Okay, fair enough. This does not answer the question though - what are you basing your recent upset on? What makes you think Benneteau will upset Nole? If it's just an example then never mind but otherwise I am not seeing any reason as to why Benneteau would upset Nole. Trying to jinx Benneteau would be just another silly attempt as well so I don't see you doing that. Typically upsets happen when there's a very good chance and we can detect those ahead of time - such as form, confidence, matchup etc. So I don't see your angle there.
Anyway, I do agree with your assessments on Nadal. He plays bad when he lacks confidence. He was very confident last year as he started out really fresh when the other top players looked pretty jaded after a long season. Since then Nadal has won a lot and played a lot so he too now is not feeling as fresh or not feeling mentally as confident as last year. So it's understood.