CAMELOT FANTASIES

I liked the way Bouchard celebrated her win. Any pictures on that, herc?

I liked the way Bouchard celebrated her win. Any pictures on that, herc?

I don't have any pics of her yet emma.


what an amazing athlete she is. such incredible talent and still so young.

Canadians are coming up. hopefully milos can get going as well.

Stan played unbelievable.

but again, Novak gets kind of iffy at the pressure packed moments.

It kind of reminded me of the USO where he goes on a roll and then gets cold.

That last game he played was atrocious.

Tennis draws in majors - you just never know what's going to happen with the majority of the field.  A draw can look very tough at the outset for a player only to open up if there is an upset or two along the way.  Or a draw that looks easy can be a detriment if it turns out too easy, and the player may have a difficult time raising his level at the business end of the tournament when the tough players start meeting.  From what I've seen throughout the many years is that in major,  for most top players, it is good to have at least 1 tough or scrappy battle during the tournament prior to things getting tough.

It's very interesting to look at the remain possible match ups.

Let's start with the bottom half since the semis are known. 

[7] Berdych vs [8] Wawrinka.  Overall H2H favors Wawrinka 8-5.  Recent H2H (since 2011) also favors Wawrinka 5-1, but Berdych's win came in a 1st round Davis Cup match in Switzerland on hard courts where Berdych won in 4 sets.  Many of their matches usually have one close set, usually a tiebreaker.  Wawrinka had the last straight set win back in Chennai 2011.   Berdych won their only AO meeting back in 2009, while Wawrinka won their last meeting in a major just last year at the US Open.

Of course, Wawrinka is coming off a monster win vs. Djokovic in a tough 5 sets, albeit in cool conditions for Australia.  Will he be able to take the positives from that match and use it to his benefit?  Who knows? But one would hope, yes, as he'll be overflowing with confidence.

Will he be physically and/or mentally exhausted enough to affect him adversely?  I think not.  This half has the advantage of a full two day rest till the semifinals.  Wawrinka should be able to recover unless there is an injury that I don't know about.

Berdych is coming off a good win vs. Ferrer, but Berdych was up and down in that match, starting off well, while Ferrer started poorly, then when Ferrer raised his level, Berdych couldn't match it and looked quite frustrated.  Then Ferrer's level went down and Berdych was able to regain his composure and took the match.

I think both handle the current court conditions well, but perhaps they favor Berdych just slightly.  The weather is scheduled to warm up considerably, back to 32 C.  (89 F.)  None of their previous H2H matches has ever gone to 5 sets.

Wawrinka d. Berdych in 4 sets.

How do these 2 players match up with the potential top half players?  If Nadal makes the final, then good luck to either Wawrinka or Berdych.
Wawrinka has never beaten Nadal nor taken a set off him in all 12 attempts, but interestingly, their set scores have been fairly close on hard court, especially recently.  Their 2013 WTF RR match was won by Nadal in 2 tiebreakers, both 7-5.   Berdych hasn't won against Nadal in his last 16 attempts.  Berdych's last win of his total of 3 in 20 attempts was at the 2006 indoor Madrid Open on hard court, where he infamously told the crowd to be quiet and upset Rafa.  It appears that Rafa never forgot.  He's only dropped 3 out of 38 sets played since then.

If Murray somehow manages to make the final (I don't see this happening), then either Berdych or Wawrinka will probably make it a close battle.  There is no clear advantage on hard courts.

If Federer makes it to the final,  it's hard to see Wawrinka beating him with their record, but stranger things have happened and confidence does wonders.  Berdych has a better chance, as he has played Federer pretty even since 2010 (before that it was all Federer except for their first match in 2004), but in a major final?  I doubt it.  Federer has too much experience in finals and Berdych one final appearance at Wimby in 2010.

Dimitrov? Don't see him making it either, but if he does, then he is unbeaten in 2 starts vs. Berdych, and winless in 2 starts vs. Wawrinka.

--------------------------------------

Now what about the top half?

[1] Rafael Nadal vs. [22[ Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov has never won against any of the other 3 players (0-3 vs Nadal, 0-3 vs. Murray, 0-1 vs. Federer).  Just can't see him doing it vs. Nadal in best of 5 even though he has taken sets off him.  Nadal hasn't looked overwhelming in this tournament, has a blistered hand, but has done enough to win without dropping a set.

Nadal d. Dimitrov in 4 sets.

[6] Federer vs. [4] Murray - Murray is at a big disadvantage this year with zero tour level play vs top 20 players since the US Open.  If Federer can play anywhere close to his level vs. Tsonga then he is likely to win.  Of course if he plays at 2013 level like Robredo at the US Open, he can lose making a hundred errors.  I don't expect the latter to happen.  He looks more consistent and in good form throughout the tournament with few lapses.  Like Nadal,  he hasn't dropped a set yet.  His serve has looked very good, and has only been broken 1 time in the tournament, but he hasn't faced a player with the defense of a Murray or Nadal, so I don't expect him to be quite so overpowering on serve.  His backhand has looked pretty good, especially against Tsonga.  And he has been aggressive, going to net when he spots the opportunity, without being overly aggressive.

Unless error prone Federer shows up, I think this is going to be straight forward win for Federer defeating Murray in 3 sets.  4 if Murray plays very well for a set and Federer is not playing so well.  Federer lost his first match in a major to an in form solid Murray at last year's AO in a tough 5 sets, after a tough 5 sets with Tsonga, and clearly looked out of gas.  I don't know how he even made it to the 5th set. 

Federer or Murray vs. Nadal.  Again, even if Murray beats Federer, I don't think Murray's match ready for Nadal.  Again, I think that would be a 3 set win for Nadal, 4 maybe.
Federer?  Federer has overall only won at a rate of 1 in 3 matches vs. Nadal, but that includes a large amount on clay courts.  Their hard court record is closer.  Rain and cooler weather is scheduled for Friday's matches - 80% chance.  If it goes indoors, then one thinks this would favor an in-form Federer.
Can't call this one yet.  The lighter balls and perhaps somewhat quicker courts should favor him as well.  It mostly depends on Federer's mindset on the day.  When he's on, he can beat anyone including Nadal, but those moments have happened fewer and fewer times as the years have gone by.  We know Rafa has hardly any blips. I'll reevaluate on match day.

This is how I see it, but this is tennis, anything can happen on any given day.   

Respectfully,
masterclass

Which one, thetruth?

Respectfully,
masterclass

Which one, thetruth?

Respectfully,
masterclass

You can apply it to any of your posts.

They are so well written, informative, and unbiased.

It's a pleasure to read your posts.

Thank you very much for your kind words, thetruth!  I asked the question, because you said, "Great post Emma", so I was wondering which one of her posts you thought was great.  But I guess you meant mine.  

I have a blog on the Tennis Frontier site if you are interested.  I'm probably going to put much of this last analysis in a new blog entry once the quarter-finals are played tomorrow.   My dream is to write articles for a major tennis site, like espn, or tennis.com and make some money at what I do for free now.
But who knows, maybe Camelot or Tennis Frontier will become the next major tennis site - there are many knowledgeable and fine people here as well!

Thanks again,
masterclass

general masterclass once we have 300+ people here, I can get us some advertising revenue.

we will divide that revenue among the admin members.


all we need is 300 members with about 20 of them posting on somewhat regular basis.


I can actually see that happening in about 2 years time. we will have learned a little bit along the way and accordingly, the site will become a little more attractive.

we are still learning and taking baby steps along the way.


I can see a fairly solid and self sustaining community here in time.

the key is as follows:

1. kind hearted people
2. engaging content
3. cool features


a solid community will capture the attention and imagination of a lot of people around the internet.