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Author Topic: Masterclass 2014 - 2015 Upset Picks of the Day (2015 US Open - Day 5)  (Read 5042 times)

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  • CAMELOT FANTASY
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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #30 on: March 25, 2014, 11:28:27 pm »


Here today's Men's Singles Round 16 lineup:

Stadium Start 11:00 am

[16] Tommy Robredo (ESP) v [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB)

Not Before 1:00 pm

[6] Andy Murray (GBR) v [11] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)

[5] Roger Federer (SUI) v [9] Richard Gasquet (FRA)

Not Before 9:00 pm

[1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) v [14] Fabio Fognini (ITA)

Grandstand Start 11:00 am

[20] Kei Nishikori (JPN) v [4] David Ferrer (ESP)

Not Before 12:30 pm

[3] Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) v [22] Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR)

[12] Milos Raonic (CAN) v [LL] Benjamin Becker (GER)

[10] John Isner (USA) v [7] Tomas Berdych (CZE)


Even though Nole hasn't played I don't see Tommy winning. He has the heart, but not enough weapons to trouble Nole.

Tsonga is too up and down and I really don't remember him having a big win in a long time. Plus, he's too streaky and makes bad decisions, at the wrong time, on court. Andy should take it.

Federer should beat Richard the Faint-Hearted. Not enough belief in Richard and even if he won he'd go out to the next guy, so would only serve as a spoiler.

Rafa should take Fognini out because it's hard to see Fog staying consistent through an entire match against a determined Rafa.

Kei should take out Ferrer, due to confidence, and Ferrer has looked lackluster lately.

Going with Alexander for the upset, even though he might be physically challenged. Wawrinka hasn't impressed me as much as he has the world. He still has trouble maintaining consistency during a match.

Raonic should take care of Becker for obvious reasons.

And Berdych I want to take out Isner.

Well it looks like I'm back on my game. Woot woot.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #31 on: March 26, 2014, 05:09:42 am »
It was a loaded Tuesday in Miami with 13 of the top 16 seeds competing in the round of 16.

The big upsets came from two players outside the top 16, who are obviously playing better than their ranking/seeding. 

As Camelot's own General Hercules first predicted, #22 Alexandr Dolgopolov played very well to oust the reigning Australian Open champion, #3 Stan Wawrinka in 3 sets.  He was able to overcome any physical difficulties he had during the previous match and played at a high level when he needed it, while Stan still looks slightly undercooked from lack of recent match play, and perhaps still a bit hung over from his first major title.

Meanwhile, also as Camelot's Lady TT predicted, #20 Kei Nishikori was able to fight past #4 David Ferrer in a very closely contested match at the end.  Either of them could have won it in a ultra-close tiebreaker where Kei fought off no less than 4 match points from Ferrer to finally snatch the tiebreaker 11-9 and the match.  In my opinion, Kei was quite fatigued in the second set, and part of the 3rd, and he wisely saved energy in the last 3 or 4 Ferrer service games where he didn't win a point.  In the latter stages of the tiebreaker, it was Ferrer who was looking the more tired, and whether from disappointment over not being able to convert his match points, or exhaustion, or a combination of both, looked on his last legs and Nishikori was able to outlast "The Wall", which is a difficult feat.

The rest of the matches were pretty true to form, all in straight sets, with no winner losing more than 8 games (Djokovic, Berdych won in identical 6-3, 7-5 scorelines), and the fastest match of the day from Roger Federer winning 6-1, 6-2 over Gasquet in just 49 minutes.

As anyone can plainly see, come to Camelot to get the most informed posters' opinions on the planet.  Obviously, nobody can predict with 100% certainty, but more often than not, we have people that are spot on with their brave predictions.

Quarter finals to come.  General Hercules will have the schedule up soon for the next round of upset predictions.

Respectfully,
masterclass
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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #32 on: March 26, 2014, 07:54:48 am »
great post general masterclass. now the upsets will get a little harder to call general.

that said, I do believe that Andy will derail Nole today in 3 sets. he has to be armed with a renewed motivation now. back surgery set him back and now lendl decided to walk away.

this should have the effect of giving him some challenges that he can relish. Andy will try to mix it up as usual but there is no question that he has to serve big today.

this will keep the pressure on nole's side of the net.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #33 on: March 26, 2014, 05:43:48 pm »
well so much for that upset prediction general. I got it wrong.

nole was just too tough today. congrats to nole and his fans.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #34 on: March 26, 2014, 11:31:15 pm »
huge upset today in Miami.

did not see that one coming.

congrats to nishikori and his fans.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #35 on: March 27, 2014, 02:29:38 am »
Kei is pretty serious about his career. He hired Chang, and now he's channeling his coach.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #36 on: March 28, 2014, 09:53:45 am »
who are you picking today folks?


any possibility of an upset at all?

nole looks the strongest of them all at the moment. nishikori has to play a match of his life today.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #37 on: March 28, 2014, 12:34:39 pm »
I hope not but it won't surprise me in the least if the Final turns out to be Nishikori - Berdych!

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #38 on: March 28, 2014, 12:51:01 pm »
Uh-oh, it looks like Nishikori just withdrew from the SF. Not good!

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #39 on: March 28, 2014, 02:06:48 pm »
Confirmed by ATP, General Tee, thanks.  Nishikori withdrew due to left groin strain injury.  Commiserations to him and his fans.
It shows how much he had to extend himself to beat two top 5 players in a row. The sport can be brutal even for the fittest.

Congratulations to Djokovic and his fans.  He has reached the final playing only 3 matches and 6 sets - Chardy, Robredo, and Murray.

We'll find out if it is better to be rested and fresher, or battle hardened. 
I'm going to guess the former in the case of the second of back to back Masters, but we'll see.

If Nadal gets past Berdych (I know most think it's a given, considering Nadal hasn't lost in 16 matches since the 2006 Madrid insult),  it might be another big battle on slow hard court.  Just think if Masters finals were still best of 5.  I think Djokovic will be a tough man to beat in best of 3 in Miami. 

Respectfully,
masterclass



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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #40 on: March 28, 2014, 02:24:14 pm »
I see 3-4 issues that seem to tilt the final slightly in nole's favor:


1. he is healthy and fit. and now he will be well rested as well.

2. these are the hard courts and this is a best of 3 sets final. nole has the edge in such formats.

3. nole is serving and returning better than Rafa. that is what gives nole the competitive edge on the hard courts. on the average, the guy is just a beast when returning and serving on the hard courts.

4. nole has had no back issues like Rafa has. Rafa was not able to even serve for 10 days after Rio.

5. Rafa wont give his backhand a chance to get in the groove. he keeps running around it when returning serve and also in rallies.


that costs him the control of the center of the court. that forces him to account for more space.


so we will just have to see if he can make some adjustments in the final.  I do expect Rafa to get by Berdych today.

all that being said, I have to support my player as much as possible. I will say Rafa in 3 in the final provided he makes the adjustments I have outlined.

and the biggest key for Rafa: he has to return well. and in addition, he has to have some rhythm with his backhand.



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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #41 on: March 28, 2014, 02:35:56 pm »
I have to admit I'm worried about Rafa general.  Another deep run on slow hard court and possible battle with Djokovic right before the clay season.  Is it worth it for Rafa to go all out if it jeopardizes the real prize - RG?  I know that's his character, and this is why I have reservations.  I've seen it happen too many times before.  Miami is relatively small potatoes compared to a healthy clay season and a 14th major at Roland Garros.  Losing to Berdych might be a blessing in disguise, as much as that might irk him in the short term. 

Respectfully,
masterclass
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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #42 on: March 28, 2014, 02:44:52 pm »
that is a great point general.

you know nole is going to stretch the court tomorrow.

Rafa has to play tonight and then come right back and play tomorrow afternoon.

well one has to hope for the best at this point. we want all these players 100% for the rest of the year.

as it is we have lost del potro for the rest of the year.

Rafa is in the middle of the stretch run or home stretch as they call it. he cannot afford another injury now. next back injury could compromise his career and his momentum that he worked so hard to gather in 2013.

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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #43 on: March 28, 2014, 03:10:39 pm »
Exactly general.  Just look at poor Kei Nishikori.  He made a huge effort to beat Ferrer, and then had to come back a day later to beat Federer, and now he's out for I don't know how long.  Though Kei has shown increases in strength and fitness this year, he has been prone to injury with his high octane game.  I wish him well in his recovery.

These guys are not machines. It is not a team sport.  They are only one man.  There is nobody to replace them on the bench. If they get hurt, that's it. They are on the sidelines, fishing, playing poker, whatever, and watching the rest of the tennis world go by.  Though there can be freak accidents, players at this level usually get hurt when they really have had to extend themselves to the fullest, not when they are playing easier matches.  For the players who have a lot of matches in them, each injury might be the last. 

Respectfully,
masterclass
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Re: Masterclass 2014 Upset Picks of the Day
« Reply #44 on: March 28, 2014, 05:15:18 pm »
This is a hard one. I don't think a loss to Berdych would be the end of the world. And, Berdych is playing well and with more belief. But, at the same time I don't think Nadal has extended himself much either. He went out early in IW and his first three matches here were basically walkovers.

I also don't think the Raonic match is an indicator of anything. Rafa played a nervous first set, but thereafter pretty much had his way with him. I know the conditions were bad, but Raonic actually showed me very little. He has his serve, but his groundies, unless he's going for an outright winner look pretty weak, to me.

His anticipation is horrible and he doesn't move that well. I don't think it took much out of Rafa at all.

At any rate, Nadal has garnered enough points to stay comfortably ahead, so it's a win-win for me.

 

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