CAMELOT FANTASIES

Quote from: thetruth on November 12, 2015, 02:22:19 pm

Wow, this is a great article. Not good for me as a fan, but the truth is the truth.

Statisfaction: Looking at Nadal's Difficult 2015

By Chris Oddo | Wednesday, November 11, 2015

http://www.tennisnow.com/News/2015/November/Statisfaction-Looking-at-Nadal-s-Difficult-2015.aspx

Rafael Nadal's struggles against the top-10 have hindered his progress in the second half of 2015.

It has been a trying year for Rafael Nadal—that’s no secret. He's gone 4-10 vs. the Top-10 and won only one of eight vs. the Top-5. But the burning question still remains: why has Nadal’s once legendary game been diluted so much? Has Nadal just been the victim of nerves and are his struggles simply related to a lack of confidence in the big points? Or, are his issues larger and less correctable? Has the explosiveness and potency left his game, leaving his movement a step slow and his power less potent? If so, can he remedy this by 2016?

All year we’ve been curious to know what exactly is holding Nadal back. Rather than speculate we headed over to Tennis Abstract to get some cold, hard statistical insight into Nadal’s 2015. Has it really been as bad as it seems? Is he close to pulling out of it? We pulled five stats that tell the story of Rafael Nadal’s struggles. While they are no means a death sentence—it feels like Nadal is getting closer to finding his missing mojo every week—they do paint a picture of a player who has at least temporarily lost his dominion over the elite.

All stats come courtesy of Tennis Abstract:

1: Service Games Held: After spending 2012 and 2013 in the top-5 of this category, Nadal’s numbers have slipped in the last two years.
Service Games Held, Overall ranking/ Pct

2015: 16th, 84.1
2014: 13th, 85.3
2013: 5th, 88.1

2. Serving Woes vs. Top-10: Nadal has struggled even more vs. the ATP’s elite. This is where we really begin to see the difference in Nadal’s statistics.

Service Games Held vs. Top-10, Ranking/Pct

2015: 21st, 70.8
2014: 18th, 78.7
2013: 5th, 82.7

3. Sets won vs Top-10: Winning sets has been a challenge vs. the top-10. Again, the numbers are quite startling.
Sets Won vs. Top-10, Pct:

2015: 10-23, 30.3
2014: 18-12, 60
2013: 52-19, 73.2
4. Struggling to break Top-10 also: Our belief is that Nadal’s serve, and his difficulty holding serve, has been his biggest issue in 2015. But the stats show that he’s struggling to break against elite players as well:
Return games won vs. Top-10, Pct/ overall ranking
2015: 14.6, 18th
2014: 29.5, 3rd
2013: 31.5, 1st

Nadal’s doing fine in his return games overall, however:

Return Games Won, Overall, PCT/ overall ranking:

2015: 34.8, 2nd
2014: 35, 1st
2013: 33.8, 2nd

Note: Nadal broke 37.4 percent of the time on clay against the ATP this year, but against the Top-10 on clay, he only broke 19.7 percent of the time (in six matches). Apparently, Nadal has a mountain to climb on clay, just as he does on hard.
Do these statistics help shed any light on Nadal’s form, and give any guidance as to what he might need to do to improve his results? They probably make his situation look far worse than it really is. In reality, it doesn’t seem like he’s in a different league as the ATP’s Top-10 at the moment. But the stats do tell a different story.
We should find out a whole lot more next week in London, when only the Top-8 will be in play at the World Tour Finals. It’s the perfect opportunity for Nadal to get his confidence back against the players he’ll need to beat next year if he is to return to Grand Slam and Masters 1000 winning form.

that just shows that this fall was not by accident but by design. he walked away. that is why the casualties are so heavy on every front.

we have been saying that here for a while now.


also I saw this coming nearly 4 years ago. this drop is nearly 4 years in the making.


now you know what he is up against. this article says that he has a mountain to climb on clay as well.

well that is where they are wrong. he was never going to be much of a factor on the hard courts after that dream run of hard courts titles in 2013.

too many injury setbacks were right around the corner and they happened. that is one thing. secondly, little by little he was giving away his clay kingdom.

he was slowly and surely losing his unique competitive edge on the red clay. some of that was by design and some of that was injuries sustained on the hard courts.

at some point he was going to lose his competitive advantage on the red clay. it had to happen and it did.

excessive infatuation with the hard courts cost him. there was a time to back off the hard courts and it was right after 2013 U.S. Open title.

he foolishly chased #1 rank and ran his body into the ground to a point where it would hit the wall at the Australian Open.

sometimes in 2015--most likely after Barcelona--he called off the dogs and walked away.


this is why the casualties are so heavy. this is not a crisis of confidence. this is a crisis of lack of sufficient hunger and drive which led to doing as little as possible with the game and the fitness.

in the mean time his global popularity continues to soar and the world places huge demands on his time but also throws millions and millions at him for that time.

sometime after Barcelona he walked away.


he also prepared for his clay season in a worst possible way. he went on a vacation to costa rica before indian wells and he went to Miami where he nearly sprained his ankle. he accomplished nothing in indian wells and in Miami this time around.

he had skipped Miami last year.


so to prepare a little bit for monte carlo he brought in his buddy Monaco. not surprisingly his practice sessions were lame and pretty much a joke. they laughed and wasted a lot of time.

so it is possible that he walked away even before Indian Wells. but you can see the results of such little activity.


everything is suffering. he has no consistency at all. his serve is weak. his shots lack the depth and the pace.

his movement is horrible at best. his court positioning is now worse because he is trying to compensate for his lack of proper fitness.


he has a very tall mountain to climb. and it has to start on clay. if he cant beat them there then he cant beat them anywhere.

he did all this to himself and only he can fix it. by immense amount of hard work.


more on this later.

Superb post General.   Here's what Rafa and Toni have to say:

After several tough losses and disappointments, Rafael's motivation is still intact for the end of this season and for his ambitions for 2016. “My goal is to recover the level especially to play my best on clay next year,” he said.

“His confidence is built on that, his game is built on that,” Toni said of Roland Garros, where Rafael has won nine titles. “So yes, in order to regain those two we need to win back the clay. Of course we shouldn’t wait for the clay to start playing well again but the main goal remains to be again the No. 1 on the clay.”

Of course, as Toni likes to say, "talk is cheap", so let's see how and where Rafa trains and plays, and what happens.

Respectfully,
masterclass