CAMELOT FANTASIES

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2015/05/20/Roland-Garros-Nadal-Brain-Game.aspx






ROLAND GARROS 2015 

Nadal's Empire Built On One Golden Number

Paris, France

by Craig O'Shannessy | 29.05.2015
 


Rafael Nadal celebrates winning his ninth Roland Garros crown in June 2014.

Dominance has a number, and it’s a lot lower than you might think.

Rafael Nadal has won nine titles in 10 previous appearances at Roland Garros, firmly cementing his place as the greatest men's winner at a single Grand Slam tournament the sport has ever known.

A deep-dive analysis of his Roland Garros history between 2005-2014 reveals much: He came into Paris this year boasting a supreme 98.5 per cent win rate from 66 victories and a solitary defeat. He had played 9,968 minutes at Roland Garros - time mostly spent mauling opponents with ferocious spin on the terre battue.

But those numbers do not come close to telling the whole story. His journey of 12,632 steps, or points played on the beaten earth at Roland Garros, reveals that his supremacy has a secret: It's built on very small margins.

Matches are comprised of sets, and Nadal has won 198 of them while relinquishing 20, for a 90.8 win percentage. It's impressive, but the separation is a little closer.

Nadal has won 1302 games over his previous 10 appearances, losing 693. That's a 65.2 win percentage, and as you can clearly tell, the authority he commands diminishes.

The building blocks of tennis are points, and this is where the real numbers of Nadal's conquests in Paris are revealed. Points tell the real story.

Nadal has won 7,160 points at Roland Garros, and the mythical aura that he has built on Court Philippe Chatrier has his opponents, and the tennis world, presuming he is also putting up invincible numbers in this critical metric. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Nadal has also lost 5,472 points at Roland Garros - that's a lot of points any way you slice it.

The 'King of Clay' has won 98.5 per cent of his matches, 90.8 per cent of his sets, 65.2 per cent of his games, but only 56.6 per cent of his points.

The reality of tennis is that you only need to tip a 50/50 battle around five or six per cent to rule the world. Players such as Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer, who have all finished No. 1 in the year-end Emirates ATP Rankings over many seasons, are typically winning right around 55 per cent of their points for their entire year.

Professional tennis is a game of very small margins, played over very great distances.

In the nine finals Nadal has won in Paris, his win percentage is a combined 54.2 per cent.

NadalServing

Nadal has served 184 aces and 92 double faults the past 10 years, for exactly a 2:1 ratio. He has made an incredibly high 71 per cent of his first serves, winning 72 per cent of the time. Those numbers are impressive, but his 58 per cent points won on second serves is from another planet.

Returning

This is the real engine room of Nadal's success at the French, applying an incredible amount of pressure every time his opponent steps up to serve. Nadal prefers to stand way back near the linesmen, closer to the back signage than the baseline, taking full swings to neutralise his opponent’s strength.

Nadal has won an incredible 41 per cent of his opponents' first-serve points, and 58 per cent of his opponents' second-serve points - the exact percentage as his own second serve. It does not matter who is hitting a second serve on the court, Nadal clearly has the edge.

Break Points

Nadal has converted 45 per cent of his break points over his career, which by comparison is much higher than Federer's 41 per cent, but that surges to a jaw-dropping 52 per cent for the Spaniard at Roland Garros. Opponents have converted 34 per cent of break points on Nadal's serve over his career, but at Roland Garros, that drops to 30 per cent.

Nadal has won 64 per cent of his service points in Paris, which is actually three per cent less than his career average of 67 per cent, but he has won 43 per cent of his return points on the red clay, which is one per cent better than his career average. It’s clear that it's the return game that grows an extra leg in Paris.

Nadal's nine Roland Garros titles command ultimate respect and his 56.6 per cent points won is the small margin that his empire is built upon.

Brain GameCraig O'Shannessy uses extensive tagging, metrics and formulas to uncover the patterns and percentages behind the game. Read more at www.braingametennis.com.