I think he starts to turn it around here general. This demise can't keep going on, and not on clay It is indeed the "wellspring from which he flows". I expect those forehand topspin cyclones of death to start finding their mark. Why not here? He's won 8 of these, more than anyone else in the history. We will see.
Ferrer beat him last year in the QF, and they are set to meet again there if they both get that far. Somehow, I have a feeling No1e will take a bit of a break here after the tough IW - Miami, and charge his batteries for RG.
Edit: Yes, his lack of confidence is distressing. But as Uncle Toni said, he might only need one good set of circumstances to turn that around. If he can somehow, win 4 matches and make it to a MC final, then I think he has a good chance. It probably won't be easy, but when has Rafa done things the easy way?
Nadal follows through on his forehand cyclone of death - Monte Carlo 2008

Respectfully,
masterclass
Great post general.
The problem is lack of fitness, lack of match play, and lack of practice.
I don't know how you overcome all 3 factors in such a short period of time.
He is a top pro. He would have gone to Casablanca if he wanted this bad enough.
Tony is right about one thing anyway: he needs luck this time around.