CAMELOT FANTASIES

Ok.  So now for the 2nd Round - or Round of 64  if you prefer.

Here is the list of matches, and those I see as likely or possible upsets.  Make your own predictions without fear, nothing is certain here.

Top Half
(1) Rafael nadal vs Dominic Thiem - This Thiem can play very well and be a danger, or be nervous and be gone. Rafa must and probably will be ready.

Axel Michon vs (19) Kevin Anderson

(32)Andreas Seppi vs Juan Monaco - Monaco is a good clay courter when playing well, and if Seppi is off, then this upset can happen. But Seppi looked good against Giraldo, and got it done quickly, so I doubt this happens.

Simone Bolelli vs (5) David Ferrer 

Donald Young vs (26) Feliciano Lopez

(23) Gael Monfils vs Jan Lennard Atruff  - Monfils is almost always a possible upset candidate, but I think he'll move on here.

Thomaz Bellucci vs (14) Fabio Fognini

(12) Richard Gasquet vs Carlos Berlocq - I think this can happen. Berlocq took down a fair Hewitt in 4. and Gasquet is just returning from injury, only having to put away a poor Tomic.  Berlocq to win in my upset pick of the day.

Pablo Cuevas vs (24) Fernando Verdasco - Curiously, Cuevas won their only previous match, but in 2008. A possibility, but not likely

(28) Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Denis Istomin - They split their only 2 previous clay matches this year. Not quite likely, but certainly very possible

Marinko Matosevic vs (7) Andy Murray

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Bottom Half

(6) Tomas Berdych vs Alexander Nedovyeseov

Benoit Paire vs (27) Roberto bautista agut

(17) Tommy Robredo vs Kenny De Schepper - The tall De Shepper will have to overpower Robredo to have a possibility of an upset.

Mikhail Kukushkin vs (10) John Isner - Kukushkin is not a bad player, so John mustn't slip up here.

(15) Mikhail Youzhny vs Radek Stepanek

Facundo Bagnis vs (18) Ernests Gulbis - Bagnis just had a monster of a match to beat Benneteau. If he can recover, he might have his chances against Gulbis, if Gulbis implodes, otherwise, no.

(31) Dmitry Tursunov vs Sam Querrey - 2-2 H2h all on hard. Should be a close match, Tursunov is a slightly better clutch player and should take it, but Querrey is certainly a possibility here.

Diego Schwartzman vs (4) Roger Federer - Diminutive 21 year old, all of 140 lbs, first time playing Roger.  Time for school lessons.

( Milos Raonic vs Jiri Veseley

Alejandro Gonzalez vs (29) Gilles Simon

(20) Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Marcel Granollers - If Marcel can keep it close, he is a threat if the match goes longer.

(13) Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Jurgen Melzer - When Melzer is on, he can beat good players.  Jo has to watch himself here.

Jarko Nieminen vs (22) Jerzy Janowicz - Janowicz has not been good lately, just won his first match in the last 9. Nieminen is a steady journeyman.  If Jerzy can't play calmly and smart, he won't win.

(25) Marin Cilic vs Tobias Kamke

Jeremey Chardy vs (2) Novak Djokovic - Nole has never dropped a set in 8 matches with Chardy.  Don't see that changing here, unless Novak is extremely generous.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Well as it turned out Lady TT, there were not too many upsets in the round of 64 or round 2, and everyone in the top 10 survived.

Two in the bottom half, Youhzny and Dolgopolov, and a minor one in the top half, Feli Lopez, succumbed to Donald Young, believe it or not.

So now we are in the Round of 32 players.  It's starts getting tricky from now on for many of the top players, except for where the top half has been decimated of seeds.  My upset picks are underline and in italics.  I picked 1 upset from each quarter, though more are possible.

Top Half
Nadal QF

#1 seed Rafael Nadal should enjoy a clear run to the Quarter finals with no seeds left in that path. He plays #65 ranked Leonardo Mayer next, and if successful it gets even easier as he will play either #75 ranked Jack Sock (USA) or #83 ranked Dusan Layovic from Serbia.  So I can't see any upsets there.

In the other part of the quarter, "Dr." Ivo Karlovic takes on #19 seed, Kevin Anderson in a match-up of big servers. Usually Anderson might be favored, but Karlovic is playing very well this tournament, and I'm going to take him in a mild upset.

Then it's #32 Andreas Seppi, who has had a good run so far, facing #5 David Ferrer. I think this is where Seppi's fortune stops. David is too quick and relentless for Seppi.
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Murray QF

1/4 of the seeds are gone in this quarter, but still some quality players remain

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (GGL) has had a good tournament as expected and will face surprise 3rd round opponent in Donald Young. I think GGL will be too tough on clay for Donald, but we will see.

Next in what promises to be a very interesting match, #23 seed and popular Frenchman Gail Monfils will face #14 seed and popular Italian Fabio Fognini. Their play can be sublime or clown-like, within a single match, and you never know what's going to happen in a match with these players. Fognini holds a 2-1 edge on clay, 3-2 overall.  The only time they played at Roland Garros, Fognini came from 2 sets down in a wild affair to win 9-7 in the decider.  I'm not going to pick an upset here, but it could obviously happen. These players are evenly matched in more ways than one.

On the other side of Murray's quarter, another match with no clear favorite is #12 seed Richard Gasquet facing #24 Fernando Verdasco. Again, as most matches, it depends what these players bring on the day.  Historically, Gasquet had an early H2H advantage, but Verdasco now edges it, 7-6.  After Gasquet had a 3-0 lead on clay, Verdasco has taken the last 3 of 4 on clay. They've never met in a major.  Gasquet has had an easier time this tournament, with Verdasco forced to 5 sets in his last match. I'm going to go with the fresher player, Gasquet here, but it could easily be the other way around if Verdasco recovers well.

Finally, in what promises to be the most anticipated match of the top half in the round of 32,#7 seed 2 time major winner Andy Murray, OBE, plays the talented German,  #28 seed Philipp Kohlschreiber. In their only match, which was played on the 2010 Monte Carlo clay, Kohlschreiber dismissed Murray 6-2, 6-1.  That's 4 years ago and a lot of water under the bridge since.  Philipp has played well this tournament, his serve has been good, broken only 3 times in the two matches, and he his hitting the ball well.  Andy looked much better in his second round with Matosevic, and his served improved.  He still is not getting enough 1st serves in, which exposes his much weaker second serve.  He has to put better than 60% first serves in to have a chance against Kohlschreiber, and so far he is 51% and 57%.

I'm going to have to pick Kohlschreiber as the "upset" winner here.  He plays well on both of the natural surfaces when he is healthy, 3 of his titles have come on clay, and I don't think he'll be intimidated by Murray and is a very good middle round player.  Murray has still yet to win a title on clay, but has generally improved his play on clay since their only match, so I think it will be closer than their previous match indicates, but I think Kohlschreiber matches up well with Murray, will overcome Murray's great defense, and will take it.

 For Murray, I think he might just be about ready to be in good shape for the grass season.  I had been concerned about his progress this season, recovering from his back surgery, but he looks to be getting there at last. I still think he needs a good win against a top 10 player to get his full confidence back, but I doubt that happens here at Roland Garros.
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Bottom Half
Federer QF

#6 seed Tomas Berdych is up against a good clay court player in #27 seed Roberto Bautista-Agut (RBA).  RBA has looked solid so far in his two wins over Lorenzi and Benoit Paire.  Berdych has not been as solid dropping a set to Nedovyesov.  RBA is good enough on clay to upset Berdych if Tomas slips up, so this is one to watch.

#17 seed Spaniard Tommy Robredo faces #10 seed American John Isner.  Isner has won their only match that was on hard court four years ago. Isner had a fairly tough one last out beating Kukushkin in 4 sets with 3 tiebreakers while Robredo sailed through his earlier rounds.  If Isner has recovered from that, I pick him to win, but Robredo could certainly score the minor upset here, and I pick him if the match goes to 5.

I think 35 year old Radek Stepanek has gone as far as he could here, as he now faces #18 seed Ernests Gulbis.  Gulbis in 3.

#31 seed Dmitry Tursunov faces #4 seed Roger Federer.  Federer leads the H2H 4-0, but they've never played on clay and Tursunov gave Federer a close battle in their last match this year at Indian Wells, losing in 2 tiebreakers.  Federer might drop a set here, but I believe he takes it.
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Djokovic QF

I think this quarter promises to have some interesting matches.

#8 seed Milos Raonic plays #29 seed Gilles Simon, but Simon looks to be playing better than that seeding.  Raonic beat Simon on the Estoril clay in 2011 in 3 sets in their only meeting to date.  Possible upset here. I think Ceee-mon is looking more hungry than usual. He needs to be fed.

#39 ranked Marcel Granollers, fresh off his upset of #20 Alex Dolgopolov in 5 sets, plays # 59 ranked Martin Klizan, who also needed 5 sets against Haase. I think Klizan might take it in this battle of the unseeded players, but who knows?

#13 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will take on young #22 seed Jerzy Janowicz.  Janowicz had been on a downward spiral prior to Roland Garros, dropping 9 straight matches, but has shown signs of life here and played quite well in his last match in straight sets vs. Nieminen. Tsonga also played well in his last match, straight sets against Melzer.  Jerzy has won their only match, last year in straight sets on clay in Rome if you recall.  I think this will be a tough match and won't be surprised to see it go to 5 sets if both players are at a good level.  I have to give the edge to Tsonga based on his experience and the home crowd, but would not be surprised to see the Pole win it.

Finally we come down to #2 seed Novak Djokovic against #25 seed Marin Cilic.  It seems hardly in doubt as Nole has dropped only 2 sets in 8 meetings, which were all on hard court.  On clay today, Novak in 3.

Respectfully,
masterclass

yep, no upsets on the men's side in the bottom half.  Lady TT, you've got the woman's side going to I see, good work... Thought for sure Simon was going to do it when he went up 2 sets to 1. Maybe he thought the same and that was the problem. Give credit to Milos for hanging in and turning it around.  Bautista-Agut was a stab in the dark searching for another upset. He got one set, but was outplayed for the most part by a fairly solid Berdych.

Let's see what happens to the top half tomorrow.  Hey, when you pick upsets, you don't really expect them to win, you just think the potential is there, and sometimes some people pick them for the "jinx" effect.

Respectfully,
masterclass

[13] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) vs. [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB)
 [18] Ernests Gulbis (LAT) vs. [4] Roger Federer (SUI)
 [6] Tomas Berdych (CZE) vs. [10] John Isner (USA)
 [8] Milos Raonic (CAN) vs. Marcel Granollers (ESP)

At this stage, any player can be upset.

I'm going to go out on a limb and give Gulbis the nod.  Federer has looked good on serve, but his ground game has not been so good. If Federer's serve falters due to pressure on his ground game, then Gulbis has a shot.  But he has to do well and not suffer any of his infamous implosions, so this is certainly not a big chance, but it's there. Let's see how interested Federer is in going further at Roland Garros, which has been said not to be a priority, or packing his grass bags for Halle and Wimbledon.

I'd like to see Tsonga overcome the pressure at his home slam and get the win over Djokovic after that sad loss he had a couple of years ago to him, when he really should have won it.   But I don't know. Tsonga has only just recently started playing much better.  I'm not sure he can contend with Novak over 5 sets.  I think his biggest chance is to blitz Nole in 3 sets. The longer it goes, the worse for Tsonga.

Raonic keeps exceeding my expectations.  Granollers has been playing well. He has a shot on clay. 

Berdych hasn't lost to Isner on clay in their two meetings on the surface, and I don't think John's high bouncing second serve will bother the tall Czech player.  I think Isner's best chance is to use his big wing span and go for the net. But he just doesn't do it enough to make me confident that he can succeed, and one can never be sure about Isner's fitness, especially as the rounds wear on in a major.  But you never know.  If Isner gets hot on serve, he can be damn difficult to break, and if you can't break, you can't win.  So I still have to give him a chance for a minor upset.

Respectfully,
masterclass