

I would have skipped the vacation to costa rica
I would have gone to esotoril
I would have gone to munich or Casablanca
I would have skipped Miami
I would have taken in one more clay event in south America


instead he got his buddy--Monaco--to come to Mallorca to practice a little bit on clay.

now I hear he does not want to practice until Wednesday.


Rafa has to decide if he wants to win. he has to make drastic and instant changes.

it is his own call. the ball is in his court.


even the players have to wondering why he is not working hard enough to fix this. he is only the greatest physical specimen ever lived in our sport.

there are no injuries for the last 7 months. he is healthy.

he can overcome this but what is holding him back is insufficient hunger and drive. it is similar to what happened with borg except with borg it was all mental. borg did not have as many setbacks due to injuries.

I think all the injuries contributed to rafa's burn out. he doesn't feel like working hard anymore. it is too much work to stage all these comebacks time and again.

his style of play is too demanding. it requires superhuman fitness and physicality. he let some of that go and that is the biggest reason for the losses and the decline.
second reason is that he is not putting in the long hard yards on the practice courts.



uncle tony has nothing to do with this. he would be even worse without uncle tony.

Federer demolishes wawrinka in straights.

Now sets his sights on the title.

So now at least everybody knows why I have been worried for so long.
This is what I feared and it is coming to pass.


These are straight sets losses. And look at the scores.


It was 6-2 in the second set against Andy.

And then 6-2 again against wawrinka.


That is what is so alarming. He is checking out in a way right in the middle of the match. This is what tony had been saying too until he stopped saying it.


I am going to hang on to a little bit of hope and some Rafa magic at RG.


That is all I have left. I would not have allowed them to conquer my kingdom right in my prime.


But it is what it is. Maybe he can find his relentless will again.

The 6-2 score in the 2nd set masks something:

He gave up. He did not have mental resolve and mental capital to fight him.


This is not looking good.


Next year may be his last on the tour.


All these players are playing into their late 30s and even 40s today.


Rafa was the greatest physical specimen of them all.


He could easily play until he is 35 and take a shot at a couple more slams if not 3 or 4.

Right now it looks like he just doesn't want to outwork them.

It is his life and his career. he is very sharp. He knew this was going happen.


I disagree with those who say it is a stunning collapse.


This was in the making for the last 4 years. He stopped paying attention to his domination on clay and he stopped working hard on his fitness.

Of course he was young also so some of his fitness was a function of his youth.


He could just run all day.


I think the window is finally closed for 2015 anyway.


Let us see what happens in the off season.

He will come back stronger if he decides to work like hell.


Or he will sail into the sunset at the end of 2016.


The fall is very steep. It will require an immense amount of work to get out of this.

Maybe it's as simple as he doesn't want it as much anymore. It happens. As much as we, the fans, want it for him, he has to want it for himself. And, it doesn't seem like he wants it right now. If he did, he could've changed this in the short term. He chose not to do it. Since he appears to not want it, meh. Sometimes you have to hit rock bottom. That's the nature of life, and sports.