CAMELOT FANTASIES

You're right General.  Look at Ferru.  As you said, 32, well really 33 in a month.  These guys are fit, taking care of themselves, as much or more than the 20 somethings. Sometimes they need a bit of break, but then they are back right away.  3 titles already for the smallish Spaniard with the big heart.   Who ever thought someone 5'9" (in heels I think), would be competitive, much less beating the giants around these days.  And some people were calling him finished after barely making the top 10 last year.  Yeah right, I predict he'll get back in the top 5 in not too much time, if not higher.  He handled now 4th ranked Nishikori in style.

Rafa looks like he might be getting his act together, but I'm still not so sure.  Who has he faced, really?  He was very lucky to take that 1st set from Berlocq of all people.  Berlocq out and out choked, 6-1 up in the tiebreak, he just got nervous that he could win a set from Rafa.  Now Rafa plays his good friend Monaco.  Rafa needs lots of matches.  He needs work on the clay, Muster style if he is going to get that fitness back.  The older you get, the more you have to work on fitness.  And it applies to clay even more where the ground strokes are honed the most.  Too much time on hard court has left him with almost nothing. If I were Toni, I would lock that gate in Manacor to that hard court.  I would skip at least Miami or Indian Wells or both and practice hard on the clay and hire Moya and Ferrero or any one of the many Spaniards to hit with him 4-6 hours every day until Monte Carlo.  He's got the money if they have the time.  He needs this Roland Garros and a couple of other Clay Masters.  If he loses early at RG as he has been to some relative no-name, it will be disaster.   Usually, we say Rafa needs 20 matches on clay to be ready for RG.  This year, I think he needs 30 or more.  That's how far behind he is, due to the last 1/2 of 2014 being up in smoke.   

Not to beat the drum, but look at Federer.  Edberg told him he needs to play regularly if he expects to stay near the top, with just a break here or there, but once he starts playing he needs to keep playing or practicing hard.   Look at what Federer's plan this year is on clay General:

4/11-4/19 Monte Carlo
4/27-5/03 Instanbul Open
5/4-5/10 Madrid
5/11-5/17 Rome
5/25-6/7  Roland Garros

Almost 34 and playing 5 clay tournaments.  Why?

1. This year there is more time between Roland Garros and Wimbledon.  He can take a week off after Roland Garros and play Halle, then a week off and play Wimbledon.

2. Last year on clay he basically only played Monte-Carlo reaching the final - Their second set of twins came, Rome was one match, and then 4 matches at Roland Garros losing to Gulbis of all people. 

3. Yes, he won Halle, but I think was undercooked for Wimbledon. Not enough endurance built up from clay for 5 set matches at Wimbledon.  His ground game was not that good.  He hung in mostly due to his serve and aggressive tactics in the 4th set.  In the 5th set vs. Nole in the final at Wimbledon he had nothing left. 

4. Maybe he senses that he needs his ground game in better shape, and be good for Roland Garros to be in position to snatch it if  Rafa is not somewhere near his best.  Why should Djokovic get the reward by default if Rafa goes out early?  Federer has a win and 4 finals there.

5. Of course he doesn't have to make finals in all the clay events, but if he can get 20 matches in, it will serve him well at RG and Wimbledon.

So Rafa needs to get that work and matches on clay in.  There is no other way around it, or the others will pass him by.  He has a chance to win 10. Yes, I know that 9 is unbelievable, but he will turn 29 at Roland Garros.  The opportunity is there.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Quote from: masterclass on March 01, 2015, 12:05:26 pm

You're right General.  Look at Ferru.  As you said, 32, well really 33 in a month.  These guys are fit, taking care of themselves, as much or more than the 20 somethings. Sometimes they need a bit of break, but then they are back right away.  3 titles already for the smallish Spaniard with the big heart.   Who ever thought someone 5'9" (in heels I think), would be competitive, much less beating the giants around these days.  And some people were calling him finished after barely making the top 10 last year.  Yeah right, I predict he'll get back in the top 5 in not too much time, if not higher.  He handled now 4th ranked Nishikori in style.

Rafa looks like he might be getting his act together, but I'm still not so sure.  Who has he faced, really?  He was very lucky to take that 1st set from Berlocq of all people.  Berlocq out and out choked, 6-1 up in the tiebreak, he just got nervous that he could win a set from Rafa.  Now Rafa plays his good friend Monaco.  Rafa needs lots of matches.  He needs work on the clay, Muster style if he is going to get that fitness back.  The older you get, the more you have to work on fitness.  And it applies to clay even more where the ground strokes are honed the most.  Too much time on hard court has left him with almost nothing. If I were Toni, I would lock that gate in Manacor to that hard court.  I would skip at least Miami or Indian Wells or both and practice hard on the clay and hire Moya and Ferrero or any one of the many Spaniards to hit with him 4-6 hours every day until Monte Carlo.  He's got the money if they have the time.  He needs this Roland Garros and a couple of other Clay Masters.  If he loses early at RG as he has been to some relative no-name, it will be disaster.   Usually, we say Rafa needs 20 matches on clay to be ready for RG.  This year, I think he needs 30 or more.  That's how far behind he is, due to the last 1/2 of 2014 being up in smoke.   

Not to beat the drum, but look at Federer.  Edberg told him he needs to play regularly if he expects to stay near the top, with just a break here or there, but once he starts playing he needs to keep playing or practicing hard.   Look at what Federer's plan this year is on clay General:

4/11-4/19 Monte Carlo
4/27-5/03 Instanbul Open
5/4-5/10 Madrid
5/11-5/17 Rome
5/25-6/7  Roland Garros

Almost 34 and playing 5 clay tournaments.  Why?

1. This year there is more time between Roland Garros and Wimbledon.  He can take a week off after Roland Garros and play Halle, then a week off and play Wimbledon.

2. Last year on clay he basically only played Monte-Carlo reaching the final - Their second set of twins came, Rome was one match, and then 4 matches at Roland Garros losing to Gulbis of all people. 

3. Yes, he won Halle, but I think was undercooked for Wimbledon. Not enough endurance built up from clay for 5 set matches at Wimbledon.  His ground game was not that good.  He hung in mostly due to his serve and aggressive tactics in the 4th set.  In the 5th set vs. Nole in the final at Wimbledon he had nothing left. 

4. Maybe he senses that he needs his ground game in better shape, and be good for Roland Garros to be in position to snatch it if  Rafa is not somewhere near his best.  Why should Djokovic get the reward by default if Rafa goes out early?  Federer has a win and 4 finals there.

5. Of course he doesn't have to make finals in all the clay events, but if he can get 20 matches in, it will serve him well at RG and Wimbledon.

So Rafa needs to get that work and matches on clay in.  There is no other way around it, or the others will pass him by.  He has a chance to win 10. Yes, I know that 9 is unbelievable, but he will turn 29 at Roland Garros.  The opportunity is there.

Respectfully,
masterclass

perhaps his last opportunity at #10 given the rate of his decline. we both saw this decline coming right after he ran over Nole at the u.s. open in 2013.

we knew he was going to overextend himself trying to chase the #1 rank. well it was a lousy tradeoff: he threw away the opportunity to snatch his 2nd Australian open.
he showed up worn out and his body simply decided to quit on him.

and the rate of decline had already started. he was spending too much time on the hard courts trying to chase the #1 rank. I know they dangled big time appearance fees at him also.


well now he finds himself at #4 and not even able to gun down Fog on clay. Fog basically ran him right off the court in the last 2 sets in Rio.

all his injuries are a direct result of less than optimal training and scheduling. he should never installed an indoor hard court in Mallorca.

we knew his ground game would suffer and  we also knew that hard courts would continue to punish his body.


it is still not too late. there is very little time left now but it is still not too late. he has to get hold of himself and realize that the clay is the wellspring from which he flows.

he cant win anywhere if he cant win on clay. clay furnishes him with the ground game he needs to beat the world.

and now he is 2 steps behind:

1. not enough match play and practice on clay

2. very poor fitness given his own standards of the past


what worries me the most is the 2nd one. he is very vulnerable with considerably diminished fitness and a huge drop in his physicality. top players can beat him now.

even the 32 year old berlocq was hitting the ball harder than Rafa the other day.

and another reason I am worried is that it is this loss in fitness that is the leading cause of all his ailments and injuries. it could lead to more injuries.


in fact I am worried to death about his drop in fitness. he is huffing and puffing after just 40 minutes of play.

I am worried about it. there are endless way to be fit. you can swim, cycle, or do it in the gym.

his vo2 max is declining with age and he has not maintained it.




anyway as for Roger and his clay activity, he sees an opportunity out there and he is making a run for it. I don't blame him

he is very focused and he works on his fitness 2 times a day. that is how you dominate the sport even at age 34.