CAMELOT FANTASIES

Very happy for Nishi but not for Gulbis I am hoping he'd convert it against Ferrer soon. I mean he should have done it by now but ... oh well.

Berdych vs Nadal is one of the most boring and predictable matches of all time.

Nadal was handed a very good draw to begin with but now with Dimitrov losing and Murray faltering, it has opened up so much more.

Soon it's going to get very difficult to tell Nadal from the lines officials.  Nadal is the one in the blue shirt...

This is one reason I'm unhappy with Clay Warrior.

This was his return position against Monaco, who might get his serve between 105 and 110 mph on a good day.  I think I occasionally saw him leaning on the back fence when he faced some other servers.

He can't be playing this far behind the baseline against players  like Ferrer and Nishikori. 
They tend to hit flatter and more angled shots, which will just go by him if he positions himself so far back.

He also has been hitting too many balls short from this deep position. 
An aggressive player who is not afraid of Nadal will take advantage of that.

If Rafa had played almost anyone with aggression and consistency instead of Monaco, I don't think he would have won that day.  Rafa's game was awful, especially in the first set, which he still won 6-1, which should tell you something about Monaco.  Rafa has been somewhat better in his last couple of matches, but look who he was playing.  Nieminen and Berdych.  Nieminen is outside top 30 on clay.  Berdych loses to Nadal before he steps on the court and might as well be out of the top 100 when he plays Nadal.  Ever since Madrid 2006, where Berdych last beat Nadal and was booed off the court by the fans for his antics and got a severe reprimand from Nadal, Berdych has not won against Nadal in 17 straight matches.  I think one more match sets or ties this ignominious record.   

Rafa's confidence may be higher after his last couple of matches, but I don't know if that was the real factor anyway.  He had simply been playing badly, so of course he didn't have confidence.  Short returns, poor serving, favoring his backhand wing (running around the backhand), leaving too much court open on his forehand, and also missing simple shots that he would normally make 98 out of 100 times.   

He needs more work, more matches on clay, pure and simple, to hone his ground game.  Getting to the final in Madrid will help, and a final in Rome would be great for him.  I think he would still be a little light on match play going into RG, but if he can get past the first 3-4 rounds playing good tennis, then he would be very difficult to stop by the time he gets to the semis and final.

I know I must sound a bit harsh considering Nadal hasn't dropped a set yet in Madrid, but I try to see things as they are with Rafa and others, not as I wish them to be.  He's going to playing some good clay court players sooner or later and he needs to be ready.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Little beast 5'9" David Ferrer took down the towering 6' 10" John Isner, yet again, 6-4, 6-4. 

Ferrer's return of the Isner serve was just incredible.  In the first set, Isner put 83% of his first serves in, but Ferrer won 38% of those, which is a high number against Isner. Isner's first serve in pct, declined to 73% (still very good) in the second set and Ferrer's pct won increased to 42%.  Of course, clay tends to negate the serve some, but still a great return game from David.  And then once the returns were in Ferrer has the better ground game, and one break for Ferrer each set is all it took.

So Quarter Finals are going to be:

[#5] Ferrer vs. Gulbis
[#10] Nishikori vs. F. Lopez

[#1] Nadal vs.  [#6] Berdych
Giraldo vs. Bautista Agut (edited:  Bautista Agut is now a very slight favorite)

Favorites in bold.

Do you see any upsets?

Respectfully,
masterclass

Soon it's going to get very difficult to tell Nadal from the lines officials.  Nadal is the one in the blue shirt...

This is one reason I'm unhappy with Clay Warrior.

This was his return position against Monaco, who might get his serve between 105 and 110 mph on a good day. I think I occasionally saw him leaning on the back fence when he faced some other servers.

He can't be playing this far behind the baseline against players  like Ferrer and Nishikori. 
They tend to hit flatter and more angled shots, which will just go by him if he positions himself so far back.

He also has been hitting too many balls short from this deep position. 
An aggressive player who is not afraid of Nadal will take advantage of that.

If Rafa had played almost anyone with aggression and consistency instead of Monaco, I don't think he would have won that day.  Rafa's game was awful, especially in the first set, which he still won 6-1, which should tell you something about Monaco.  Rafa has been somewhat better in his last couple of matches, but look who he was playing.  Nieminen and Berdych.  Nieminen is outside top 30 on clay.  Berdych loses to Nadal before he steps on the court and might as well be out of the top 100 when he plays Nadal.  Ever since Madrid 2006, where Berdych last beat Nadal and was booed off the court by the fans for his antics and got a severe reprimand from Nadal, Berdych has not won against Nadal in 17 straight matches.  I think one more match sets or ties this ignominious record.   

Rafa's confidence may be higher after his last couple of matches, but I don't know if that was the real factor anyway.  He had simply been playing badly, so of course he didn't have confidence.  Short returns, poor serving, favoring his backhand wing (running around the backhand), leaving too much court open on his forehand, and also missing simple shots that he would normally make 98 out of 100 times.   

He needs more work, more matches on clay, pure and simple, to hone his ground game.  Getting to the final in Madrid will help, and a final in Rome would be great for him.  I think he would still be a little light on match play going into RG, but if he can get past the first 3-4 rounds playing good tennis, then he would be very difficult to stop by the time he gets to the semis and final.

I know I must sound a bit harsh considering Nadal hasn't dropped a set yet in Madrid, but I try to see things as they are with Rafa and others, not as I wish them to be.  He's going to playing some good clay court players sooner or later and he needs to be ready.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Precisely general hercules.

But if I don't see him doing it in practice, how is he going to do it in match play?  I see what he does in practice.  He hits 3, 4, maybe 5 backhands and then dumps one into the net or sails one wide.  Then he goes back to running around it.

Toni should have two players or even a ball machine hitting to his backhand for as long as it takes each day. 

What is as long as it takes? 

Don't let him leave the practice court until he has hit 40 or 50 backhands in a row without missing, 75% cross court, 25% down the line.

Then he can take the center of the court without fear and stop giving up so much territory.  The man is getting older in terms of mileage.  He needs to play smarter as he gets older.  If he can't get off the baseline and come to the net to save energy, then he needs to position himself optimally on the baseline.

Watch this epic 80+ stroke rally at the 1978 Roland Garros final between Bjorn Borg and Guillermo Vilas.
I rarely see Borg  put himself out of position and he was very fast on the court.  Vilas also.  These are a couple of the greatest clay court players in history.



Respectfully,
masterclass