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Nadal is like the hunted beast at Rafael Garros. Everybody knows he is the favorite every year he plays.
He is one of the top 3 clay court players in history, maybe the best.
Best of 5 sets on clay is always on his racquet. The only thing that can stop him is himself if he overplays and gets himself hurt or exhausted.
He only needs about 15 matches on clay before RG to be ready. I would not play Madrid if I were in his shoes.
Play Monte-Carlo the week of April 13-20.
Play Barcelona the following week - April 21-27.
Skip Madrid the week of May 4-11.
Play Rome the following week, May 12-18.
Rest a week and get to Roland Garros May 25th, fresh and ready to win his 9th French Open and 14th slam overall to tie him with the great Pete Sampras.
Before the clay season, he should limit his hard court play. Play Indian Wells, singles only. Withdraw from Miami and get back to Majorca and start practicing on the clay.
If he does all of the above, he can make it to each of the clay finals, and probably win them all. Then he might have enough gas to do better at Wimbledon. If he overplays before RG, either on hard or clay, I think he is risks getting beaten at RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass -
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Best Betting odds as of now:
Rafa - 4/5 - BWin, 19/20 - BetFair
Novak - 19/10 BWin
Juan - 22
Andy - 22
Stan - 25
Roger - 28
David - 33
Tomas - 65
Jo-Willy - 65
Everyone else over 100 to 1 shot.
Wawrinka is not a bad bet at 25 to 1. 100$ on Rafa, 40$ on Stan.
Respectfully,
masterclass -
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Nadal is like the hunted beast at Rafael Garros. Everybody knows he is the favorite every year he plays.
He is one of the top 3 clay court players in history, maybe the best.
Best of 5 sets on clay is always on his racquet. The only thing that can stop him is himself if he overplays and gets himself hurt or exhausted.
He only needs about 15 matches on clay before RG to be ready. I would not play Madrid if I were in his shoes.
Play Monte-Carlo the week of April 13-20.
Play Barcelona the following week - April 21-27.
Skip Madrid the week of May 4-11.
Play Rome the following week, May 12-18.
Rest a week and get to Roland Garros May 25th, fresh and ready to win his 9th French Open and 14th slam overall to tie him with the great Pete Sampras.
Before the clay season, he should limit his hard court play. Play Indian Wells, singles only. Withdraw from Miami and get back to Majorca and start practicing on the clay.
If he does all of the above, he can make it to each of the clay finals, and probably win them all. Then he might have enough gas to do better at Wimbledon. If he overplays before RG, either on hard or clay, I think he is risks getting beaten at RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass
[/quote
I have to get Rafa's personal email and send this information to him.
It sounds perfectly well thought and logical. -
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Best Betting odds as of now:
Rafa - 4/5 - BWin, 19/20 - BetFair
Novak - 19/10 BWin
Juan - 22
Andy - 22
Stan - 25
Roger - 28
David - 33
Tomas - 65
Jo-Willy - 65
Everyone else over 100 to 1 shot.
Wawrinka is not a bad bet at 25 to 1. 100$ on Rafa, 40$ on Stan.
Respectfully,
masterclass
[/quote
masterclass,
How do odds work? What does Nadal's and Djokovic's odds mean? I have never understood how odds work. -
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Lady TT, if you hear about someone being bet as even money, that is 1-1 odds. It usually means they have a great chance of winning compared to the rest of the field.
From a monetary point of view it means for every dollar (or whatever currency), you put in, if your pick wins, you get your dollar back plus another dollar. Bet a dollar get back a total of 2 dollars. 2 to 1 or 2/1, means put in a dollar and you get a total of 3 dollars back, your original dollar plus 2 dollars.
So in Rafa's case at 4/5 it means bet 5 dollars and get 9 dollars back, your 5 plus 4.
Djokovic - 19/10 - bet 10 and get 19 back plus your original 10 for a total of 29.
Stan - 25/1 - For every dollar you bet, you get back 25 plus your dollar. So a $40 bet on Stan would return you $1000 plus your original $40.
Now how do they decide what the odds are? Usually the bookies or some authority determine the starting odds. But then as money is bet, the odds change, reflecting the money bet per contestant, as compared to the total pool.
In Thoroughbred Horse racing, the sport of kings, I recall the great Secretariat going off at 1/10 odds, an overwhelming favorite to win the Triple Crown at the Belmont Stakes, the third and final leg of the Thoroughbred USA Triple Crown races. He paid $2.20 for a 2 dollar bet to win in his thrilling record breaking romp. Or if you had bet $10 you would get $11 dollars back, 1 dollar plus your original 10.
Here is that race for your viewing pleasure. Set view settings for HD.
I'll never forget the announcer exclaiming:
"He's moving like a tremendous machine..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfCMtaNiMDM
Respectfully,
masterclass -
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Nadal is like the hunted beast at Rafael Garros. Everybody knows he is the favorite every year he plays.
He is one of the top 3 clay court players in history, maybe the best.
Best of 5 sets on clay is always on his racquet. The only thing that can stop him is himself if he overplays and gets himself hurt or exhausted.
He only needs about 15 matches on clay before RG to be ready. I would not play Madrid if I were in his shoes.
Play Monte-Carlo the week of April 13-20.
Play Barcelona the following week - April 21-27.
Skip Madrid the week of May 4-11.
Play Rome the following week, May 12-18.
Rest a week and get to Roland Garros May 25th, fresh and ready to win his 9th French Open and 14th slam overall to tie him with the great Pete Sampras.
Before the clay season, he should limit his hard court play. Play Indian Wells, singles only. Withdraw from Miami and get back to Majorca and start practicing on the clay.
If he does all of the above, he can make it to each of the clay finals, and probably win them all. Then he might have enough gas to do better at Wimbledon. If he overplays before RG, either on hard or clay, I think he is risks getting beaten at RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass
great post general.
I could not agree more.
he is likely to get a few more match than just 15 going into that final at RG:
1. he will get 6 at RG (going into the final)
2. he may get 4 at rio open. I think he loses to ferru there while he gradually tries to increase intensity
3. he gets 5 at monte carlo: (he is going to take back monte carlo this year)
4. he will get 5 in Barcelona: he wins barcelona
5. he will get 5 in rome: he wins rome masters
i am not sure if he is going to skip Madrid. lets assume he does. that gives him a total of 25 matches on clay going into the final.
historically----before nadal's reign of terror at rg---winners there have needed to play 20 matches on clay on the average going into paris.
I changed the equation for nadal: we might as well count the 6 that he is going to play going into the final.
he is going to be very hard to stop in the final. -
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Lady TT, if you hear about someone being bet as even money, that is 1-1 odds. It usually means they have a great chance of winning compared to the rest of the field.
From a monetary point of view it means for every dollar (or whatever currency), you put in, if your pick wins, you get your dollar back plus another dollar. Bet a dollar get back a total of 2 dollars. 2 to 1 or 2/1, means put in a dollar and you get a total of 3 dollars back, your original dollar plus 2 dollars.
So in Rafa's case at 4/5 it means bet 5 dollars and get 9 dollars back, your 5 plus 4.
Djokovic - 19/10 - bet 10 and get 19 back plus your original 10 for a total of 29.
Stan - 25/1 - For every dollar you bet, you get back 25 plus your dollar. So a $40 bet on Stan would return you $1000 plus your original $40.
Now how do they decide what the odds are? Usually the bookies or some authority determine the starting odds. But then as money is bet, the odds change, reflecting the money bet per contestant, as compared to the total pool.
In Thoroughbred Horse racing, the sport of kings, I recall the great Secretariat going off at 1/10 odds, an overwhelming favorite to win the Triple Crown at the Belmont Stakes, the third and final leg of the Thoroughbred USA Triple Crown races. He paid $2.20 for a 2 dollar bet to win in his thrilling record breaking romp. Or if you had bet $10 you would get $11 dollars back, 1 dollar plus your original 10.
Here is that race for your viewing pleasure. Set view settings for HD.
I'll never forget the announcer exclaiming:
"He's moving like a tremendous machine..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfCMtaNiMDM
Respectfully,
masterclass
Thank you so much. It's still a little confusing figuring out how much you would win, math phobia and all. But, it sounds like the favorite would pay less and longshots would pay more.
If I'm understanding this, Nadal wouldn't pay much considering he's a favorite, but Nole would pay more if you bet on him, and Stan would be off the chart.
I used to go to the horse races and put down cheapie bets. It was exciting even though I didn't know what I was doing.
It seems that if you want to gamble on sports or whatever, you really need to know what you're doing. Too hard, considering injuries and all, but at least I have a better understanding.
Thanks again. -
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anybody see this? Federer believe that he and wawrinka will challenge nadal for the title at RG:
http://www.stevegtennis.com/2014/04/federer-believes-he-and-wawrinka-will-challenge-nadal-and-djokovic-for-the-french-open-title/
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this is the big one sports fans.
I am all fired up already. -
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this is the big one sports fans.
I am all fired up already.
I kind of figured that. I started laughing what I saw the thread.
Do you think Rafa will be ready in time? -
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Many are asking who are the favorites to win Roland Garros this year.
Don't delude yourselves.
There is only 1, that's right, ONE, favorite to win at Roland Garros.
If you don't know who that is, I'm not telling.
The rest will be either fighting for the runner up spot, or getting in good ground work preparing for Wimbledon, or looking for a bigger paycheck than usual in whichever round they lose.
Respectfully,
masterclass -
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Nadal is like the hunted beast at Rafael Garros. Everybody knows he is the favorite every year he plays.
He is one of the top 3 clay court players in history, maybe the best.
Best of 5 sets on clay is always on his racquet. The only thing that can stop him is himself if he overplays and gets himself hurt or exhausted.
He only needs about 15 matches on clay before RG to be ready. I would not play Madrid if I were in his shoes.
Play Monte-Carlo the week of April 13-20.
Play Barcelona the following week - April 21-27.
Skip Madrid the week of May 4-11.
Play Rome the following week, May 12-18.
Rest a week and get to Roland Garros May 25th, fresh and ready to win his 9th French Open and 14th slam overall to tie him with the great Pete Sampras.
Before the clay season, he should limit his hard court play. Play Indian Wells, singles only. Withdraw from Miami and get back to Majorca and start practicing on the clay.
If he does all of the above, he can make it to each of the clay finals, and probably win them all. Then he might have enough gas to do better at Wimbledon. If he overplays before RG, either on hard or clay, I think he is risks getting beaten at RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass
great post general.
I could not agree more.
he is likely to get a few more match than just 15 going into that final at RG:
1. he will get 6 at RG (going into the final)
2. he may get 4 at rio open. I think he loses to ferru there while he gradually tries to increase intensity
3. he gets 5 at monte carlo: (he is going to take back monte carlo this year)
4. he will get 5 in Barcelona: he wins barcelona
5. he will get 5 in rome: he wins rome masters
i am not sure if he is going to skip Madrid. lets assume he does. that gives him a total of 25 matches on clay going into the final.
historically----before nadal's reign of terror at rg---winners there have needed to play 20 matches on clay on the average going into paris.
I changed the equation for nadal: we might as well count the 6 that he is going to play going into the final.
he is going to be very hard to stop in the final.
Well, now that time has passed, let's see how many clay matches Rafa will actually have..
General, I'm not going to count Rio, since he played 2 tournaments on hard court after that and didn't keep practicing on clay. And his results on clay thereafter show that lack of preparation.
So that leaves us with:
Monte Carlo: 3
Barcelona: 3
Madrid: 5 (almost had to play here after MC and Barca fiascos)
Rome: 2 so far
RG:
So he has only 13 so far. He must make it to the final in Rome, which will give him 2 or 3 wins more for 15 or 16 maximum.
That's a bit light historically going into Rafa Garros, but then as you say, he'll have 6 matches prior to the final, which will give him 21 or 22 matches going into the final at RG. That should be enough as long as he makes it to the final. He knows his way around RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass
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Um guys,I don't know. While I am not that good on the technical aspects, Rafa seems to be pretty far from a lock this year.
So far, no one looks very good. This has been a patchy clay court season. -
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All true Lady TT. Even if Rafa hasn't impressed, no one else has either. So in best of 5 on clay, he is still the favorite to win, but that doesn't mean he will, even though he has only 1 loss there in many many years.
If someone is in his draw that has good endurance and plays at a good level prior to the QF, and catches Rafa on one of his "off" days, they can beat him, even in best of 5, because he is light on matches and not in top form yet.
But I think if he can make it to the semifinal stage, he'll have 20 matches on clay under his belt and will be difficult to beat.
But there is another factor if he makes the final. The pressure will build to take his 14th major to tie Sampras. We can't dismiss it.
Respectfully,
masterclass -
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Nadal is like the hunted beast at Rafael Garros. Everybody knows he is the favorite every year he plays.
He is one of the top 3 clay court players in history, maybe the best.
Best of 5 sets on clay is always on his racquet. The only thing that can stop him is himself if he overplays and gets himself hurt or exhausted.
He only needs about 15 matches on clay before RG to be ready. I would not play Madrid if I were in his shoes.
Play Monte-Carlo the week of April 13-20.
Play Barcelona the following week - April 21-27.
Skip Madrid the week of May 4-11.
Play Rome the following week, May 12-18.
Rest a week and get to Roland Garros May 25th, fresh and ready to win his 9th French Open and 14th slam overall to tie him with the great Pete Sampras.
Before the clay season, he should limit his hard court play. Play Indian Wells, singles only. Withdraw from Miami and get back to Majorca and start practicing on the clay.
If he does all of the above, he can make it to each of the clay finals, and probably win them all. Then he might have enough gas to do better at Wimbledon. If he overplays before RG, either on hard or clay, I think he is risks getting beaten at RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass
great post general.
I could not agree more.
he is likely to get a few more match than just 15 going into that final at RG:
1. he will get 6 at RG (going into the final)
2. he may get 4 at rio open. I think he loses to ferru there while he gradually tries to increase intensity
3. he gets 5 at monte carlo: (he is going to take back monte carlo this year)
4. he will get 5 in Barcelona: he wins barcelona
5. he will get 5 in rome: he wins rome masters
i am not sure if he is going to skip Madrid. lets assume he does. that gives him a total of 25 matches on clay going into the final.
historically----before nadal's reign of terror at rg---winners there have needed to play 20 matches on clay on the average going into paris.
I changed the equation for nadal: we might as well count the 6 that he is going to play going into the final.
he is going to be very hard to stop in the final.
Well, now that time has passed, let's see how many clay matches Rafa will actually have..
General, I'm not going to count Rio, since he played 2 tournaments on hard court after that and didn't keep practicing on clay. And his results on clay thereafter show that lack of preparation.
So that leaves us with:
Monte Carlo: 3
Barcelona: 3
Madrid: 5 (almost had to play here after MC and Barca fiascos)
Rome: 2 so far
RG:
So he has only 13 so far. He must make it to the final in Rome, which will give him 2 or 3 wins more for 15 or 16 maximum.
That's a bit light historically going into Rafa Garros, but then as you say, he'll have 6 matches prior to the final, which will give him 21 or 22 matches going into the final at RG. That should be enough as long as he makes it to the final. He knows his way around RG.
Respectfully,
masterclass
you are 100% spot on general. now he is in a bit of a bind:
not sufficient practice on clay and certainly not enough match play on clay.
he just could not help himself. you and I have been saying this for years. he just wont let go of his infatuation with hard courts.
he also wont let go of his infatuation with a multitude of extracurricular activities.
he totally neglected clay and now finds himself behind the curve.
that is not my biggest worry:
my biggest worry is that he has neglected his fitness. you heard what general Tee said about rafa's performance in Miami. he said that Rafa looked slow and sluggish.
that is very true. he has looked slow and sluggish to me on clay also.
his movement is not there and he does not look lean and mean. there is some loss of lean muscle tissue also.
even the analysts have made a few remarks about the speed of his shots. they were not up to speed in monte carlo.
his shots lack the usual speed and the venom in rome also. that is what is enabling all the players to get to them so easily.
he is also making it easier for them by continuing to run around his backhand. they are able to read his shots better when he gives up the control of the center of the court.
all that being said, I think he is still the man to beat at RG. I don't see anybody being able to stop him there in the final. he needs to play only one great match and he can do that in the final.
it is a lot harder for the players to deal with him in a best of 5 sets matches on the red clay even when he is not quite himself. he usually finds a way. -