CAMELOT FANTASIES

Hello Mr. Tee.  I'm having trouble quoting posts on this forum.  It just says Loading at the top of the page, and never finishes.

Anyway, how do I rate Rafa's chances for the rest of the year?

Hmm, historically he has never been that great at the tail end of the year, so one wouldn't normally expect great things from him.  Also, he has played a pretty heavy schedule now for close to 8 months.  One would think that he might start tailing off a bit soon. 

Then again, he missed the early tournaments and Australian Open.  He might have something left and his form and confidence has been so good in itself recently ( I think better during the summer hard court than clay season, believe it or not), that he may just carry it to the rest of the year.  And as you infer, his chief competitors' form is a bit suspect, though Djokovic is not off by much.   

Still, traditionally the indoor courts don't play to his strengths.  They are not high bouncing.  So I suspect that if he plays someone that enjoys indoor and lower bouncing courts, Rafa could have trouble against them.  I personally think that it would help Rafa for 2014 if he were to not go all out in this latter part of the year.  He's done more than enough this year.

So specifically, given his draw in Shanghai, I wouldn't be surprise to see him make the final especially if he continue to play outdoors if  the remnants from the typhoon are gone.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him skip Basel. But if he goes there, I think there are other players that can challenge him there. Paris is tricky, since the WTF again follow it immediately.  How many of the WTF players, including Rafa will be willing to put in a big effort there?  I think Rafa is eligible to skip Paris (he has 2 exemptions).  So he might skip there or Basel, but probably not both. 

Given the current form of the traditionally tough players at the WTF and the O2 arena, one might think that this would be Rafa's best chance to finally win a year end championship.  But again, the surface just works against his game relative to others whom it favors.  It's about as tough for him to win there as it is for others to win at Roland Garros.  Can he win there?  Sure, if things go right for him.  Will he? Who the heck knows?  Federer could return to form and if he plays at even a fairly high level he is nearly unbeatable there.  Djokovic also likes the surface, and even Ferrer is pretty good on it.  I don't think it will be easy for Rafa.  But he's been almost unnaturally unbelievable this year, so who would count him out? Not me.

Respectfully,
masterclass