CAMELOT FANTASIES

Excellent and welcome thread.  Thanks Marv.

I'm "predicting" Nadal will hold #1 for about 43 weeks (until just after the US Open).  If he does well at Wimbledon, it will obviously be longer.  If he does poorly at the Australian Open or Roland Garros and some of the other Jan-June tournaments he might lose it between Wimbledon and the US Open.  But who the heck really knows.  As we've seen things can change in tennis in just 6 months.

Historically, Rafa seems to be on an approximate 14 month  on and 7 month off cycle.  So he's been on for over 8 months now.  If he continues his pattern of rather heavy play, even on hard courts, he may do well into the Australian Open, but I believe he then risks Roland Garros, similar to 2008-2009. 

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Roger Federer will be the player to take #1 again.  I think that those who have written him off (again), just don't realize that these days it is difficult to be at a high level for a long time.  He was amazing at age 30-31 where he won 9 titles between Nov 2011 and August 2012 (Basel - Cincinnati) and returned to World #1 for another 17 weeks. 

I think this year's lull was done purposely and that he'll come back with an all out attack in 2014.  He can gain points just about everywhere. Then, he will relax in 2015, and have a focused attack in 2016.  That's about as far as I can see.  Of course that is predicated on if he can have relatively good health during this time.   His back is a concern. As he gets older it is more difficult to manage and recover from incidents of spasms.  Of course there is a certainty that one day, he will not have what it takes to get back to the top anymore.  Many think that is the case now.  I'm not so sure.  We will see.

Unfortunately, I think Andy Murray is done winning majors and will have sporadic success in other big tournaments.  He said that he would never be able to top winning Wimbledon.  Nothing wrong with that.  But it indicates to me that he will have difficulty motivating himself enough to continue winning majors.  But we will see.  Maybe Lendl can help instill yet greater ambition. I sincerely hope Andy makes me wrong.  But to do that, I believe he absolutely has to improve his second serve. It's a major weakness in his arsenal and puts too much pressure on his 1st serve.

Djokovic is playing almost too consistently, but not well enough, if you know what I mean,  to have a great chance at #1 next year.  I think that these days, you have to have a few months strategic lull to allow you to gain points easier, make yourself the hunter instead of the hunted, easing pressure on yourself, and climb the ladder to #1.   It becomes very cyclical.  With his consistency, Novak has to up his play and confidence to 2011 levels to have a chance to gain much.   But if he gives himself a bit of a lull in 2014, then I think 2015 could be an excellent year for him.

I don't think the usual other top 10er's have any chance, except for perhaps del Potro, if he can schedule a bit better, stay healthy and somehow rise another level.

Other than that, it's only the excellent youngsters that have a chance to break into the top echelon.  But they have to avoid injury, become more consistent, and go up another level.  I'm talking about  Raonic, Carreno Busta, Janowicz, Dimitrov.  Again, they have to get into the top 10 first.  A big result at a major would do the trick of a couple of them. 

I know Carreno Busta is only ranked 66th and Dimitrov has fallen off to 28th, but they are only 22 and I still see great potential in both of them.  I think they could both stand to put a bit of meat on themselves. They are both 6'2 (188 cm) and yet weigh under 170 pounds (78 kg).   More targeted slow-twitch muscle fiber mass could obviously help their endurance.

I think that with a little more work on his backhand and return, Raonic can be a force at the hard court majors, and Janowicz is an obvious threat at Wimbledon especially and the others, but he needs to mature a bit and improve shot selection to gain more consistency.

I think these youngsters are still about 2-3 years away from making a huge impact, but perhaps it could come sooner for some.

I see no one else having a chance at the moment.

Respectfully,
masterclass