CAMELOT FANTASIES

I had the misfortune of watching that match yesterday.

One of the worst matches I've seen from a level of play point of view.  But it had drama.

Rafa looked like he was scared to death when he started serving in each set.
He went down 2-0 in the first set, 4-0 in the second set, and 2-0 in the third and deserved to be down.

But to his great fortune he had the currently impotent Dimitrov across the net.  In the first set, Dimitrov simply gave his lead (2-0 & 4-2) back to Rafa with horrendous serving. 34% first serves in.  Rafa won 4 straight games to take the set. Dimitrov's serve was much improved in the second but he was fortunate to get that double break, because he needed it, as his lead shrunk from 4-0 to 4-3.  The further each set went on, the more he weakened, and tightened up.  He won the second only because Rafa was playing about as awfully as he could.  Neither player saved a single break point in the first 2 sets.

There were some good points here and there, but the level of play was more down than up.  They played at best like top 20-30 players, and at times like top 200, if that.  Rafa's forehand was like a crap shoot; you didn't know if it might go in, or bounce before going over the net.

The third set picked up a bit, but followed the same pattern.  Rafa served first, was broken, Dimitrov held, and it was 2-0.  Then Rafa held, Dimitrov was broken, Rafa held for a 3-2 lead, then Dimitrov struggled for almost 8 minutes to hold to make it 3-3, Rafa served to love quickly for 4-3, and Dimitrov had nothing for his next service game and was broken for 5-3, and Rafa served it out for the match.

The only positive Rafa can take from the match is that he came through and won it, with good mentality toward the end.  His shot making is still very up and down.  He won't handle the better players playing like this. Dimitrov is like a train wreck out there these days.

It should be said the court works against Rafa. It's an indoor GreenSet court, similar to Paris and the O2.  Medium-slow to Medium pace at best, but quite a low bounce, unlike most of the other tournaments during the year.   So it's difficult for Rafa to get his topspin working, and many of his shots just sit up short begging to be smashed with disdain.  Rosol really should have beaten Nadal.  The match was completely on his racquet.  Rafa's balls had nothing on them, and it was like target practice for the flat hitting Rosol.  He lost 1 point on serve in the first set, easily winning it 6-1, and 3 points on serve in the second set until 5-4, 30-love, two points for the match.  He simply got nervous and tightened up, completely choked a sitting volley that would have given him 40-15, and finally double faulted the set away. Rosol gave Nadal the opportunity and Nadal took it.  Nadal said he was very lucky to win, and I agree with him.

What I hope is that Rafa doesn't get hurt playing these indoor tournaments.  He needs to work on his game if he wants any chance to improve from this year.  He has said that he won't be taking any time off this winter for vacation and his plan is to work on his game when he isn't playing in that IPTL glorified exhibition league.  We will see. I have a bad feeling he'll be staying on the hard courts playing and practicing instead of getting on the clay and solidifying his ground game.  His forehand is a shambles now.  So inconsistent. His timing is off.

The matches on hard court don't do him much good.  He has completely changed his game, moving very close to the baseline, yet still trying to take the big swing.  His success on the forehand on hard court mostly comes when he has time to run around his backhand in the backhand corner, and he can hit the forehand cross court.  But he leaves his forehand wing wide open, and if he doesn't hit an outright winner, he is far out of position for a shot to his forehand wing.  This pattern of play is killing him against the faster and better players.

Respectfully,
masterclass

at the current rate these things can happen:



1. exactly zero titles the remainder of the year.


2. 0-1 titles next year. he may get the hamburg title again. there was really nobody there this year and fognini choked in key moments. I will be generous with my prediction. I can make it 0-2 small titles next year.

3. there is an outside chance for the Rio title.


4. possible injury with these horribly depleted levels of fitness and physicality unless he gets off these bloody hard courts and go gets on clay do rediscover his ground game again.



I am just worried to death at this point of an injury which you know is coming.



he refuses to change a damn thing. he refuses to work on his game. he absolutely says NO to any significant effort on the fitness front.


rosol was just 2 points from victory. he just choked. he took the first set in just 23 minutes. he lost just 1 point on his first serve in that first set.


the man is ranked #69 in the world.



rafa cant even deal with players like him so how the hell is going to deal with the top guns of the sport.


dustin brown was ranked #110 and ran Rafa right off the court at Wimbledon. Rafa made 5 Wimbledon finals.


we cant make excuses for Rafa.  Rafa is not working very hard.

he and his team has to put a positive spin for his millions and millions of fans and also for the sponsors.


I think he is just trying to hang on for another year before actually walking away physically.


the fire from within no longer burns relentlessly otherwise he would do something about it.



why he is hanging on is not clear. he does not need the money. his 14 majors are worth over $1 billion over his lifetime.



I would just walk away and leave the legacy intact.