CAMELOT FANTASIES

Lady TT, General Hercules, I agree with most of what you both say.  You both know Rafa and his game very well.

So I tried to step back from these recent events and look at it from the point of view since last year's Roland Garros.

If I recall correctly, Rafa in 2014 had overcome one of his poorest clay campaigns in 10 years to still win his amazing 9th title at Roland Garros.

So the good news for him is that even though he only played 16 matches on clay prior to Roland Garros, by the time he faced Djokovic, he was playing his 23rd match on clay.

Usually he has at least 20 matches on clay prior to Roland Garros, but he didn't last year.  On the other hand, he went deep on Miami's slow court last year prior to the clay season, which may have hurt him a bit for the clay season.

So let's use last year as a barometer of sorts.   Unfortunately, I don't think he is coming into this clay season as fit as previously, though he may be healthier after those maladies post Wimbledon last year and lack of playing time for the last 9 months or so.  I think he needs to do better this clay season than last year from both fitness and confidence perspective.   I think if he can get 18 matches on clay and at least 2 titles (preferably either MC or Rome Masters), he should be ok for RG. Less than those results, and it's not so good.   

The worst that can happen is he loses at RG.  Well, he still has 9 titles there.  Nobody can take those from him. 

It's more important that he stays healthy to be fit and play more if that is what he wants to do.  If he doesn't then, he has already had a great career that will go down as one of the greatest in tennis history.  Could it have been even greater? Maybe, but it could have been worse also.  I believe as fans of great tennis and Nadal, one has to look at it from that bigger perspective.

We also have to look at the other players.  Rafa doesn't play in a vacuum.  Some of the younger players are beginning to step up a bit, like Raonic and Nishikori and others.  But maybe more importantly, Djokovic is fit as any player on the planet and playing as well as ever, and Federer is not doing badly, though surprising that at his age, he is still one of the few that seems capable of stopping Djokovic.  Murray looks like he is improved from last year, but still with not quite enough to challenge the top 2.  Why are the top guys so far above the rest?  They have supreme fitness, good scheduling, and of course the talent, match fitness, and confidence to play at that level. 

IF Rafa wants to get back to their level, he simply must have more match play that he lost after Wimbledon in 2014 through the end of the year.  But 2015 started relatively equally.  He needed to work hard to get his level back.  The top two are way ahead of him in that manner.  Federer and Djokovic have been playing each other to higher levels and leaving the rest behind.  To get back to that, he needs to stop losing to guys that he has owned in the past.  He has to work hard at his fitness and energy levels, so that he feels like he can get to any ball, at any stage of a 3 set match, at least (he has gone away in latter stages recently), not to mention best of 5, and then start winning these, to give him some confidence and not be so nervous.  He also has to play correctly.  He has seemed confused at what to do out there at times when he loses the plot.  His return of serve is certainly worrying.  He's doing that returning from the stands again and is lucky to get the ball back past the service line.  These big hitters like Verdasco must salivate.  Then when he gets behind, he tries to play with more aggression, but starts spraying balls as he moves up nearer the baseline or inside it.  His usual dependable forehand has been hot and cold and wandered away just when he needs it to work.   I still believe fitness and return of serve are the key for him.   

Ask yourself this question also.  Why has his game deteriorated so much against left handers recently?  He is 73-11 career against southpaws now, but only 5-4 in the last 52 weeks.  He's lost to Klizan, Feli Lopez, Berrer, and Verdasco.  He should handle these guys like he has handled them in the past.  But he hasn't.  The five lefties he has beaten in the last year don't generally have as good a serve or big forehands as these guys.  Rafa isn't returning them well enough, and he is not lasting long enough.   Miami in my opinion was time thrown away.  I don't know why he played, maybe they twisted his arm. He has never won there.  Exiting Larry Ellison's grounds and heading back to Manacor's clay courts and working on his clay court game 5-6 hours/day and playing practice matches with his considerable friends would have done him more good in my opinion, but I guess many could say, who am I? 

I haven't played tennis at anywhere near their level, but I have personally observed the greats and contenders from Laver, Pancho Gonzalez, Rosewall, Connors, Borg, McEnroe, Lendl, Sampras, Agassi, Federer,  Nadal, Djokovic, etc., to this day, and I've seen what it takes and what they do to win at the highest level and what happens when they lose what it takes to stay up there.  When their game or fitness level is off, and they have the burning desire to improve, they go off court and work like the devil on their games and fitness.  Otherwise, they are often distracted by other things in life, they begin to lose their ability and passion for the game, and they hang it up.  Their is no shame in that. It happens to all sportsmen in time.  When that time comes, one has to congratulate them for their contribution to the game and wish them well as they go on.   I won't pretend to know how Rafa feels at the moment; he says he wants to fix what is wrong, so we shall see what happens and wish him the best.  One thing I've learned over the years observing the greats, you can never write them off till they leave the game forever.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Great post, as usual Masterclass, but...

My thing is, why is Rafa the only one always under the microscope? I mean, even at his peak Djokovic is not having multiple slam wins in a year. Of the past 3 1/2 years, outside of 2011 he's only won one major per year. I think the hype doesn't have much substance.

Federer is playing great too, but we have to remember that he slumped miserably a few years ago. Was it fitness? No, I think it was a lapse of concentration and motivation. Federer also plans a great schedule, and I don't know if it's true but the commentators actually said that Federer can play whenever he wants to, I assume without penalty. That's nuts, because everyone else must adhere to a rigid schedule or be penalized. So, I think that perks such as these allow Federer to play more freely, because whatever he does, he's going to get a pass. Has he ever been criticized? Not that I know of, and no one is above criticism, not even Federer. So that's also a component that the other players have to deal with. I feel sorry for Rafa and Murray for all the criticisms that they have to play with on a daily basis. As a human being that has to be tough. And when Federer is losing it's all about the back problem, he's only playing for the love of the game and other such nonsense. He is a great player, but he is also favored ridiculously. He gets to pick his times except for the occasional night matches or opening matches, etc. He is and has been pampered his entire career. The only time he wasn't was when they prematurely predicted his demise and Federer wasn't so genial then. He was irritated and rightly so, but he only got a smidgen of what the other guys have constantly dealt with on a year to year basis. Which brings me to Murray.

Andy hasn't gotten back to where he should be and I don't quite understand why. We see flashes of his brilliance, but overall, he seems to be intimidated by those who are above him, again. It's baffling to me. It almost seems like mentally or emotionally he's right back where he was when he was first proving himself. Still, if Andy can be not where he was after being back for over a year I don't understand how Rafa is supposed to be all the way back in a few months. That's a head scratcher to me.

Now Rafa. The only difference to me with Rafa's game is that he came back during hard court season. Naturally, he's not going to be grooved, so I expect inconsistent play. Just as I would if he came back in the clay season without a lot of matches under his belt and played Monte Carlo and Rome before RG. It would appear that once back on the tour you have to re-acclimate yourself to playing matches with things on the line, as opposed to practice sessions. You can't simulate those feelings in practice. You have to adjust again to starting a match without knowing how long the match will last. You must also re-learn how to play with tension and not so positive thoughts because you don't know where you are, you're just trying to get back where you were. Also, sans injury, Rafa has been very consistent; winning a major every year since 2004. Not many players can say that. He has not suffered constant dips in form when he has been healthy. So, I think people are looking at Rafa's situation without a discerning eye. They're expecting more of him than they do everyone else, and i don't think that's fair.

To me, he's done enough and is already in the Hall of Fame, but when he comes back from injury, just once I'd like to see him enjoy the perks that other players get when they return from injury. Just the other day when Sharapova was losing the commentators were talking about her shoulder surgery. Really, after three or four years, while hyping her to the high heavens, and she's done nothing spectacular in the game. del Potro, we understand will also have to go through a transition. No one expects him to be in his US Open form just because he's del Potro. That would be ludicrous. That's why I think the way that Rafa is approached is also ludicrous, unless someone can show me a situation where the expectations have ever been this stringent for another great player.

So far, I haven't seen it.