CAMELOT FANTASIES

Quote from: Clay Death on February 12, 2014, 05:35:16 pm

Quote from: masterclass on February 12, 2014, 08:42:52 am

Nadal is like the hunted beast at Rafael Garros.  Everybody knows he is the favorite every year he plays.
He is one of the top 3 clay court players in history, maybe the best.
Best of 5 sets on clay is always on his racquet. The only thing that can stop him is himself if he overplays and gets himself hurt or exhausted.
He only needs about 15 matches on clay before RG to be ready.   I would not play Madrid if I were in his shoes.

Play Monte-Carlo the week of April 13-20.
Play Barcelona the following week - April 21-27. 
Skip Madrid the week of May 4-11. 
Play Rome the following week, May 12-18.
Rest a week and get to Roland Garros May 25th, fresh and ready to win his 9th French Open and 14th slam overall to tie him with the great Pete Sampras.

Before the clay season, he should limit his hard court play.  Play Indian Wells, singles only.  Withdraw from Miami and get back to Majorca and start practicing on the clay. 

If he does all of the above, he can make it to each of the clay finals, and probably win them all.   Then he might have enough gas to do better at Wimbledon.  If he overplays before RG, either on hard or clay,  I think he is risks getting beaten at RG.

Respectfully,
masterclass

great post general.

I could not agree more.



he is likely to get a few more match than just 15 going into that final at RG:


1. he will get 6 at RG (going into the final)
2. he may get 4 at rio open. I think he loses to ferru there while he gradually tries to increase intensity
3. he gets 5 at monte carlo: (he is going to take back monte carlo this year)
4. he will get 5 in Barcelona: he wins barcelona
5. he will get 5 in rome: he wins rome masters


i am not sure if he is going to skip Madrid. lets assume he does. that gives him a total of 25 matches on clay going into the final.


historically----before nadal's reign of terror at rg---winners there have needed to play 20 matches on clay on the average going into paris.


I changed the equation for nadal: we might as well count the 6 that he is going to play going into the final.



he is going to be very hard to stop in the final.

Well, now that time has passed, let's see how many clay matches Rafa will actually have..

General, I'm not going to count Rio, since he played 2 tournaments on hard court after that and didn't keep practicing on clay.  And his results on clay thereafter show that lack of preparation.

So that leaves us with:

Monte Carlo:  3
Barcelona: 3
Madrid: 5 (almost had to play here after MC and Barca fiascos)
Rome: 2 so far
RG:

So he has only 13 so far.  He must make it to the final in Rome, which will give him 2 or 3 wins more for 15 or 16 maximum.
That's a bit light historically going into Rafa Garros, but then as you say, he'll have 6 matches prior to the final, which will give him 21 or 22 matches going into the final at RG.  That should be enough as long as he makes it to the final.  He knows his way around RG.

Respectfully,
masterclass

you are 100% spot on general. now he is in a bit of a bind:

not sufficient practice on clay and certainly not enough match play on clay.

he just could not help himself. you and I have been saying this for years. he just wont let go of his infatuation with hard courts.

he also wont let go of his infatuation with a multitude of extracurricular activities.


he totally neglected clay and now finds himself behind the curve.


that is not my biggest worry:

my biggest worry is that he has neglected his fitness. you heard what general Tee said about rafa's performance in Miami. he said that Rafa looked slow and sluggish.

that is very true. he has looked slow and sluggish to me on clay also.

his movement is not there and he does not look lean and mean. there is some loss of lean muscle tissue also.

even the analysts have made a few remarks about the speed of his shots. they were not up to speed in monte carlo.

his shots lack the usual speed and the venom in rome also. that is what is enabling all the players to get to them so easily.


he is also making it easier for them by continuing to run around his backhand. they are able to read his shots better when he gives up the control of the center of the court.

all that being said, I think he is still the man to beat at RG. I don't see anybody being able to stop him there in the final. he needs to play only one great match and he can do that in the final.

it is a lot harder for the players to deal with him in a best of 5 sets matches on the red clay even when he is not quite himself. he usually finds a way.