I am out on the road general.
Will reply to your post when I get home.
Great post general.
The deal with rafa is this:
He has significantly diminished fitness and his physicality.
It is going to be tough to beat the top players without his once supreme fitness and his physicality.
He can still take RG but will need 25-30 matches on clay---as you have accurately pointed out---and he will need some luck there this year.
Maybe finally Ferru can take Nole out there this year.
Rafa should be able to take down Ferru in a best of 5 set match at RG.
But first things first: Rafa desperately needs time on clay and he has to find a way to improve his fitness.
Ferrer is not taking Nole out at RG. No way. Ferrer shrinks against Federer and Novak, and only plays Rafa tough sometimes because they have a good relationship.
I think Federer is playing the extra clay tournaments because his game is grooved. With the way he is playing he knows he has another chance at the RG title if Rafa is subpar. I would rather Fed take it than Nole, because I seriously don't like Nole's attitude.