CAMELOT FANTASIES

Kei Nishikori upsets Federer in Miami, 3-6, 7-5, 6-4.

This was a welcome surprise, or perhaps not so much of one from at least Kei's point of view.  Kei looks much stronger this year (maybe we can thank Michael Chang for that), has a better serve, and has been playing consistently well. He did the same in this match, playing at a consistent very good level, showing a lot of quickness and aggression from all parts of the court, hung in there with considerable fortitude in the crucial stages, and took advantage when presented with the opportunity.  It was an excellent match for him and well deserved victory.

Was it surprising from Federer's point of view?  He should have been very happy with his play off the ground in the first set. It was superb. He was hitting forehands with pop and directing his backhands at will, and his return was as good as I've seen it in years. His play needed to be that good to win the first set, because his serving, the first serve in particular, was rather startlingly atrocious considering his dominating performance on serve so far in the tournament, not being broken, and moreover allowing only a total of 18 points by his opponents in 3 matches. 

Federer's first service in percentage in the first set was a woeful 38%, so one of his prime weapons definitely wasn't firing. This is the weapon over which a player has the most control, and to not have it at one's beck and call is most unsettling for a player like Federer. Even so, he did not allow it's sudden demise to unsettle him and the rest of his game too much during the first set, but as the match wore on, even though his service marginally improved, it was missing in action numerous times, especially when he most needed it. 

After being up a set and a break to be within 2 games of the match, it looked like Roger's frustration with his service began to take its toll when his ground play finally began to crumble as Nishikori continued his assault with great success and Federer began shanking balls and making unforced errors with abandon especially on the heavily pressured backhand wing. Federer was broken back and then finally broken again by Kei to seal the second set 7-5.  All in all, Federer's serve was broken 3 times in a single set, when he had only faced a single break point in the 3 previous matches. 

In the third set, Federer was hanging in there, but was always under fire from Kei, and looked rather disconsolate at times with his play, the conditions, perhaps as a result of Nishikori's fortitude or unwillingness to fold under pressure from the end of the second set. Federer couldn't begin to fashion a break, whilst always in danger of presenting one to Nishikori. Finally, at the business end of the set and match, Federer succumbed one more time on serve after going down love-40. He saved two match points, but was helpless to return a final sharply angled shot to his beleaguered backhand wing at the last.

As usual in a case like this, people will wonder and ask how and why Federer's service and ultimately his play failed him after doing so well the rest of the tournament.  One might say it was Federer's first night match in Miami, or perhaps it was much chillier than his day matches, as evidenced by Federer wearing his Nike sweater vest during warmups, and maybe Federer couldn't get the proper rhythm and fluidity on his service motion, though he did crush a few serves here and there up to 129 mph. Some may use his age as an excuse, saying he's bound to put in a stinker more often these days.  Still, one can't be certain which thing or things might have so suddenly affected one of his prime weapons. 

Additionally, he obviously was faced with a player who was very aggressive, played well, and didn't collapse under pressure. Was he affected by the notion that he might have to play both Djokovic and Nadal in Miami's slower conditions?  Was he already thinking about getting back to Europe and helping Team Suisse in their Davis Cup mission this year, and joining his teammates in what was already acknowledged to be one of the year's major goals by his confederate Wawrinka? 

Who knows for sure?  Maybe Federer, maybe his team.  In the bigger perspective, his play has improved this year heading into the clay season. He seems more settled with his new racquet, and has produced some amazing tennis already to be in 3 finals, and winning the title in Dubai.

All one can say is commiserations to him, his team and supporters, and congratulations to Kei, his team and fans and good luck to both players as the year goes on.

Respectfully,
masterclass