CAMELOT FANTASIES

Lady TT, I feel best of 5 on clay hurts Raonic and his primary weapon, the serve.  He is not the fittest player.  It's very difficult for a server to maintain his focus for 5 sets.  Isner was one who almost got it done a couple of years ago against Rafa in the first round at Roland Garros, but he just couldn't keep that serve going  for the whole 5 sets, plus it was Rafa.   

Also, these top guys return so well, it puts a lot of pressure on the server. 

Now Raonic has improved off the ground.  I see him going to the net more, his forehand is a weapon, and his backhand has improved from what it was.  But he more or less has to play like a Soderling, play high risk tennis, hit the ball hard and try to end points quickly.  That strategy might upset a few players, but it's difficult to keep that up for 7 matches on clay.  Clay helps him in some ways like it helps Isner.  It slows play down enough to allow him to get to balls easier than grass or faster hard.  And the ball bounces higher, which goes into the tall players strike zone.  This is primarily why Isner and Raonic have had some success on clay vs. grass.   

Grass requires better footwork than they have, especially on fresh slippery grass.  Once you get into the second week at Wimbledon, it gets easier for those that don't have the best footwork, since the baseline becomes more like dirt, especially if the weather has been sunny and dry.  But it's not always easy to make it to the second week there.   It would surprise me to see Raonic progress past the QF at Roland Garros.  But of course, it depends on how the draw is and how it plays out.   

I think Tsonga at his best with the right draw might have a chance.  But he hasn't been at his best this year, and for some reason has been unlucky with draws lately.  Also, there is more pressure on him in Paris, being French.  He really should have beaten Djokovic a couple of years ago in the QF.  He was up 2 sets to 1 and had him in that 4th set and it slipped away,  and he lost the tiebreaker 10-8. 
Tsonga has the ability to raise his level very high, but he can't seem to keep it for more than a couple of matches.  Berdych can beat anybody but Rafa, and Djokovic too perhaps, but he also is not consistent from match to match. 

Del Potro being out of the picture helps the top players since he can beat any of them on his day, or at least give them a close enough battle that they will be tired for the next match.   So I'm guessing that at least 2 of the top 4 will make the semifinals.  But who knows, eh? That's why they play.

Respectfully,
masterclass