Nadal is like the hunted beast at Rafael Garros. Everybody knows he is the favorite every year he plays.
He is one of the top 3 clay court players in history, maybe the best.
Best of 5 sets on clay is always on his racquet. The only thing that can stop him is himself if he overplays and gets himself hurt or exhausted.
He only needs about 15 matches on clay before RG to be ready. I would not play Madrid if I were in his shoes.
Play Monte-Carlo the week of April 13-20.
Play Barcelona the following week - April 21-27.
Skip Madrid the week of May 4-11.
Play Rome the following week, May 12-18.
Rest a week and get to Roland Garros May 25th, fresh and ready to win his 9th French Open and 14th slam overall to tie him with the great Pete Sampras.
Before the clay season, he should limit his hard court play. Play Indian Wells, singles only. Withdraw from Miami and get back to Majorca and start practicing on the clay.
If he does all of the above, he can make it to each of the clay finals, and probably win them all. Then he might have enough gas to do better at Wimbledon. If he overplays before RG, either on hard or clay, I think he is risks getting beaten at RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass
great post general.
I could not agree more.
he is likely to get a few more match than just 15 going into that final at RG:
1. he will get 6 at RG (going into the final)
2. he may get 4 at rio open. I think he loses to ferru there while he gradually tries to increase intensity
3. he gets 5 at monte carlo: (he is going to take back monte carlo this year)
4. he will get 5 in Barcelona: he wins barcelona
5. he will get 5 in rome: he wins rome masters
i am not sure if he is going to skip Madrid. lets assume he does. that gives him a total of 25 matches on clay going into the final.
historically----before nadal's reign of terror at rg---winners there have needed to play 20 matches on clay on the average going into paris.
I changed the equation for nadal: we might as well count the 6 that he is going to play going into the final.
he is going to be very hard to stop in the final.
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