CAMELOT FANTASIES

at some point he just gave up the fight. shortly after that loss to wawrinka in Melbourne in 2014 he just went away.

General, you hit the nail on the head.  This is the result that delivered the crushing blow.  Wawrinka hits probably the heaviest shots in tennis. We just saw how he pummeled Novak Djokovic at Roland Garros.  If Novak were the slightest bit unfit or had any body weakness, I believe Wawrinka would have injured him. We saw how he injured Federer's back in the Master's Cup (WTF) at the very end of a tough match. He extended Federer to a point where the weakest part of his body failed.  A similar thing happened to Rafa at the 2014 Australian Open.  He wasn't quite fit enough, and Wawrinka played a monster first set and part way into the second set driving heavy shots that just extended Rafa past his physical limits, injured his back and began a decline in his confidence and mojo.

Once that happened, Rafa was struggling physically and emotionally the rest of the year and beyond.  The only thing he won of note was Roland Garros, but he did that mostly on inertia of his past glory and aura that created doubt in the minds of his opponents.  He struggled to win it, and has done virtually nothing of note since.

But the cause of these results happened before that.  I think after winning so much in 2013, holding that US Open trophy in his hand, something must have snapped in his head.  You see it often in the greats where they have accomplished something so big that they feel there is nothing left to prove and their motivation to keep achieving fails. 

I think it happened with Federer after a superb 2012, where he won Wimbledon, returned to #1, passed Sampras' record, and held it to Paris getting up to 302 weeks at #1.  What happened to him after that?  He went on a South American exhibition tour during the off season, and didn't train hard as he usually did.  He said to everyone that 2013 would be a transition year, where he would practice more and play less, and maybe experiment with some things like changing racquets.  In 2013, what happened?  His lack of training over the winter had made him vulnerable, and he reaped the whirlwind.  He hurt his back playing Dodig at Indian Wells, continued playing in the tournament instead of withdrawing, exacerbating it when managing to win against Wawrinka, then was obviously hampered by it when he lost to Nadal.  After that he wasn't the same. 

In 2013, Federer won only 1 title, in Halle.  He had averaged 4-5 titles/year from 2008 to 2012.  He shockingly lost in the second round at Wimbledon to #116 Stakhovsky, his worst loss in a major since 2002.  Sound familiar?  After that he went on the clay and experimented with switching to a larger racquet, but hurt his back again in Gstaad on clay, went back to his old racquet, but got beaten in Cinci,  and at the US Open lost to a player that had never beaten him, and should never have beaten him on hard courts, Robredo.  Sound familiar? After losing in New York early, Federer trained fairly hard and in the fall gradually began to recover his form and played decently, but didn't win anything with a final in Basel and semifinal results in Paris and London at the WTF.  In the off season between 2013 and 2014, Federer trained hard in Dubai again, got fit, and switched racquets from his old 90" to his current 97" model. 

So what happened? In 2014, he ended up making 11 finals, the most since his 12 finals in 2007.  He won only 5 of those, but two were Masters, and he was very close to winning Wimbledon. Even though his forehand was still not right after switching racquets, his backhand had more power, and his serve also was better.  But that power forehand was needed to win the close ones, and that was his goal for 2015, to win a higher percentage of finals than 50%.  So far in 2015 he has 4 wins in 6 finals, and his power forehand is coming around.  Against Querrey, I saw him unleash it like Federer of old.  So if he can keep that up, I think he'll be difficult to beat at Wimbledon this year, but we'll see, his age makes it more difficult to recover after tough ones. If he can keep winning these best of 5 in an hour until he gets to the business end he'll give himself a great chance.

I won't go into Murray's issues in detail, but it began with his victory at Wimbledon in 2013.  He achieved something monumental for himself.  He said it was his absolute dream, becoming the first British man in 77 years to win it.  After this win, he did not look as motivated, lost in some early rounds during the summer hard court season, and then finally elected to have surgery in the fall.  He couldn't train until late December.  2014 was his dead year.  He did almost nothing until the fall of 2014, where he won some minor tournaments that allowed him to qualify for the Master's Cup, but he was clearly spent and suffered heavy losses at the WTF, including his worst ever tour loss almost getting a double bagel from Federer.  Finally, Murray in the off season was able to train hard and get fit, and his results have been excellent since and he is back to #3 in the world, #2 in the race, and with a wide open draw now (Ferrer withdrawal, Nadal loss), he is almost a cinch to get to the semis at Wimbledon.

So what happened with Rafa after his 2013 US Open win?  What did he do, do you recall?  He followed Federer's example and in the off season went to South America and played in exhibitions, which cut his usual off season training. He played golf and poker. He did other things, and lost his fitness, and has paid the price since, starting with the 2014 Australian Open, and culminating with this loss to Brown at Wimbledon in 2015.  There is a difference between Nadal, and the Federer/Murray examples though.  They lost only a year. Rafa has had almost 2 years of struggling.  I think this happened purely because of poor decision making at the end of 2014. He should have taken that appendix surgery immediately, and not continued to play. Play for what?  Bad decision and I believe it cost him 2015.  After delaying that surgery, his off season training was delayed and very short.  He had no time to get fit for 2015, and we are seeing the result.

So, like Federer and Murray, I think if he wants to do it, he can train hard over the 2015-2016 off season and restore his fitness.  He has time now after Wimbledon to train some, but it isn't quite the same.  He can recover maybe 20-30% and maybe it will give him some fair results the rest of the year, not traditionally his strongest part of a season.  But he needs that off season over the winter to really train hard, and then I think you might see a different Nadal in 2016. Or should I say the Nadal of old?  But that only happens if he gets that fitness back, and if he wants it.  If not, then at his age/mileage, it won't look good for him, and he will put himself at high risk of getting injured again.  There are no short cuts (legal ones, anyway); he has to put in the hard work in the off season to perform well in 2016 and beyond.  He says he is physically healthy, so there is no excuse not to train hard, unless he just doesn't want to do it anymore. 

Rafa has excellent examples to follow, but whatever Rafa chooses to do, I wish him the best.

Respectfully,
masterclass