CAMELOT FANTASIES

Don't be surprised if Mr. Murray, OBE, doesn't play in the Australian Open.  His match against the #2129 in the world, Mousa Shanan Zayed told us nothing.  His match against #40 Florian Mayer told us more.  Yes, Mayer played well, but Murray didn't appear fit to play in a seriously competitive best of 3 match, much less best of 5. 

This is hardly surprising given that he had back surgery and had 3-4 months off.  Training is one thing, match play is another.  The normal pattern for return following injury and time off is that it takes roughly twice as long to return to one's best form than the amount of time off.  And that supposes that one is completely recovered from the injury.  It was worrying that his service speed dropped so much during the latter part of the match.  One doesn't know if he may have strained his back or if he was protecting it.

If Mr. Murray's back is completely well, and that is by no means a given, then as I've said elsewhere, one would expect that he might return to his best form somewhere between June and August.  I would consider him to be very fortunate to win a title prior to that unless he drops down in class to playing more 250 events.

But the question here is whether he'll give it a go in the Australian Open, or not.  He said previously that he would only play if he were 100% ready.  But the AO comes a little earlier this year - Jan 13.  It's going to be tough.  Maybe he'll take a wildcard in Sydney or Auckland, but the top players (other than Ferrer), rarely enter an event the week prior to a major.  Frankly, I would be surprised to see him trying to play himself into some kind of shape in the Australian Open.

I think he should take a page out of Nadal's book last year, not travel down under, and skip the Australian Open.
The way to go might be South America as he might get more work on his ground game on clay, but since the clay is not his forte, he might opt toward going to North America and playing in Memphis, perhaps Delray Beach, and then Acapulco (on hard court this year), before going to the Masters 1000's in Indian Wells and Miami.  Let's see what he ends up  doing.  Most of all let's wish him a continued good recovery with his back. 

Respectfully,
masterclass

To be honest, I'll be greatly surprised if Andy skips AO so I fully expect him to play. The only reason for him to not play if he's still having issues with the back and needs more recovery time, but judging by some of his comments of late, it doesn't seem that way. So he should be ready though perhaps won't go too deep but then again, you never know. He can totally use the first 3/4 rounds for match practice and get ready for the 2nd week once he feels more in shape. It's going to be tough but then again, that's what is required at the moment. If he's not carrying an injury then he must play everything tournament that he's originally meant to play. That's only how he is going to get match fit and that's only what he needs right now.