CAMELOT FANTASIES

I couldn't agree more general.  I think it's time to call it a day on the hard courts.  He's had a lot of success there in the last year, but you can't cheat the odds so long. 

"Clay is the wellspring from which his game flows." 

Now I'm not in Rafa's camp, but if it were me, here is what I would do.  I think I would withdraw from Miami.  Other than last year's anomaly, nothing good in Nadal's career came from playing the late winter, early spring hard courts.  They have been the source of many injuries and his later problems.  Use the time between now and Miami to completely rest and recuperate any remaining back problems.  Then when it looks good, get on his Manacor clay courts (not his practice hard court abomination), and get that needed foundation under himself before playing Monte-Carlo.

If he doesn't do this, I think he'll be facing much of what Federer did last year.  Poorer play caused by compensating and trying to protect his injury, followed by declining confidence levels leading to bad decisions, leading to more poor play and more lack of confidence.  He needs to halt this spiral in its tracks now.

His serve is inconsistent at best.  He did serve some 120 mph first serves yesterday, but had only a couple of aces.  His second serve was very returnable.
But the serve has hardly been his forte anyway.  What is hurting him is his return.  It is woeful.  He's again returning from the fence, maybe he should stand in the desert.  This is just a big signal to his opponent that he has no confidence.  The return comes back short so many times with nothing on it and his waiting to be punished.  But now this trend is carrying to his ground strokes.  He's fallen into that pattern of running around his backhand and opening up his forehand side because of the lack of confidence or power in his backhand.   Dolgopolov took full advantage of that yesterday and spanked so many balls with angle on Rafa's forehand side beyond Rafa's reach that I lost count.  Rafa needs to get out on the practice court and just hit backhands for about 3 or 4 hours per day once he is healthy again.   

I'll stop now.  I'm sure general Hercules could come up with other things that need sorting out.

As far as the tournament goes, this upset in the top half adds to the big list of upsets in the bottom half and will send another shock-wave throughout.
I wouldn't be surprised to see another upset of one of the big guns remaining in the top half.   

Tommy Haas plays Roger Federer next.  Raonic plays Mr. Murray, OBE, and Spartan Stan Wawrinka plays Kevin Anderson.
It starts to get very interesting now for these players with Nadal out of the picture.  It's one less hurdle to climb to get to the final.

Respectfully,
masterclass

that is a perfect post. you could not be more spot on if you tried.


this is not rocket science and his camp should be figuring this out by now. basically he gave all he had last year. he delivered the world a year for the ages. 10 titles and #1 ranking that included 2 slams on 2 completely different surfaces.

but the point is that he went all out on the hard courts until he snatched the u.s. open. something had to give so his level started to drop rather significantly after the u.s. open.

fatigue is cumulative for him because of his demanding style of play. he continued his hard court activity which, in turn, continued to exact a toll on his body which would finally quit on him in Melbourne. sooner or later something had to give.


and then he goes farting around with nole in south America that nets him $10-$12 million. the cost there was much needed rest at home and the resumption of serious training at home. so he basically shows up with less than optimal preparation and even some accumulated fatigue. he never let the last season end.

so that $10 million meant a much more serious opportunity cost: he lost a slam which he could have easily won. and now his body is in dire straits still because he would not let the last season end.

he is not hurting for money. his 8 RG crowns are worth nearly $1 billion over the next 40 years.


and as you have pointed out, this is not a new revelation. this has been happening to him over and over again his entire career. he played and won more matches on the hard courts than anyone alive or dead in 2008.

so what happened? he took home the Australian Open but he was nearly dead by the time Oz ended. instead of going home and resting and recuperating, he went to Rotterdam where his body would finally quit on him. he had to finish the final against andy murray on 1 leg.

they offered him a massive appearance fee in Rotterdam so he felt obliged to go take it then try to put on a show for them. he worked way too hard for his wins there while already having been depleted of his mental and physical capital.

he does not know when to back off.

only clay can fix all that ails him now. his ground game is shot now as a result of his back. the bad back wont let him get into any kind of rhythm.

clay is forgiving and soft. he has to go get on it asap after a few days of rest. and even when resting you never take a day off in this sport. never.

vilas, lendl, and muster never did.

lance Armstrong never missed a single day of training. even after his heavy chemo treatments he would go on 50-60 mile training rides.

brian Gottfried practiced for 6 hours on his wedding day.