CAMELOT FANTASIES

I couldn't agree more general.  I think it's time to call it a day on the hard courts.  He's had a lot of success there in the last year, but you can't cheat the odds so long. 

"Clay is the wellspring from which his game flows." 

Now I'm not in Rafa's camp, but if it were me, here is what I would do.  I think I would withdraw from Miami.  Other than last year's anomaly, nothing good in Nadal's career came from playing the late winter, early spring hard courts.  They have been the source of many injuries and his later problems.  Use the time between now and Miami to completely rest and recuperate any remaining back problems.  Then when it looks good, get on his Manacor clay courts (not his practice hard court abomination), and get that needed foundation under himself before playing Monte-Carlo.

If he doesn't do this, I think he'll be facing much of what Federer did last year.  Poorer play caused by compensating and trying to protect his injury, followed by declining confidence levels leading to bad decisions, leading to more poor play and more lack of confidence.  He needs to halt this spiral in its tracks now.

His serve is inconsistent at best.  He did serve some 120 mph first serves yesterday, but had only a couple of aces.  His second serve was very returnable.
But the serve has hardly been his forte anyway.  What is hurting him is his return.  It is woeful.  He's again returning from the fence, maybe he should stand in the desert.  This is just a big signal to his opponent that he has no confidence.  The return comes back short so many times with nothing on it and his waiting to be punished.  But now this trend is carrying to his ground strokes.  He's fallen into that pattern of running around his backhand and opening up his forehand side because of the lack of confidence or power in his backhand.   Dolgopolov took full advantage of that yesterday and spanked so many balls with angle on Rafa's forehand side beyond Rafa's reach that I lost count.  Rafa needs to get out on the practice court and just hit backhands for about 3 or 4 hours per day once he is healthy again.   

I'll stop now.  I'm sure general Hercules could come up with other things that need sorting out.

As far as the tournament goes, this upset in the top half adds to the big list of upsets in the bottom half and will send another shock-wave throughout.
I wouldn't be surprised to see another upset of one of the big guns remaining in the top half.   

Tommy Haas plays Roger Federer next.  Raonic plays Mr. Murray, OBE, and Spartan Stan Wawrinka plays Kevin Anderson.
It starts to get very interesting now for these players with Nadal out of the picture.  It's one less hurdle to climb to get to the final.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Rafa played like crap for a second match in a row and deservedly lost this time. Happy for Alex, one of my favorite players.

Now I am wondering if he is going to go to Miami and win some points back. Monte Carlo starts on April 13 which is 34 days from now. If he chooses to play Miami and let's say reaches the Final, he will have less than 2 weeks before Monte Carlo. Interesting decision coming up in the next couple of days.

He may play a few matches, but not go all out, just for the points. I think that's what I'd do.

I couldn't agree more general.  I think it's time to call it a day on the hard courts.  He's had a lot of success there in the last year, but you can't cheat the odds so long. 

"Clay is the wellspring from which his game flows." 

Now I'm not in Rafa's camp, but if it were me, here is what I would do.  I think I would withdraw from Miami.  Other than last year's anomaly, nothing good in Nadal's career came from playing the late winter, early spring hard courts.  They have been the source of many injuries and his later problems.  Use the time between now and Miami to completely rest and recuperate any remaining back problems.  Then when it looks good, get on his Manacor clay courts (not his practice hard court abomination), and get that needed foundation under himself before playing Monte-Carlo.

If he doesn't do this, I think he'll be facing much of what Federer did last year.  Poorer play caused by compensating and trying to protect his injury, followed by declining confidence levels leading to bad decisions, leading to more poor play and more lack of confidence.  He needs to halt this spiral in its tracks now.

His serve is inconsistent at best.  He did serve some 120 mph first serves yesterday, but had only a couple of aces.  His second serve was very returnable.
But the serve has hardly been his forte anyway.  What is hurting him is his return.  It is woeful.  He's again returning from the fence, maybe he should stand in the desert.  This is just a big signal to his opponent that he has no confidence.  The return comes back short so many times with nothing on it and his waiting to be punished.  But now this trend is carrying to his ground strokes.  He's fallen into that pattern of running around his backhand and opening up his forehand side because of the lack of confidence or power in his backhand.   Dolgopolov took full advantage of that yesterday and spanked so many balls with angle on Rafa's forehand side beyond Rafa's reach that I lost count.  Rafa needs to get out on the practice court and just hit backhands for about 3 or 4 hours per day once he is healthy again.   

I'll stop now.  I'm sure general Hercules could come up with other things that need sorting out.

As far as the tournament goes, this upset in the top half adds to the big list of upsets in the bottom half and will send another shock-wave throughout.
I wouldn't be surprised to see another upset of one of the big guns remaining in the top half.   

Tommy Haas plays Roger Federer next.  Raonic plays Mr. Murray, OBE, and Spartan Stan Wawrinka plays Kevin Anderson.
It starts to get very interesting now for these players with Nadal out of the picture.  It's one less hurdle to climb to get to the final.

Respectfully,
masterclass

that is a perfect post. you could not be more spot on if you tried.


this is not rocket science and his camp should be figuring this out by now. basically he gave all he had last year. he delivered the world a year for the ages. 10 titles and #1 ranking that included 2 slams on 2 completely different surfaces.

but the point is that he went all out on the hard courts until he snatched the u.s. open. something had to give so his level started to drop rather significantly after the u.s. open.

fatigue is cumulative for him because of his demanding style of play. he continued his hard court activity which, in turn, continued to exact a toll on his body which would finally quit on him in Melbourne. sooner or later something had to give.


and then he goes farting around with nole in south America that nets him $10-$12 million. the cost there was much needed rest at home and the resumption of serious training at home. so he basically shows up with less than optimal preparation and even some accumulated fatigue. he never let the last season end.

so that $10 million meant a much more serious opportunity cost: he lost a slam which he could have easily won. and now his body is in dire straits still because he would not let the last season end.

he is not hurting for money. his 8 RG crowns are worth nearly $1 billion over the next 40 years.


and as you have pointed out, this is not a new revelation. this has been happening to him over and over again his entire career. he played and won more matches on the hard courts than anyone alive or dead in 2008.

so what happened? he took home the Australian Open but he was nearly dead by the time Oz ended. instead of going home and resting and recuperating, he went to Rotterdam where his body would finally quit on him. he had to finish the final against andy murray on 1 leg.

they offered him a massive appearance fee in Rotterdam so he felt obliged to go take it then try to put on a show for them. he worked way too hard for his wins there while already having been depleted of his mental and physical capital.

he does not know when to back off.

only clay can fix all that ails him now. his ground game is shot now as a result of his back. the bad back wont let him get into any kind of rhythm.

clay is forgiving and soft. he has to go get on it asap after a few days of rest. and even when resting you never take a day off in this sport. never.

vilas, lendl, and muster never did.

lance Armstrong never missed a single day of training. even after his heavy chemo treatments he would go on 50-60 mile training rides.

brian Gottfried practiced for 6 hours on his wedding day.

Lots of good matches today. I am really hoping they will call it a day at work any moment and let us go home because of the snow storm situation. We are likely to get 15-20cm today so the commute will be abysmal.

With both Mr. Murray, OBE's,  and Spartan Stan's departure, there are now only 2 Top 10 ranked players left in the draw before the quarter finals.  Roger Federer is through to the QF with an excellent straight set performance versus Tommy Haas who played fairly well in a losing effort, but couldn't win enough of the big points.  Novak Djokovic will be taking the court later with Marin Cilic, to whom he has never lost.

Andy lost a tough one, but Raonic played well in the final two sets to snatch it.  Milos was misfiring in the first set, especially on his normally reliable forehand wing, which might have made it a bit easier for Andy to win the set.  I still don't think Andy is quite right with his back, especially when stretching to his backhand side.  There was a point where he doubled over and clutched at his left hip where I thought he seemed in real pain. Hopefully it is nothing serious, but thereafter, I didn't see him trying as hard when going wide to his backhand.  Also, as the match went on, Andy's 1st serve weakened significantly, and we won't talk about the 2nd serve.  Milos, on the other hand looked stronger as the match went on, and in the final game produced aces with about 140 mph speeds, and he also shored up his forehand.  Raonic will face the streaky Dolgopolov, who blew away the Fog, in the top bracket of the quarterfinals.  I think Andy is capable of making a better showing in Miami, but as I said at the beginning of the year, I don't see him being near his best form until somewhere between the start of the grass season and the US Open hard court series, that is if he stays healthy. 

Spartan Stan lost a hard fought 1st set in a meek tiebreaker to Kevin Anderson, after late in the set appeared to suffer a mishap with his back.  He went off the court to have the trainer work on it, came back, was a bit tentative at first as the back seemed to be still affecting him, but later seemed to be feeling better, perhaps as some pain killers took hold and took the second set.  However, the effort seemed to be too much for him, and Anderson served very well in the 3rd set, while Stan just didn't have it, and Kevin took it easily.  His reward?  A meeting with Roger Federer in the quarterfinal.

The bottom half has seen Ernests Gubis defeat Bautista-Agut in 3 sets, John Isner beating Verdasco also in 3 sets, and the last Frenchman remaining in the draw, Julian Benneteau, straight setting the last Spaniard in the draw, Feliciano Lopez.  Bennetteau will play the winner of the Djokovic-Cilic match, while Isner will face Gulbis.

Which players do you see taking the men's single's quarterfinals?

Oh, by the way, Federer is one of the two last remaining single's player, along with Isner, also alive in the doubles as of now.  He and Stan are scheduled to play the #4 seeds, Paes and Stepanek in the doubles QF later on in this evening, but I'm not sure if Stan will be able to play.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Spot on general.  Doubles helps with focus, reflexes, returns, placement, and net play when done properly.

And Federer/Wawrinka have made it to the doubles semis defeating the #4 seeds, Paes/Stepanek in the super tiebreaker.  So it is guaranteed that an American pair will be in the final, as the doubles #1 ranked Bryan brothers will now play Isner/Querrey, while Federer/Wawrinka will play the #2 doubles seeds,  Peya/Soares. 

Note that there have only been 2 men in the history of Indian Wells (since 1976) that have won the singles and doubles title in the same year.  Jim Courier did it in 1991 with Javier Sanchez, and Boris Becker did it in 1988 with Guy Forget.  Can this be the third time it happens?

Novak Djokovic took the final QF spot with a come from behind 3 set victory over Marin Cilic for his 8th win without a defeat against him.  I still don't like his level, but it has been sufficient to get him through his fairly easy draw so far where none of his 3 opponents ever had a victory over him and he only played one seeded player, #24 Cilic.  His next match will see him play another unseeded player, Julian Benneteau, who has only a single victory over Novak in 6 attempts, which was at Indian Wells in 2006.  I'm afraid he might be undercooked when he gets to the semifinal and has to play either big serving Isner or the mercurial Gulbis, but we will see.  If Isner and Djokovic get through, we will see a rematch of their 2012 semifinal, where Isner prevailed in the deciding set tiebreaker.

So the quarterfinals are set.  I'll bold my picks. 

[28] Dolgopolov vs. [10] Raonic

[17] Anderson vs. [7] Federer

[12] Isner vs. [20] Gulbis

Benneteau vs. [2] Djokovic

Isner-Gulbis should be the most interesting match. Gulbis has a slight edge in the H2H, 2-1, but I'll give the edge to Isner on these courts. The ball flies through the air fast, especially during a hot sunny day, which allows the big servers to do their thing, but the court is slow and high bouncing, which allows even the worst movers to balls it off the ground that they normally would not.  And Isner can bring his serve down from the clouds and make it bounce higher and as fast as anyone left in the draw.  I pick Raonic for similar reasons.  Only the last quarter does not feature a big server, so I'll pick the better retriever, but Djokovic has to be steadier than he has been so far.

Respectfully,
masterclass

I would personally like to see USA's Isner vs. Canada's Raonic in the final.  What a blast and lift that would be for North American tennis! 

But as long as the final has great tennis played, it doesn't matter to me who is there. 

Respectfully,
masterclass

The H2H between Isner and Raonic swings in Isner's favour though and I don't think it will change if Isner is fit and fresh.