CAMELOT FANTASIES

Blockbuster match today folks! 
Djokovic vs. Federer in Dubai scheduled to start somewhere around 7 pm local Dubai Time -  4 pm CET, 3 pm. GT,  10 am  EST.

These matches between them have usually been quite good. 
They usually involve more than the minimum amount of sets with momentum switches.
That may change soon as Federer ages more, but at 32 and 1/2, he still looks in pretty good shape.

Recent play between the two:

Djokovic won both of their late 2013 matches, but they both went the distance, even though Federer had an off year for himself and was just starting to get back some form after his back problems earlier in the year.

Federer's last win against  Djokovic was in the 2012 Western & Southern Open in Cincinatti where he thrashed Novak in the first set with a bagel and hung on to win the second set in a tiebreaker and the match.  But that was when Roger was full of confidence as the #1 player in the world after winning Wimbledon beating Djokovic in the SF and Murray in the final, and a silver in the Olympics, whereas Djokovic had lost to Federer in the Wimbledon semi and lost to both Murray and Del Potro  in straight sets to miss an Olympic medal.

I think this will come down to who has the most confidence in their game and themselves right now.  I'm not sure Novak has entirely recovered from his Australian Open QF loss to Wawrinka.  I think that stung him a bit.  But Roger was also stung there in the SF by Rafa.  So they are both looking for a confidence boost in Dubai prior to heading off to the big masters tourneys in the USA.

Sometimes Novak comes out a little flat in big matches between the two, whereas Roger starts well.  I'm not so sure this 500 match qualifies as a big match though, except in terms of the match-up, so I expect Novak to be a bit sharper, and Roger perhaps not so keen.  But that's just a guess.

I'll project it as Nole in 3 sets, but anything could happen. It always depends on how they are feeling on the day.  Federer has to serve better early than he has in his last couple of matches.  His backhand has held up pretty well this tournament, but his forehand and serve have been a bit inconsistent.   Nole has looked sharp against his weaker opponents, but he missed a match courtesy of Mikhail Youzhny's illness and withdrawal.  But it only gave him an extra day rest, unlike his previous reception of a Fognini withdrawal at Roland Garros 2011 where he got 3 days rest and then lost to Federer to end his torrid 43 match streak.  So being the relatively fresher player of the two, I expect Novak to come out raring to go, and Roger with the late performance last night might not have as much edge early. 

So my call is Djokovic  6-3, 3-6, 7-5.   But who knows...

Thursday Federer's interview comments about the match (Djokovic unavailable because he was given a walkover by Youzhny)


Respectfully,
masterclass