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Author Topic: Masterclass 2014 - 2015 Upset Picks of the Day (2015 US Open - Day 5)  (Read 5081 times)

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This thread is for anyone to express their upset picks of the day.  It's always possible that what a few people or even most people consider an upset might not be considered so by someone else.  But don't worry about it.  If you consider it an upset, then it's fine to propose it.  Most of us recognize an obvious upset when we see one. 

This thread will be on going.  Just make sure the tournament is mentioned if it hasn't been and the match particulars.  You may or may not give your reasons. It's up to you.  :) 

If you end up being wrong, don't let it deter you.  After all, it's not expected that the player one picks to make the upset is likely to win.

Maybe for the big tournaments we will have a contest and see who is the best at predicting upsets!

If there is any dispute about whether someone is an upset or not, a betting site will be used  to determine the odds.  If the separation is more than a differential of one, then it will be considered.    For example,  if Djokovic is at 2-1, and Nadal is 3-1, it is not good enough. But if Nadal is 7-2, than that is enough to call it an official upset pick.  :)

Have fun!

Respectfully,
masterclass






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Re: Masterclass Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2014, 11:32:30 am »
I'll start things off as an example.

2014 Indian Wells - BNP Paribas Open

QF round.

Unseeded Julien Benneteau to upset [2] Novak Djokovic!   

H2H -  Djokovic, 5-1,  Only loss  in straight sets at 2006 Indian Wells.

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masterclass

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2014, 12:19:07 pm »
Ah very naughty. I know both you and herc want Nole to lose so that Federer can get this title and haha at that, but I can't possibly root or call for an upset for my own player. At the same time I can't say there won't be an upset since anything is possible as we've seen at the AO final. Besides, Nole has been pushed as well.

I won't mind participating though in the future but I will have to keep a very fair mind otherwise I won't feel good about it. It was easy to pick Dolgo over Raonic but not because I hate Raonic but because the circumstances were leaning towards it. If it's all that then I am in.

In my mind, I did pick Dolgo to upset Nadal but only because Nadal wasn't playing well and Dolgo was looking rather sharp and determined.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2014, 12:44:45 pm »
Hmm, one should be careful of judging another person's motivations in their picks.  I could very well be jinxing Benneteau, so that Djokovic will make it to the semifinal, etc.  ;)  If that were the case, I wouldn't want to confirm that though for obvious reasons.  Of course, many people don't believe in jinxes, or that sort of stuff. :)   

And sure, if one seriously feels a favored player is ripe for an upset, for whatever reason, it is the ideal time to call it, no?
I've made far more money than I've lost doing just that.  But you have to really know just when to do it, and not overdo.  Betting on a favorite is easy, but doesn't usually get you quite as much return.

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masterclass
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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2014, 12:51:04 pm »
But that's all there is. I have no idea if you are trying to jinx Benneteau or not. But given that you are a very big Federer fan it's easy to assume that you'd want Nole to go out. Because otherwise you would come across as too or over confident in your picks/upsets etc. So highly unlikely that you would. 

And if you don't believe in jinxes and I don't think you do, then it or the intention remains the same, innit.


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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2014, 01:13:57 pm »
Not at all.  If I were a big Federer fan...I'd want Djokovic to make it to the final and get destroyed by Federer. 

But really I'm a fan of great tennis, as General Hercules can tell you.  Historically, Djokovic-Federer matches produce some pretty good tennis matches.  More so than Federer-Nadal, or Murray-Djokovic for example.  So in that case, I would hope that Djokovic makes it through and gets to play Federer and they both play well, produce some great tennis, and the best player on the day wins. 

I'm not one of those silly fans that wants the better players to lose so that my player can more easily win.  What kind of challenge is that?  It is not the way of the warrior.   And that is how I look at men's tennis.  The best play with the heart and mentality of a courageous warrior when they are confident.  When they are not confident, it shows.  For example, Rafael Nadal is a big fighter, maybe the biggest. But when I see him drop back to the fence to return for no reason, I just cringe.  He is sending a message to the server... I am not confident today.  I'll play back here and get more time to deal with the shot.  He didn't win the hard court events last year doing that.  Why? Because he was super confident in his game.

Most of the top players can play great tennis more often by definition.  That said, there are certain match-ups where a player does not allow the other to play their best tennis for whatever reason.  Many lower ranked players are also capable of playing some good or even great tennis.  The problem is that they don't often have the belief when they run into a top player, and they implode at the critical moments.  But it's a game played by two players, and many times a player can force a player to play worse than he would against another player.

Now there are times, when a player is not in form, not on his game at all, and it that situation, I think he might be better off losing to some other player than his biggest competitors, for psychological reasons, and get out of the tournament and work on their game.  Tennis is not only about playing matches. To be at one's best, one has to constantly work on their game, and especially when one is not in form.  Playing matches when not in form or playing with injury is a recipe for destroying confidence and it leads to a vicious cycle of losing to players to whom you shouldn't lose.  Hard practice, focusing on the deficiencies and strengths in your game leads to better form.  Winning matches leads to better confidence.
Sometimes it can be difficult to find the right balance, as one does need match play as well.  I think Federer was in this position much of last year. I think Murray is in this position this year.  Djokovic is also not on his game.  I think Nadal is risking his game, and his confidence is lower.  That's why I believe he shouldn't play in Miami, get 100% healthy, and get on the clay and work on his game until Monte Carlo starts.

Ok, enough, said.... :)

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masterclass
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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2014, 02:55:43 pm »
Okay, fair enough. This does not answer the question though - what are you basing your recent upset on? What makes you think Benneteau will upset Nole? If it's just an example then never mind but otherwise I am not seeing any reason as to why Benneteau would upset Nole. Trying to jinx Benneteau would be just another silly attempt as well so I don't see you doing that. Typically upsets happen when there's a very good chance and we can detect those ahead of time - such as form, confidence, matchup etc. So I don't see your angle there.

Anyway, I do agree with your assessments on Nadal. He plays bad when he lacks confidence. He was very confident last year as he started out really fresh when the other top players looked pretty jaded after a long season. Since then Nadal has won a lot and played a lot so he too now is not feeling as fresh or not feeling mentally as confident as last year. So it's understood.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2014, 03:02:32 pm »
Of course you might want to track back Benneteau's path where he had seemingly upset Tsogna but Tsonga is a no show for a while and also, Nole and Tsonga aren't in the same league. I don't underestimate Benneteau and anyone can pull an upset on any given day as we've seen quite a few at last year's Wimbledon, but it is also not as common. In any case, there's not much credit in that.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2014, 04:03:22 pm »
I think Benneteau is a quiet achiever and it would be good if he can cause an upset tonight. Highly unlikely again Djokovic but you never know, tennis is a game where the tables can change at any time.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2014, 07:31:10 pm »
I think Benneteau is a quiet achiever and it would be good if he can cause an upset tonight. Highly unlikely again Djokovic but you never know, tennis is a game where the tables can change at any time.

welcome to Camelot Yin Nooy.


we are very glad you are here. please make yourself at home and post anywhere you wish or please.


Julian can put in a solid performance once in a while. he must be 32-33 by now but still plays and competes at a pretty high level.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2014, 11:50:14 am »
I think Benneteau is a quiet achiever and it would be good if he can cause an upset tonight. Highly unlikely again Djokovic but you never know, tennis is a game where the tables can change at any time.

I don't know if Benneteau is a quiet achiever but yes, he's capable of pulling an upset like a lot of the other dangerous players out there, but whether he'll be able to finish it or not is another matter. As you can see after the match, it wasn't much of a contest. He needed to catch Nole off guard as Nole's a bit too informed at this point about Benneteau.

BTW, welcome to the forum Yin Nooy. Please continue to post away and feel at home. We are all just giving our informed or educated opinions here and nothing more. Nothing is written in stone as they say so yes, anything is possible.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2014, 07:21:30 pm »
This thread is for anyone to express their upset picks of the day.  It's always possible that what a few people or even most people consider an upset might not be considered so by someone else.  But don't worry about it.  If you consider it an upset, then it's fine to propose it.  Most of us recognize an obvious upset when we see one. 

This thread will be on going.  Just make sure the tournament is mentioned if it hasn't been and the match particulars.  You may or may not give your reasons. It's up to you.  :) 

If you end up being wrong, don't let it deter you.  After all, it's not expected that the player one picks to make the upset is likely to win.

Maybe for the big tournaments we will have a contest and see who is the best at predicting upsets!

If there is any dispute about whether someone is an upset or not, a betting site will be used  to determine the odds.  If the separation is more than a differential of one, then it will be considered.    For example,  if Djokovic is at 2-1, and Nadal is 3-1, it is not good enough. But if Nadal is 7-2, than that is enough to call it an official upset pick.  :)

Have fun!

Respectfully,
masterclass

What a great idea. I'm glad you didn't start this with IW, because I must have been under a fog during that one. I got almost all of my matches wrong >:(.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2014, 07:33:51 pm »
Not at all.  If I were a big Federer fan...I'd want Djokovic to make it to the final and get destroyed by Federer. 

But really I'm a fan of great tennis, as General Hercules can tell you.  Historically, Djokovic-Federer matches produce some pretty good tennis matches.  More so than Federer-Nadal, or Murray-Djokovic for example.  So in that case, I would hope that Djokovic makes it through and gets to play Federer and they both play well, produce some great tennis, and the best player on the day wins. 

I'm not one of those silly fans that wants the better players to lose so that my player can more easily win.   What kind of challenge is that? It is not the way of the warrior.    And that is how I look at men's tennis.  The best play with the heart and mentality of a courageous warrior when they are confident.  When they are not confident, it shows.  For example, Rafael Nadal is a big fighter, maybe the biggest. But when I see him drop back to the fence to return for no reason, I just cringe.  He is sending a message to the server... I am not confident today.  I'll play back here and get more time to deal with the shot.  He didn't win the hard court events last year doing that.  Why? Because he was super confident in his game.

Most of the top players can play great tennis more often by definition.  That said, there are certain match-ups where a player does not allow the other to play their best tennis for whatever reason.  Many lower ranked players are also capable of playing some good or even great tennis.  The problem is that they don't often have the belief when they run into a top player, and they implode at the critical moments.   But it's a game played by two players, and many times a player can force a player to play worse than he would against another player.

Now there are times, when a player is not in form, not on his game at all, and it that situation, I think he might be better off losing to some other player than his biggest competitors, for psychological reasons, and get out of the tournament and work on their game.   Tennis is not only about playing matches. To be at one's best, one has to constantly work on their game, and especially when one is not in form.  Playing matches when not in form or playing with injury is a recipe for destroying confidence and it leads to a vicious cycle of losing to players to whom you shouldn't lose.  Hard practice, focusing on the deficiencies and strengths in your game leads to better form.  Winning matches leads to better confidence.
Sometimes it can be difficult to find the right balance, as one does need match play as well. I think Federer was in this position much of last year. I think Murray is in this position this year.  Djokovic is also not on his game.  I think Nadal is risking his game, and his confidence is lower.  That's why I believe he shouldn't play in Miami, get 100% healthy, and get on the clay and work on his game until Monte Carlo starts.

Ok, enough, said.... :)

Respectfully,
masterclass

Great post. I feel the same way. Although, at this point, I think it might not hurt Nadal to play Miami since he has zero points there from last year and could pick up more points without jeopardizing too much.

I like great tennis too and try not to focus too much on the players. Tennis is a game of losses as well as wins. So, I take the bad with the good.

Although I hated to see Nadal lose, he wasn't playing well enough to win, so that's that. I'm glad he went to Alex than against his main rivals, that would've created more psychological damage as you said. So, in the end the loss wasn't too bad in my opinion, because life must be meted out to all.

 I hope that this tournament gives Dolgopolov the confidence to keep improving. He's great to watch.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2014, 09:07:27 am »
Agreed, Lady TT.  Alexandr Dolgopolov is a joy to watch when he is in full flow.  He just flies around the court.  Unfortunately it is taxing on him and his condition,  Gilbert's Syndrome, which affects the liver, blood and often causes exhaustion.  His condition worsens when he has to have extensive travel over long distances.  If he were able to have more stamina, he could be very dangerous.  He is almost forced to gamble a lot and risk, and therefore he usually has a lot of errors.  When he can cut those down a bit, and his winner/ue ration improves we see he can win against top quality players.

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masterclass
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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2014, 08:50:06 am »
Agreed, Lady TT.  Alexandr Dolgopolov is a joy to watch when he is in full flow.  He just flies around the court.  Unfortunately it is taxing on him and his condition,  Gilbert's Syndrome, which affects the liver, blood and often causes exhaustion.  His condition worsens when he has to have extensive travel over long distances.  If he were able to have more stamina, he could be very dangerous.  He is almost forced to gamble a lot and risk, and therefore he usually has a lot of errors.  When he can cut those down a bit, and his winner/ue ration improves we see he can win against top quality players.

Respectfully,
masterclass

It's weird how some players are gifted with such talent, but also given an Achilles Heel. Pete with Thessalonica (I don't remember the name of it), Nadal with a congenital bone defect, and now Alexander with his condition. It's sad, because the tennis would be otherworldly coming from these players.

But yeah, I like Dolgo's style a lot. He's amazing. His reflexes are lightning fast and his movement extraordinary. I am adding him to my list of favorite players and moving him right behind Rafa. Love, love, love watching The Dog!

 

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