CAMELOT FANTASIES

once Rafa lifts the trophy at RG, a lot of these short term issues will go away. he can start anew after that.


even the loss today will be forgotten quickly once the RG crown is in the bag. that will wash away so much pain and suffering almost instantly.

it is almost a given that Rafa will meet Nole in the final at RG.

I just don't see anybody being able to deal with Rafa at a RG final. maybe in a year or two but not this year.


it is the last card Rafa has left to play. he wont let anybody get in his way there. I am sure of it.

I think Murray will be a factor too. His tennis was sublime on the clay. I believe he will make a statement next week, as well. He seems to have a new belief on clay. He was dialed in.

que pasa sports fans.


be advised that general Hercules (me) and general masterclass (one of the foremost tennis experts and tennis analysts in the word) are in full agreement about what has happened this season:


rafa is simply short on practice and match play on clay.

he failed to prepare properly for his clay season on both fronts: his ground game and his fitness

I know it sounds harsh as I am probably his greatest fan in the world but he was reckless and careless with respect to his preparation going into the single most important clay season of his life.

and that cost him big time.


I don't know why he doesn't get it: its not about the rankings and the points at this point in his career. for instance he said he gained 600 points as a result of making the final in rome today.


it is about losing over and over to nole. he has now lost 8 of last 9 sets to nole.


if you look at this match from a slightly different perspective, nole basically spotted him a set and then proceeded to run over him in the next 2 sets 6-3, 6-3.

nole hit nearly 50 winners on him.


simon hit even more. he hit around 60 winners.


rafa is slow and sluggish in his movement. he is also not as supremely fit as in the past. he said he was tired and that his legs were weary.

general Tee was the first to notice this in Miami. he said rafa looked slow, sluggish, and not as fit as in the past.


basically all this senseless bloodshed could have been avoided if rafa had just left for Mallorca after losing early in indian wells. that was the blessing from the gods. his back was not 100% and his clay season was approaching. he proceeded to fart around for 15 days instead.

he went to Miami for 2 simple reasons: he went there to collect his appearance fee and to grab a few cheap points. I knew that he was making a massive mistake by going there.

there was no way in hell he was going to be able to take clay for granted forever. he is older now and he had not played well after the back injury.


it was time to go home after indian wells and jump on the soft clay to protect his back and to find his ground game in time for his clay season.

he is correct when he says he is out of confidence and stuff: what he is really trying to tell you that he is not confident enough of his ground game.

and the reason why he is not confident enough is because of 2 simple reasons: he wont put in the hard yards in practice on the red clay.

and he wont work diligently on his fitness.

that leaves him sort of unarmed in a way against nole: he is not really fully able to engage him in battle off the ground. he cant stay in the rallies like he has been able to for a decade. that is why ferru ran over him at monte carlo and then almagro got in the line too in Barcelona. he too took out rafa in the quarters.


nole won the long rallies today and he has been winning majority of the long rallies in his last 4 matches against rafa. and that is where the match was won and lost.

I did not see the match and I do not intend to. I am just not going to see rafa in this way.

I know he is a lot better than that.


he lost focus after the Australian open because of the back injury and he has yet to really fully find it again.


I can assure you that his 90 minute practice sessions are not getting the job done. he claims that he does not like to hit too many backhands.


and I will claim right now and right here that he cant beat a top gun like nole without a fully functioning backhand. you cant give up too much real estate. that is the reason why nole struck nearly 50 winners today.



now the sliver lining is that hopefully these losses will force him to focus more on his game and his fitness. he is still rafa. he will search deep to find some answers.

rafa does not lose much. he still has the highest winning percentage ever in the open era.


its just that he has lost a bit too much on clay this year. last time he lost 3 times on clay in such a short period was in 2004. he was just a kid then.


all he really needs is one good match in the final and he can take home his 9th RG crown. there is no other option left for him now.

he cant give up the king of clay title while still in his prime. I think he will do it. he will beat nole in straights or 4 sets in the final.

rafa's 8 RG finals wins in as many finals will give him the edge going into the final.  nole is tough but he is not as tough as rafa on the red clay.

rafa just happen to slip up and fall down. he will get up again.

he will take this RG crown but he is going to have to come back a lot fitter and a lot more lean and mean next year.

and of course he will have to prepare better for his clay season in 2015. there is no shame in playing smaller events in south America.

it beats the hell out of losing to players like ferru, almagro, and nole. and it sure as hell beats the hell out of winning damn near nothing and struggling against everybody.

que pasa sports fans.


be advised that general Hercules (me) and general masterclass (one of the foremost tennis experts and tennis analysts in the word) are in full agreement about what has happened this season:


rafa is simply short on practice and match play on clay.

he failed to prepare properly for his clay season on both fronts: his ground game and his fitness

I know it sounds harsh as I am probably his greatest fan in the world but he was reckless and careless with respect to his preparation going into the single most important clay season of his life.

and that cost him big time.


I don't know why he doesn't get it: its not about the rankings and the points at this point in his career. for instance he said he gained 600 points as a result of making the final in rome today.


it is about losing over and over to nole. he has now lost 8 of last 9 sets to nole.


if you look at this match from a slightly different perspective, nole basically spotted him a set and then proceeded to run over him in the next 2 sets 6-3, 6-3.

nole hit nearly 50 winners on him.


simon hit even more. he hit around 60 winners.


rafa is slow and sluggish in his movement. he is also not as supremely fit as in the past. he said he was tired and that his legs were weary.

general Tee was the first to notice this in Miami. he said rafa looked slow, sluggish, and not as fit as in the past.


basically all this senseless bloodshed could have been avoided if rafa had just left for Mallorca after losing early in indian wells. that was the blessing from the gods. his back was not 100% and his clay season was approaching. he proceeded to fart around for 15 days instead.

he went to Miami for 2 simple reasons: he went there to collect his appearance fee and to grab a few cheap points. I knew that he was making a massive mistake by going there.

there was no way in hell he was going to be able to take clay for granted forever. he is older now and he had not played well after the back injury.


it was time to go home after indian wells and jump on the soft clay to protect his back and to find his ground game in time for his clay season.

he is correct when he says he is out of confidence and stuff: what he is really trying to tell you that he is not confident enough of his ground game.

and the reason why he is not confident enough is because of 2 simple reasons: he wont put in the hard yards in practice on the red clay.

and he wont work diligently on his fitness.

that leaves him sort of unarmed in a way against nole: he is not really fully able to engage him in battle off the ground. he cant stay in the rallies like he has been able to for a decade. that is why ferru ran over him at monte carlo and then almagro got in the line too in Barcelona. he too took out rafa in the quarters.


nole won the long rallies today and he has been winning majority of the long rallies in his last 4 matches against rafa. and that is where the match was won and lost.

I did not see the match and I do not intend to. I am just not going to see rafa in this way.

I know he is a lot better than that.


he lost focus after the Australian open because of the back injury and he has yet to really fully find it again.


I can assure you that his 90 minute practice sessions are not getting the job done. he claims that he does not like to hit too many backhands.


and I will claim right now and right here that he cant beat a top gun like nole without a fully functioning backhand. you cant give up too much real estate. that is the reason why nole struck nearly 50 winners today.



now the sliver lining is that hopefully these losses will force him to focus more on his game and his fitness. he is still rafa. he will search deep to find some answers.

rafa does not lose much. he still has the highest winning percentage ever in the open era.


its just that he has lost a bit too much on clay this year. last time he lost 3 times on clay in such a short period was in 2004. he was just a kid then.


all he really needs is one good match in the final and he can take home his 9th RG crown. there is no other option left for him now.

he cant give up the king of clay title while still in his prime. I think he will do it. he will beat nole in straights or 4 sets in the final.

rafa's 8 RG finals wins in as many finals will give him the edge going into the final.  nole is tough but he is not as tough as rafa on the red clay.

rafa just happen to slip up and fall down. he will get up again.

he will take this RG crown but he is going to have to come back a lot fitter and a lot more lean and mean next year.

and of course he will have to prepare better for his clay season in 2015. there is no shame in playing smaller events in south America.

it beats the hell out of losing to players like ferru, almagro, and nole. and it sure as hell beats the hell out of winning damn near nothing and struggling against everybody.

OK. you win. You're Rafa's number 1 fan. I'll take number 2! I have nothing to add, you and masterclass warned of this as the season progressed.

But, let me run this by you. Do you think there was a problem with Xisca? She hadn't been at his matches for awhile. She just turned up this week, but I hadn't seen her. I wonder if that was a factor.


I know, I'm reaching, but I'm desperate, dang it!

Quote from: Clay Death on May 19, 2014, 01:01:56 am

que pasa sports fans.


be advised that general Hercules (me) and general masterclass (one of the foremost tennis experts and tennis analysts in the word) are in full agreement about what has happened this season:


rafa is simply short on practice and match play on clay.

he failed to prepare properly for his clay season on both fronts: his ground game and his fitness

I know it sounds harsh as I am probably his greatest fan in the world but he was reckless and careless with respect to his preparation going into the single most important clay season of his life.

and that cost him big time.


I don't know why he doesn't get it: its not about the rankings and the points at this point in his career. for instance he said he gained 600 points as a result of making the final in rome today.


it is about losing over and over to nole. he has now lost 8 of last 9 sets to nole.


if you look at this match from a slightly different perspective, nole basically spotted him a set and then proceeded to run over him in the next 2 sets 6-3, 6-3.

nole hit nearly 50 winners on him.


simon hit even more. he hit around 60 winners.


rafa is slow and sluggish in his movement. he is also not as supremely fit as in the past. he said he was tired and that his legs were weary.

general Tee was the first to notice this in Miami. he said rafa looked slow, sluggish, and not as fit as in the past.


basically all this senseless bloodshed could have been avoided if rafa had just left for Mallorca after losing early in indian wells. that was the blessing from the gods. his back was not 100% and his clay season was approaching. he proceeded to fart around for 15 days instead.

he went to Miami for 2 simple reasons: he went there to collect his appearance fee and to grab a few cheap points. I knew that he was making a massive mistake by going there.

there was no way in hell he was going to be able to take clay for granted forever. he is older now and he had not played well after the back injury.


it was time to go home after indian wells and jump on the soft clay to protect his back and to find his ground game in time for his clay season.

he is correct when he says he is out of confidence and stuff: what he is really trying to tell you that he is not confident enough of his ground game.

and the reason why he is not confident enough is because of 2 simple reasons: he wont put in the hard yards in practice on the red clay.

and he wont work diligently on his fitness.

that leaves him sort of unarmed in a way against nole: he is not really fully able to engage him in battle off the ground. he cant stay in the rallies like he has been able to for a decade. that is why ferru ran over him at monte carlo and then almagro got in the line too in Barcelona. he too took out rafa in the quarters.


nole won the long rallies today and he has been winning majority of the long rallies in his last 4 matches against rafa. and that is where the match was won and lost.

I did not see the match and I do not intend to. I am just not going to see rafa in this way.

I know he is a lot better than that.


he lost focus after the Australian open because of the back injury and he has yet to really fully find it again.


I can assure you that his 90 minute practice sessions are not getting the job done. he claims that he does not like to hit too many backhands.


and I will claim right now and right here that he cant beat a top gun like nole without a fully functioning backhand. you cant give up too much real estate. that is the reason why nole struck nearly 50 winners today.



now the sliver lining is that hopefully these losses will force him to focus more on his game and his fitness. he is still rafa. he will search deep to find some answers.

rafa does not lose much. he still has the highest winning percentage ever in the open era.


its just that he has lost a bit too much on clay this year. last time he lost 3 times on clay in such a short period was in 2004. he was just a kid then.


all he really needs is one good match in the final and he can take home his 9th RG crown. there is no other option left for him now.

he cant give up the king of clay title while still in his prime. I think he will do it. he will beat nole in straights or 4 sets in the final.

rafa's 8 RG finals wins in as many finals will give him the edge going into the final.  nole is tough but he is not as tough as rafa on the red clay.

rafa just happen to slip up and fall down. he will get up again.

he will take this RG crown but he is going to have to come back a lot fitter and a lot more lean and mean next year.

and of course he will have to prepare better for his clay season in 2015. there is no shame in playing smaller events in south America.

it beats the hell out of losing to players like ferru, almagro, and nole. and it sure as hell beats the hell out of winning damn near nothing and struggling against everybody.

OK. you win. You're Rafa's number 1 fan. I'll take number 2! I have nothing to add, you and masterclass warned of this as the season progressed.

But, let me run this by you. Do you think there was a problem with Xisca? She hadn't been at his matches for awhile. She just turned up this week, but I hadn't seen her. I wonder if that was a factor.


I know, I'm reaching, but I'm desperate, dang it!

we will just take turns princess TT. one week I will be his greatest fan and the following week you will take over. we will just alternate.



I don't think the problem is xisca. the problem is that he was either misled or misguided or both.

there is just immense demand on him around the globe. all his sponsors and his fans are almost weighing on him a bit.


he went to Oregon while farting around indian wells because NIKE asked him to be there. they sent  jet to go pick him up.

he played poker while right in the middle of the tournament because he has a huge contract with Poker Stars.

same thing in Monte Carlo. those Poker Stars people were again hounding him. and then he went sailing while there.

he also spent a day in Madrid. he took a train when he should have taken a jet. that was waste of 2 days. he was seen at the real Madrid soccer game.


it is just one thing after another. he did not bother to go jump on clay and stay there to figure out his ground game and his return. he also did not bother to put in sufficient work on fitness.


those are the only 2 things that are costing him: he is not the ground stroking machine he once was because he does not work as hard as he used to. he also does not work hard enough on his fitness.

now add to that the fact that others have significantly stepped up their efforts on the practice and the fitness fronts.


still we have a sliver lining: they still cant beat him in a best of 5 sets match on clay because he has the time to figure things out and do some problem solving in 5 sets matches.

he now just has to get rid of them all in straight sets until the final.


so its just one match---the one in the final----that he has to play well. he has to be focused and ready to deal with who ever is on the other side of the net. he has to let it all hang out as they say and fight tooth and nail for his crown.


I think he will do it.

After thinking about how tough I've felt that it has been for Rafa to hold serve lately, I checked the stats.

Some might be surprised that Nadal has been a leader in some of the career serve stats.
Here are the key ones I picked out, and then compare them to this year, and separate out by surface.

T=Total Pct. R=Rank among all players, H=Hard Court Pct., G=Grass Pct., C=Clay Pct.

Rafael Nadal                       CAREER                                    2014
                                   T - R       H - R     C - R     G - R   | T - R       H - R    C - R     G - R

1st Serve Pct.                     69%-6       67%-10    71%-10     69%-8  |  71%-2      71%-2     71%-7    N/A

1st Serve won Pct.               72%-109      72%-151    70%-73   76%-106  | 71%-38     73%-35    69%-56    N/A

2nd Serve won Pct.                 57%-1        58%-1     56%-1     59%-2  |  55%-9      59%-2    51%-46    N/A

Service Games won                 86%-12       85%-17     85%-4    89%-17  | 84%-15     87%-13    81%-32    N/A

Notice that most of the 2014 stats barely differ from the career stats. 
But there is one significant difference.  Second serve won % stats on CLAY

The second serve won % differs by a whopping 5%, 56% to 51%, and his rank from #1 to #46.  5% is huge, when you consider that year by year the difference has been never more than 1%, and that the differences between players are very small, hence the rankings drop.

The service games won% reflects this stat.  It declines from 85% to 81% on clay in 2014, a 4% drop, and rank #4 to rank #32, also a large difference.

So, what does this tell us, and why, beyond that his second serve on clay isn't up to snuff?   I think that Rafa isn't getting as much action on his second serve as he usually does on the clay. 

Now one might usually say that the second serve won percentage usually reflects the ground game as much or more than the serve itself, but I think for Rafa on clay, this is not really true.  Notice his 1st serve percentages on clay are in line with his career stats, and it being clay and Rafa's serve,  I think the ground game comes into play just about as much on 1st serve as 2nd serve. Nadal doesn't get very many free serves.   So I think this discrepancy is mostly the serve.   

Now why is this happening?  One obvious answer might be the back injury.  Maybe he can't get enough spin on the ball.  For example, it requires more twisting effort to hit a kick serve, than a flat serve.  But why are his hard court stats still good? He played in Indian Wells and Miami after the back injury.  Maybe on hard courts, he hits it flatter?  Or maybe players are taking more risk against him on his second serve on clay, because the ball tends to sit up more?

So I'm going to be paying attention to this stat as Roland Garros progresses.  If he can stay near 55-56% 2nd serves won %, I think he'll be fine.  If he slips closer to 50%, then he will be in trouble, and I'm not sure it is something he can correct, if it is related to a physical problem.  Even if he says his back hasn't hurt him for awhile, I think he has been protecting the back, by not going all out.

For his sake, let's hope he is better in this respect at Roland Garros.  If not, it could be a tough road for him.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Thanks Lady TT.  I was amazed by the difference myself.  Typically these stats don't change much for top players, since they are so consistent. 

By the way, I looked at all return stats for Rafa for 2014,  and believe it or not, they are on par with his career stats, which are excellent by the way.  He's at or near the top in every category.

So it's definitely that second serve won percentage decline that sticks out as the problem from a statistical view.

Interesting that his hard court service percentages are actually slightly higher than his career percentages.
Not a big difference, but a percent or two.

This might tell someone that he has focused more on his hard court play in recent times, perhaps to the detriment of his clay court play... something general hercules and myself have been saying.  General hercules said he took his clay court play for granted.  Well, we will see if he can recover in time for the big one. 

Roland Garros begins today!  Good luck and good health to all players!

Let the war on the battlefield of the tennis gods begin!

Who will emerge as the last one standing?

Respectfully,
masterclass

thanks for posting the awesome stats general masterclass.


there are some stats that don't get revealed. for example the returns during the clutch moments in the game and the match.


rafa used to be pretty damn tough in the clutch.


even my dad made this remark the other day. and he does not even watch all that much tennis. he said rafa is not as calm as he used to be in the clutch.


well that much is pretty obvious; there are simply too many things bothering him on the court in key moments.


but that being said, where he is really getting beat is at his own game: he is getting hustled off the ground by the lesser players.

he used to hustle them all off the ground.

take the rome masters final for instance. nole basically took control of the baseline battle in the last 2 sets.


so the matter is that of insufficient practice and insufficient training on the fitness front. nadal is not that old. if he can get back to focusing on his game and his fitness, he can start beating them all again.


nole does not allow for too many distractions and works like a dog on his game and his fitness 7 days a week.

in fact a lot of players like milos, ferru, dimitrov, and the others have stepped on their fitness in order to take it to the next level.


I am seeing a drop in nadal's supreme fitness levels. he needs his supreme fitness and his physicality. that gives him a decisive edge out there in the trenches.

if he can play on the hard courts then he can step p on his fitness also.

also he should be training longer and harder on the red clay on year around basis. that will put him right back in business.


so he wont have to make stupid remarks like these:

1. "get used to it" on his losing and having trouble out there
2. "I don't know if I can win another major again"



that is fuel for the competition. and it also does not do much for your own confidence.


ferru and almagro hear these remarks and then go out there and push him around. nadal had not lose to them on the red clay in decades.


it is a confidence issue only because he is making it a confidence issue. of course it hurts your confidence if you getting bossed around in the baseline rallies by the players that have no business taking more than 2-3 games off you in a set on the red clay.


but what has led to that dropped confidence is just 2 simple factors:


1. he refuses to put in the work/hard yards on the practice courts like he used to
2. he refuses to train harder and longer on the fitness front to keep up with the competition


there is another factor: too many outside distractions and too many extracurricular activities which can wait. soon he will have over 60 years to do all that outside stuff.


how many players will ever find themselves in a position nadal is to challenge history? I will say just one and that is nadal.


the sport has become too demanding. nobody is ever going get near the slam record again.

nadal seems to be walking away from perhaps the greatest challenge ever offered an athlete. he needs to embrace it and then go after it.

He isn't as calm as he used to be, that's for sure. I hadn't seen #2 listed above, what an odd statement. Maybe he has wearied of the tennis for now and is just going through the motions. It sure looks like it on court, but then again, hasn't Rafa always done this? Play outstanding one year and so-so the next?

He has been battling for a decade now; that has to be tiring. First he had to take on Federer in his ingenue stage all by himself, then the two supremely gifted players Nole and Andy in what started in his prime.

There's more pressure on Rafa than on any other player. Fed has made his mark and can now rest on his laurels. He's set the bar so high that it's going to be difficult to catch him anyway. And while he was battling for so many years straight Nole and Andy weren't doing too much. Now, they have risen to their proper positions in the game.

Can Rafa really be expected to continue fighting year in and year out without rest? I'm not so sure. I think he's tired, physically and mentally. It'll take a great push to go after the record at this point. Does he even want to? He also has physical issues to deal with as well.

I want him to play as long as he wants, and walk away when it's no longer relevant to him. Things work out the way they're supposed to in. We'll just have to wait and see.