CAMELOT FANTASIES

Greetings everyone!

Finally, the quarter finals of Roland Garros are here.  7 of the men's top 8 seeds made the QF.  Only poor Tomas Berdych is missing. He had the misfortune of poor weather, where he has never been good (a lot of wind and high ball tosses don't mix). But one seed's loss is another man's gain, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is a deserving benefactor.  He battled Tomas and the weather, and was hitting his fearhand better than I've seen him since Canada last year.  If he continues that, he'll be the dangerous dark horse of the tournament.

Of course tomorrow, all eyes will be focused on the Nadal-Djokovic match. Many have said and are saying that it is not fair for Rafa and the tournament that they are playing so early.  I can understand that, but I'm not the type to pull punches, even if I admire them very much.  Rafa knew what was at stake. He had since the beginning of the year to work hard and get things right with his game, but it has taken longer than expected, and it cost him his high seed. One tournament win in the clay season would have been enough to stop this from happening, but it didn't happen. So it is what it is.

It's sad for me to say that for the first time in a long time I don't favor Rafa in a battle at Roland Garros, because it is not in his hands.  He has struggled too much and too recently on his favorite surface. For the first time, he comes into a top battle with only 18 matches in the clay season under his belt (14 + 4@RG). Last year he had 23 before meeting Novak, with a win in Madrid and a final in Rome. Before that, since 2005, he always had 25 or more matches played.  I'm surprised and disappointed that after early losses this year, especially after Barcelona, that he didn't choose to play in the lesser events that were available to get more matches inside him.  He had 3 tournaments available, Munich, Estoril next door, and Istanbul Turkey. Federer was in Istanbul and Murray in Munich, why not Estoril for Rafa? Ok, but he didn't.  You can't say it in any other way; he comes into this big battle undercooked.

So in my opinion, it's going to take the best effort Rafa can give to win this, but it may not be enough.  He is going to need some luck, and also hope that Novak is nervous or under par and below his very consistent high level of late.  That's why I said it is not in Rafa's hands. 

I agree with others here that say Rafa needs to have a good start.  I think he needs to come out guns blazing and snatch the first set quickly (like 3 games or under lost), and put as much pressure as he can on Novak to start the second set. He can't afford to just play level with him because it is a best of 5 set match.  He needs to treat it like best of 3.  And I believe he is capable of getting a great start. He has shown that this year.   IF he can do that, and play well for 2 sets, taking the 2 set to 0 lead, then he has a chance.  I'm not saying it will be sewn up at 2-0. Djokovic is the fittest player on the planet, sadly for Rafa, significantly more than him right now, and even 2 sets down he has a good chance to grind it out and make it last until his opponent is too exhausted.  But I think it is Rafa's best chance to snatch this even though almost everything is against him this time.  Even the draw worked against him. It was too easy.  Sock was the first top 100 player he played, #37, and even he ball bashed his way to taking a set from Rafa. Fortunately, Sock could not keep that level up for more than that.  But in the past, Rafa would have dispatched that match in an easy 3 sets.  But he didn't and we know he is susceptible to the fall off this year, even serving to win sets. He can't afford that luxury with Djokovic.  Djokovic would take that opportunity and run with it.

In the other quarter final tomorrow in the top half, we have Murray and Ferrer.  Murray has been good enough to beat an average draw to this point.  Ferrer had one of the two toughest draws to the quarter finals, only Wawrinka's was tougher, but has managed to have great results anyway. He has the best game won pct. of anyone remaining in the tournament.  He's playing well.  It would not surprise me to see him take out Mr. Murray. I put it about 60-40 in Ferrer's favor.

The quarter finals in the bottom half today should be interesting.  Kei Nishikori was the benefactor of a bye in the 3rd round, and it did not hurt him for his 4th round win. So he is the least taxed player in the tournament, which is always good for him, since he has appeared susceptible to fitness issues over the course of a slam tournament.  But his fitness looks good and 1 match less played helps him.   Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has finally started showing good form again.  His forehand looked superb in defeating Berdych.  The question is whether he'll be able to repeat that performance against Kei.  IF he can repeat or even improve upon his play and get hot, he is capable of blowing almost anyone off the court.  But it is a big IF for him. He'll need his best game and a bit of luck to beat Kei.  The match-up favors Kei, whose backhand is much better than Tsonga's. But on clay, Tsonga has a bit more time to run around and hit the forehand.  I make it 65-35 Kei, he has the winning H2H, but they have not played on clay. But I wouldn't be surprised if Tsonga takes it either.  He is the dark horse who is capable of raising his level quite high when he is on.

The last quarter final is Federer and Wawrinka.  On the H2H, it looks like an easy time for Federer.  But Stan has played very well here with the toughest draw to the QF. I think Federer has played about average for himself, though he looked pretty good yesterday against Gail Monfils, but some of that was due to Monfils.  If Stan can play his best, like at the World Tour Finals last year, and not be intimidated by his countryman, I think he has a good chance to win against Roger, and maybe a better chance to make it to the final.  I give Federer a slight edge, because he knows how to play Stan, but I wouldn't be surprised if Stan takes it and lets Roger move on to the grass season.  Federer is no spring chicken and clay gets very difficult at his age. Only 4 players in the Open Era have won RG past the age of 30.  Andres Gomez at 30 yrs. 3 months, Laver at 30 yrs. 9 months, Rosewall at 33 yrs 7 months, and Gimeno incredibly at 34 years 10 months.  But the latter 3 were before 1973. So that hasn't happened for a long time when tennis was different.   There is a reason, of course.  Clay takes a physical toll on the body. You have to be prepared for long rallies and long matches. It's a younger man's game.   But Roger has a chance still, because he is not playing standard clay court tennis. He continues to be very aggressive when he gets any opportunity.  He knows at his age he can't engage in too many long ralliies, even as fit as he is.  So he tries to play as aggressively as possible and give himself a chance to go deep. He has made the QF this year, so with a little luck he might go further.

That's how I see it.  Best of luck and health to all the players, and the same wishes for all the good people here.  Enjoy!

Respectfully,
masterclass

Excellent post and commentary. Spot on in every way. I especially agree about Rafa. He had time to prevent the #6 seeding, so that is on him. He also had chances to get in more clay matches, but it is what it is. I think he wasn't motivated to do so, and even now he doesn't seem to mind. So, I as a fan, can't be disappointed. Sometimes it's not in you and you don't feel like doing something. That's life.

The best I can hope for is a good match. I don't care about dethroning and all that nonsense. This is sport.